Five thoughts on how the Maple Leafs can find more offence this season

TORONTO — Three games into the Toronto Maple Leafs season, it wasn’t hard to see that this was going to be a work in progress for a while. Not that the team wasn’t going to be good; they’ll be fine enough with the potential to go in either direction based on coaching, health, player additions, luck and all those other things. But the forward group all just felt very new, didn’t it?

Nic Roy was new, Dakota Joshua was new, Matias Maccelli was new and Easton Cowan was new. The lines were all new, the role for some guys was new, and it just looked like a group of players who hadn’t yet found any chemistry because, well, they were new, and they hadn’t yet found any chemistry.

But early on as things started to take shape, the question, How do the Leafs score in the wake of Mitch Marner’s departure? rose to the top of the “big questions” leaderboard from my co-host Nick Kypreos on Tuesday. It’s not an unreasonable question, and one that surely GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube put real thought into this off-season.

I made the claim that I think the Leafs will again finish top-10 in scoring, a year removed from finishing seventh. I had a ninth-to-12th-place finish in mind, but it’s talk radio, so why not go for it and bet on the high end?

Watching the Leafs score against Nashville’s back-up goalie with the Predators on a back-to-back with travel doesn’t help us with conclusions much, but it did bring to mind some things the Leafs cannot do if they hope to make me look smart, and continue to score at a rate similar to last season.

I’m talking about things beyond “Auston Matthews scores more,” which is likely to happen anyway, if the last two games tell us anything.

So, let’s talk about what those things are that will deliver the Leafs a top 10 offence:

No. 1: Don’t give up on Matias Maccelli because the numbers aren’t there early

Through four games now with the Leafs, Maccelli has no goals and one assist, which is about the least-just stat line I’ve ever seen … right behind William Nylander having seven points through four games despite playing some of his least effective hockey in Toronto.

Nylander actually redirected a great Maccelli dish off the post, which came after Simon Benoit fired a great Maccelli dish wide, which came after several other Leafs couldn’t capitalize on Maccelli-inspired opportunities.

Maccelli has been on the ice for the third-most "high danger chances per 60", via Natural Stat Trick, among Leafs forwards, behind only Matthews and Matthew Knies. By expected goals for per 60, he’s behind Matthews, Knies, and Cowan.

The Leafs don’t have a ton of guys who can pull a rabbit out of a hat, but Maccelli’s one who can. His ice time was around 14-15 minutes the first two games, then down to about 12 minutes and change in games three and four. The Leafs cannot afford to get caught looking at results when the process is there, and that’s saying something for a guy in a new system, with new linemates, on a new team under a new coach.

I know it went badly for Maccelli last year, but he’s off to a good start even if the numbers aren’t there. Keep playing him, and they’ll come.

No. 2: Bobby McMann can’t be the whipping boy either

If McMann could play like the best version of himself for 82 games, he’d make $10 million a year. But he makes $1.35 million a year, yet seems to be held to the $10 million standard. When he shows a hint of not being at his best, Berube has no problem taking away opportunities and punting him down the lineup.

Now to be clear, it's totally fine to demote guys who don’t have their A game. It’s totally fine, were that a thing the Leafs did with consistency across the board, but for whatever reason, it seems to apply doubly for McMann.

He’s fast as hell and has a laser shot. Good players get the benefit of the doubt when they’re “off” or when they’re just not at their best. They get to play through it, because you can still contribute when not at your best. Yes, when he’s bad, punt him down. But at this point, he deserves the benefit of the doubt on those so-so nights too, as he can break a game open even if he’s been quiet prior.

No. 3: Morgan Rielly can’t be the only D-man who thinks offence

Two seasons ago, Jake McCabe scored eight times, and that was about the low end of what the total could’ve been. He can rip it, he can skate, and since the Leafs need the offence to come from more places, I’d be OK with him taking more chances up the ice, particularly if Chris Tanev is going to be his partner.

It’s safe back there pal, have a go sometimes.

Last year McCabe scored just twice, and they could use him to bounce back towards the season that saw him closer to 30 points.

Now, Oliver Ekman-Larsson had 29 points for the Leafs last year, and he’s again going to be playing softer competition with a defensive-minded partner. I’m not saying he needs to be the 20-plus goal, 50-plus point version of himself, but it would be a big development if he could get well into the 30s this year, too. He looks excellent so far, particularly on the offensive end (and because he’s greasy, but that’s not the point of this article).

There’s all this fuss about Rielly contributing offence again, and he’s been great there through four games. But other D can chip in too, and pull the Leafs “points by defencemen” totals out of the league basement.

No. 4: The power play needs to rub some dirt on itself

The Leafs have had a great (regular season) power play for years, and a few years back even led the league in conversion rate when Rielly quarterbacked it. But with Mitch Marner controlling the puck, things got a little more Harlem Globetrottery, which is a little shinier than this current group may be built for.

What they do have is pure shooters in every spot (but Rielly’s), and big bodies who are great in tight. Knies is great on screens and tips and rebounds. John Tavares is a crease-area magician with his low centre of gravity, hockey sense, and great hands. Shots from the point can lead to Matthews and Nylander coming downhill looking for high rebounds (the most dangerous kind), and it could all be very ugly and effective.

So, bang bang.

The Leafs PP has also gone ice cold in the playoffs most years, going back some time. This type of power play – screen, shoot, and crash – can be very effective where it’s a matter of muscle, will, and reaction time. You can rotate well all you like on the PK, but pucks to the net become something less artful, rendering those plans useless.

The Leafs' four PP forwards are strong as hell. Use it.

And finally,

No. 5: Nic Roy isn’t a fourth-liner

Maybe there are bigger fish to fry than this (like Nylander not playing great, though he’ll find it at some point), but Roy has played under 12.5 minutes in three of his four games as a Leaf, averaging 12:04.

His last four years he’s averaged these numbers for TOI:

15:13
15:27
16:18
16:15

Vegas won the Cup with him playing 15-plus minutes in the playoffs, and he scored 11 points in 22 games. Those past four years he’s roughly a half-a-point-per-game player. They need that from him.

He’s just 28, huge, smart, and has good hands. The Leafs can’t look at him, decide he's a “shut down guy” and make him the new David Kampf. They gotta let Roy be who he is.

All told, the Leafs still have plenty of tools to create offence compared to most teams. Yes, they’ll badly miss what Marner did for them on that side of the ice, no doubt about it. But they’re trying to build towards something more sustainable in the playoffs, and so with that, they have to be sure not to squander the tools they have. You can’t blunt your own axe.

It’s only four games in, and there’s tons of time for chemistry to take. As you wait for that, there’s going to be growing pains, and so you can’t view those off-nights as indictments of players, but rather give them more chances to find their way while the team at large works to do the same.