Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: Is leaning on one goalie a smart strategy?

Has there been a more disappointing player this season than Tyler Bertuzzi?

Bertuzzi couldn’t have possibly landed in a better spot in free agency, virtually being assured of playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Even with the Toronto Maple Leafs juggling their lines, Bertuzzi is still playing with Marner and John Tavares. That’s three elite forwards and all Bertuzzi has mustered is nine points in 27 games. 

The 28-year-old already had a 30-goal and 60-point season to his credit, so it’s not surprising that many people believed he could, at the very least, duplicate that with the most talented linemates he’s ever played with. It just goes to show you, though, that not everyone excels playing with good players. Not only do you need to have skill and speed, but you also have to be able to process the game quickly. 

Maybe more frustrating than the lack of points is the fact that Bertuzzi really isn’t doing anything else particularly well either. He’s been average for shots on goal and isn’t hitting much. It’s harder to keep a cold player when they aren’t at least helping you in other categories.

Bertuzzi was still a good bet given the upside he had because of his deployment, but there are no guarantees in fantasy hockey. Sometimes what seems like a sure thing is anything but. 

Let’s get to your questions:

The Anaheim Ducks have a lot of young talent and almost all those players you listed are worth rostering. With the announcement that Leo Carlsson is going to be playing more games going forward, there’s nothing wrong with picking him up. The one player I worry about here is Pavel Mintyukov. He’s really cooled off and when Jamie Drysdale returns, Mintyukov could get bumped off the top power play. If that happens, he may not be worth holding. 

Matthew Tkachuk is definitely worth a look because his shooting percentage is so low. That’s going to normalize at some point and his numbers should improve. Someone else I’d consider is Kirill Kaprizov. His shooting percentage is also down and the Minnesota Wild have been much better since the coaching change. Plus, Kaprizov is now playing with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy, a combination I like better for him going forward. Boldy has been especially good of late and has found his scoring touch. I’d expect Kaprizov to be much better the rest of the way.

There really isn’t a specific rule of thumb here. This comes up a lot and I always say, you should obviously never pass up on getting someone like Leon Draisaitl because you already have Connor McDavid and you’re worried about rostering too many Edmonton Oilers. There are times when it can be problematic when it comes to the schedule, though. For instance, if you have three or four Colorado Avalanche players and the Avs have a week where they play just once, it can really sink you in a head-to-head matchup. Generally, I’d say don’t overthink and get as many good players as you can and sort out the scheduling stuff on the fly. You should come out ahead in the long run even if you do have a thin week or two.

In theory, Pyotr Kochetkov should be a great option, but he’s been very inconsistent this season and the Carolina Hurricanes as a team haven’t been as good or strong defensively as we’re used to. I don’t have too much insight into Frederik Andersen, though it certainly sounded like it will be a long shot that he returns this season.

Kochetkov still has so much potential and upside if the Canes can really get on track, so he’s probably worth a gamble. We saw a similar situation with Stuart Skinner in Edmonton, as things looked very bleak for a while and Skinner has now been a huge asset over the past month. It’s possible the same thing happens with Kochetkov.

I have and I’ve been utilizing a similar strategy this season, maybe just not as extreme as yours. I’ve used Cam Talbot almost exclusively, with Jacob Markstrom and Alex Lyon filling in with a selective start here and there. I’ve found carrying only two goalies at a time frees up my roster to always have an extra skater, which I use as a streamer each week for someone who is playing well and has a great schedule. I try to hit my minimum goalie starts (three) and usually my numbers have been good enough to do fairly well in the save percentage, goals against and wins categories. I almost always lose total saves, though.

What I’ve found is I’m doing much better in volume categories likes shots, hits and blocks than I normally do. Since goalies are very unpredictable anyways, it’s not a bad idea to lean on skaters, who are more reliable for category coverage.

The only concern is an injury. If Thatcher Demko gets hurt it could be a real problem for you because I assume at this point in the year there’s not much sitting on waivers in your league. That’s why I’ve got Markstrom on IR and I’m holding Lyon for now. When Markstrom gets healthy I’ll decide which one of the two to keep to pair with Talbot. It might be a good idea to see what’s out there on waivers and see who could help insulate you if something happens to Demko. Otherwise, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with continuing with your strategy. Sometimes less is more with goaltenders.

I think the challenge for Bowen Byram is that he’s still behind Cale Makar and Devon Toews in the pecking order on the Avalanche blue line. Byram did quite well last year while Makar was injured, but unless he gets top power play time, there’s only so much he’ll be able to produce given his current deployment. In one-year leagues, I think Byram is only worth holding if it’s a deep multi-cat format. Otherwise, I’d say use him only as a streamer unless there’s an injury to Colorado’s top pair.

It feels like we get a Pierre-Luc Dubois question every week. I think he’s droppable in most leagues because of his lack of production, but that said, in a league like yours that’s very deep, there may not be that many better options out there. You should probably just ensure whoever you’re replacing him with does in fact have more upside.

I don’t see any concerns with keeping any of the three. If you had to drop one, though, I’d go with Lucas Raymond. I’m worried about his production when the Detroit Red Wings forward group is healthy and the top line becomes Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. Raymond had a good spot up there.

As for goalies, I’d take a chance on Akira Schmid if I was desperate. He’s on the strongest team and has the most upside.

I’d rank them exactly the way you have them there. Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the best option in my opinion and the Tampa Bay Lightning are not a bad team. Filip Gustavsson is playing a lot better, so he has more value in Lyon. Lyon is still competing with two other guys for playing time.

I like both players but I’d rather have Mason McTavish. He has more talent around him than Matty Beniers and McTavish is very valuable in leagues that count penalty minutes. Even though he’s missed a handful of games, McTavish is still pacing for over 70 points.

I think you probably have to. Kyle Connor for Aleksander Barkov is a pretty fair trade on its own, but getting Alex Ovechkin is a nice bonus. I know Ovechkin has had a down year, but maybe you get lucky and he regains some of his form and he’s still been okay for hits and shots. It also helps you in the short term with Connor set to miss a couple of months.

From Threads: Would Seth Jarvis for Mike Matheson or Sean Durzi work as a fair trade you’d go for? Would like to fill out my D-core a little more. 12 team, H2H points – G, A, PPP, SHP, Hits, Blocks, PIM, SOG, GWG.

I think Seth Jarvis for Sean Durzi is a little more fair. Mike Matheson has tremendous value for all the category coverage he provides and I think you’d have a tough time getting him for just Jarvis. You could always aim high and see how it goes, but Durzi is probably more realistic. 

From Threads: What stat do you think is more valuable in fantasy hockey: goals or assists, and why? The conventional wisdom is because goals happen less frequently, they are more valuable. But doesn’t that also mean they are less predictable and therefore more likely to screw you with variance?

Goals are more valuable to me. Yes, what you’re saying is true, most goal scorers are streaky and will go quiet here and there, but it’s a lot easier to get assists because they can give out two for every goal. It’s also much harder to find goals than assists on the waiver wire. That’s why elite goal scorers like Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak are so highly coveted in the top 10.