Five ways the early NHL season is altering pre-season predictions

Part of the reason hockey media and fans alike make pre-season predictions is to establish a baseline for our expectations. When my co-host Nick Kypreos picks Utah to represent the West in the Final, it’s less of a “prediction,” and more of a statement: “I, more than most other people, believe Utah is going to be genuinely very good this season.” 

We’re establishing baseline opinions.

On Real Kyper and Bourne we talked through our pre-season thoughts, and it’s funny how after all of one period into the first game of the season you can start to question what you thought just an hour prior. 

So, after teams have played just a handful of games, let’s look at some of my biggest recalibrations, a few of which you may share.

First off …

The Washington Capitals went from “playoff contender” to one of the Cup favourites

This is the rare NHL season where I don’t believe that one team is head and shoulders above the rest, meaning the door is open at the top (I still picked the Hurricanes to win, but they’re hardly a lock). The Capitals are coming off a year where they missed the playoffs by four points, but with their off-season additions and internal growth, it looks like they’ve skipped a few tiers on their way to the “Cup contenders” group.

Washington has looked unbelievable, creating chances at will. Ryan Leonard is on their fourth line with Justin Sourdif. The Alex Tuch-Pierre-Luc Dubois-Tom Wilson line has to be a combination of the most size and speed ever put together on a single line. And they are little compared to the line with the Protas boys. Jordan Kyrou is just a secondary scorer on the team, and their goalie Logan Thompson has been a Vezina-level guy the past couple seasons. 

I liked Washington fine heading into the season. A playoff team for sure. But after just a few games, and picturing them in a playoff series, I think they may be more than that.

The Rangers actually have some juice

Last year they couldn’t score a goal at home, they finished dead last in the Eastern Conference and, beyond adding Pavel Dorofeyev, it didn’t seem like they loaded up in some huge way that should’ve greatly changed their fortunes. But five games in and they’ve got the third-best expected goals-for rate, and they’re 4-1-0 with a plus-eight goal differential. 

The re-shaping of their defence corps with Marcus Pettersson, Sean Durzi and the young Alberts Smits has helped. Alexis Lafreniere seems ready to take a step, Gabe Perreault is a threat, and they’ve just started hot out of the gates. I don’t think they’re a playoff team, so I haven’t flipped entirely, but they definitely have my attention as a concerned Islanders fan.

I’d say along with maybe Winnipeg, the Rangers have had the best start among teams you weren’t so sure about heading into the year. 

Related to the first two points…

Are we sure the Atlantic is the powerhouse division?

Last year the Atlantic had five teams with 99 or more points(!), while 95 won the Pacific Division. The only two teams that didn’t hit 90 points from the Atlantic were the Leafs and Panthers, who were coming off a second-round playoff appearance and a Stanley Cup win, respectively. The division was loaded. 

This year we expected the same but even better, as Toronto and Florida seemed poised to get back in the mix. I figured Montreal was ready to challenge for the Presidents' Trophy (I think I still do), but they’ve gotten out of the gates slow after an opening win. The Sabres, coming off 109 points, have just been ho-hum after some off-season roster losses. Detroit’s a tire fire. Florida’s been fine but lost Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand.

As of Friday, the Atlantic has just three teams with a positive goal differential. The Metro has five teams above level, and the Central has six (with the Pacific also sporting three). 

With Washington and the Rangers rising, the Canes being defending champs, and no rebuilding clubs, the Metro looks pretty tough top to bottom (assuming Philly is better than their start). The Central has four Cup hopefuls, who are all currently trailing the Winnipeg Jets. 

So far, the Atlantic just looks middling.

Elias Pettersson isn’t dead yet

I’m not sure that I had written him off entirely, but it was starting to seem like a bounce-back year might just bring him to the level of being “good,” at best. I mean he has been really struggling, which has been amply covered. So, let’s cover it going the other way. 

Even if Pettersson didn’t have any points this year and was just throwing the body like he has been (his 20 hits are the second-most in the NHL), I’d have been impressed by his effort. He’s engaged. But to also have eight points (tied for fifth in the league) along with 20 shots (tied for third in the league), and to be plus-three on the Canucks through five games is just not something I saw coming.

I’d say the point here is less about the obvious question (can he sustain this?) and more about the epiphany that, hey, this elite player is still within Pettersson, which has to be encouraging for the Canucks.

And finally,

The short pre-season and launching into the regular season has been just fine

Heading into the season, I thought the hockey was going to stink for a while. And, let's be real, there has been some sloppy play. But as it turns out I, like most fans, do not care if these guys get into playoff-level order before playing competitive regular season hockey. What we want is all the stars playing, and everyone trying because of the stakes. Pre-season used to drag forever, only for teams to pick the same rosters they would’ve anyway.

The mistakes have been plentiful, and it’s probably been a nightmare to goaltend behind, but the new short pre-season and lengthened regular season also gave us something else great: regular season hockey in September. The start has been fantastic.

As long as the final tally of injuries doesn’t come in much higher (with the lack of extra game-level reps), I think it’s fair to say that the players have liked this better, and it’s been an improvement for the fans. We’re well under way, and Oct. 9 is usually right around the time the NHL's regular season would've just been getting started before.