Four steps to how the Maple Leafs should approach the off-season

When it was time to sign UFAs in 2024, much like the running of the bulls in Pamplona, a few people were likely to get gored. The rewards are not often great (congrats on not crippling yourself), while the risk of damage is very real. 

In the case of the NHL, it’s the GMs who have to get out in front of the danger and take those chances, and free agency is just about the only time of year when we see them break their typically stoic postures and get active.

And boy, was 2024 a blood bath. We don’t need to rehash it all, but Nashville got carved up, handing out big deals to Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei, none of whom lived up to their new big contracts en route to a tough team finish. Elias Lindholm struggled in Boston after landing his big deal, too. There were a few names for whom it went maybe about as expected – Jake DeBrusk and Chandler Stephenson come to mind – but by and large the only “This seems like a big deal” signing that ended up correctly being a big deal was Jake Guentzel, who scored 41 times for Tampa Bay. 

Teams cling to the hope of those successes, but there are numerous horns out there, which is why it's often better to just jump the guardrails and sit on the sidelines.

With all that in mind, this is an article about what the Toronto Maple Leafs should do on July 1, when free agents are available to be signed to new contracts.

Step 1: Start where you can find value

Every year, the bulk of “successful UFA signings” are guys who sign for somewhere between league minimum and $1.5 million, and end up being real contributors. 

Last year, the Boston Bruins signed Cole Koepke for league minimum, and he ended up dressing in 73 games, scoring 10 times, finishing second among team forwards in hits, and ending the season with a plus-1 rating on a team that had a minus-50 goal differential. You’d take that on your fourth line, no? 

Well, Koepke is available and shouldn’t cost too much more than last year, but you’re also searching for next season’s breakout players who just need a shot. For years the Leafs have had a fourth line without a clear identity, and while it was much better this past season, the focus of their fourth line was exclusively on defence while lacking any kind of bite (let alone offence) as a group. 

So, what would you like that fourth line to be? Mikey Eyssimont is an interesting name, as he isn’t afraid to drop the gloves (he’s at least willing), and I think he has a little more offensive upside than he’s shown in the league to date. He can really skate. 

There’s value to be found in this price range. 

Step 2: Don’t overpay those guys

There are always good bottom six players available in UFA. I like Brandon Tanev as much as the next guy, but you can’t let yourself become convinced he’s going to give you a ton more than someone like the aforementioned Koepke. Tanev had the same 10 goals last year, had slightly less ice time, and was minus-12. I legitimately like the player and would love his hustle and heart in the Leafs' bottom six. I love that he stirs it up. But you just can’t give Tanev multiple millions and years because he’s a name brand. He’s not worth twice as much (or more) than some of the other players in this pool.

Step 3: If you’re going to pay, find out who fits your exact puzzle, and is worth the bidding war

It’s not free to get a quality player, which is why UFAs cost a bit more. The “asset” it costs you is just additional cap space, but that is slightly less precious as we move forward. So, is there anyone who might cost a bit more than you’d like, but scratches your precise itch? 

I love Nikolaj Ehlers, but I don’t think he quite does it. Yes, the Leafs need to add talent after the departure of Mitch Marner, but they’re going to have to do it via trade. Ehlers would be keeping the team stylistically the same, just downgraded from Marner.

Yes, Brad Marchand scratches that exact itch, which is why the rumours about him making a bit more than you’d expect make sense. But the rumour about him making $9 million per season – for four years! – feels like it pushes this logic to its most absurd boundaries. 

When shopping for anything I very much believe in paying more money for something you actually want and need than buying something cheaper that doesn’t quite work. But boy, it would be a tough start for Marchand's time in Toronto if he shows up as all the previous core players did, first focusing on maximizing personal gain while hamstringing the team's financial flexibility. That lesson has been taught often here, and the fans don’t love watching it.

Still, Marchand's fit is perfect. So, we’ll see how bad the Leafs want to make that happen.

Now, the other name that makes me sound like I’m contradicting myself is Tanner Jeannot, partially because I just said you can’t overpay bottom-six guys. But I like a lot about the fit. A lot, a lot. He just turned 28 and checks in at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds. He’s got a 40-goal WHL season and a 24-goal NHL season, to go with being someone not just willing to fight, but who seems like he wants to fight. Yes, there may be some injury concern, but this guy is a legit intimidator. They got rid of Mason Marchment because they didn’t think he could stay healthy, that’s one heck of a guess on which to pass on a good player. 

I have a ton of respect for the way Steven Lorentz and David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok play. But it would nice to have maybe one guy on the roster who was capable of getting mad.

Step 4: Work the phones

I’ve said this over and again: the Leafs can’t get from where they are to Stanley Cup contender via free agency alone. While everyone is making moves and clearing cap space, we’ve seen a handful of deals already. Chris Kreider, Marchment, Evander Kane, and Trevor Zegras have all been moved, and not for massive returns. 

The Leafs have to be all over that market, as someone like Tomas Hertl makes perfect sense if you can get him out of Vegas. William Karlsson would be a compromise, but at least one with a more palatable contract. Whatever the case may be, it’s tough to know who’s available, but this is the store in which the Leafs need to be shopping. And if that involves trading current roster players like Morgan Rielly or Brandon Carlo or Max Domi or Jarnkrok, or even if it involves more picks, it just has to happen. 

For the Leafs, losing Marner should be viewed as the impetus for an overhaul, not just to try and replace what’s left and to get back to where they were before. They can’t replace him in free agency, but there are different paths to building a winning team than the one the Leafs have previously taken. 

We know Brad Treliving has good relationships with just about every GM in the league. It’s time to for him to show the value of those connections by getting some meaningful deals across the line.