If anyone can do it, it’s him.
That’s the popular sentiment when it comes to Connor McDavid’s theoretical race to 200 points this season. This isn’t something McDavid is openly chasing, but his hot start has people dreaming that the seemingly impossible could be realistic for the greatest player in the world.
The Edmonton Oilers forward hung five points on the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday night, bringing his season total to 31 in only 10 outings. It’s only the fourth time in NHL history a player has reached 30 points in his first 10 games, and McDavid also set a record for the most assists through the first nine games of a season. He’s now on pace for 260 points.
Only Wayne Gretzky has crossed the 200-point mark and he did it on four different occasions. Mario Lemieux fell just short with a 199-point campaign, so getting to 200 would put McDavid in select company. McDavid isn’t going to average more than three points per game all season, but there’s still plenty of room for his pace to slow and still get to 200.
What’s behind McDavid’s even more torrid-than-normal start? There are a few things that have been catalysts for him stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis, so let’s take a look at how sustainable each one of them is.
The power play
Edmonton’s power play is normally very good, and it’s started the season at a great rate once again. After three more power-play goals Thursday, the Oilers' man advantage is now clicking at 35.3 per cent, with only the Utah Mammoth ahead of in the league rankings. That number may seem like it’s inevitably going to drop off, but the Oilers have proven they can sustain close to that level of potency while a man up.
Here’s what Edmonton did on the power play in the past four seasons:
• 2025-26: 30.6 per cent
• 2024-25: 23.7 per cent
• 2023-24: 26.3 per cent
• 2022-23: 32.4 per cent
The Oilers have finished at well over 30 per cent in two of the past four campaigns, so even if this year’s man advantage regresses, it’s unlikely to see a sharp decline. It’s not inconceivable that Edmonton could continue to operate at a number over 30 per cent for the entire season.
McDavid’s career high in power-play points came in that aforementioned 2022-23 season with 71, and he’s trending to blow that out of the water this year. He currently has 11 power-play points in 10 games, which would put him at 92 for the year if he continues on this pace. Maybe 92 is a stretch, but around 80 and a new career high doesn’t feel impossible given the way McDavid is playing and how good the Oilers power play is.
Shooting percentages
This isn’t just McDavid we’re concerned about here, as the players who are frequent recipients of his passes are just as important. McDavid is averaging more than two assists per game at the moment, and even if he doesn’t get to 200 points, it’s starting to feel more and more like a certainty he’ll break his own personal best of 100 helpers.
Let’s start with McDavid, who is shooting 32 per cent — more than double his career average. History tells us that’s going to come down to somewhere around the 15 per cent mark by the time the season concludes. It could fluctuate a bit, but McDavid has never shot better than 18.2 per cent in any season. Evan Bouchard’s number is even more inflated. Bouchard has a career average of just 7.4 per cent, and today he sits at 23.3 per cent. There’s a similar story with Vasily Podkolzin, who is typically around 11 per cent, but is now firing at almost 28 per cent. Expect both Bouchard’s and Podkolzin’s finishing to slow down at some point, which will in turn likely see McDavid’s assist pace eventually drop.
That said, Leon Draisaitl’s shooting percentage is up from his career average, but not nearly as much as the other three. He’s at 29 per cent, and Draisaitl has three seasons under his belt where he concluded the campaign at better than 21 per cent. Maybe Draisaitl regresses a little, but it shouldn’t be that steep.
Overall, this is an area that we can expect to hurt McDavid’s chances at 200 as the season goes on due to regression.
The schedule
In such a small sample size, it would be remiss not to discuss how the schedule has aided McDavid’s hot start. As it stands, six teams (Vancouver, Calgary, Seattle, Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose) from the Pacific Division rank in the bottom third league-wide when it comes to goals against. That includes five teams the Oilers have already played.
Vancouver and Calgary specifically are struggling to keep the puck out of the net, with both teams allowing more than four goals per night on average. The Oilers feasted on the Canucks during the first two games of the season, scoring 14 times. McDavid had seven points in those two games alone.
Edmonton obviously won’t play the Canucks every night, and after a short pre-season, more teams should start to refine their defensive structure as the season rolls along. McDavid will see tougher and less friendly matchups more regularly. That said, the Pacific figures to be the easiest division of the bunch and the Oilers are going to play those teams more than anybody else, so that should help McDavid’s cause when it comes to putting up a few more massive games.
Then again, he’s scored five points twice in the past week against both Carolina and Utah. So maybe it doesn’t really matter who McDavid plays at the moment.
Coaching and deployment
This could be the biggest X-factor in McDavid reaching 200 points. Mike Babcock rarely played Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner together during his time in Toronto, but he’s really loaded up the Oilers top line. McDavid and Draisaitl have played together well over 70 per cent of the time this season at even strength, which is a huge departure from recent years.
A season ago the duo skated together only 40 per cent of the time. In 2024-25, it was just around 30 per cent. Close to 90 per cent of McDavid’s points at even strength this year have come with Draisaitl on the ice, and when you include power-play time, those two are playing together essentially for the majority of the game. Podkolzin has also fit in really well on that unit, using his hustle and hockey IQ to notch seven goals in 10 games.
The Oilers have tried players like Jeff Skinner and Connor Brown in recent years next to McDavid who couldn’t hang and eventually were shuffled down the lineup. So, if Podkolzin has staying power, it’s only going to make that line more formidable going forward.
The real question: how long will Babcock keep them together? He’s already mentioned how he doesn’t want to lean on them too heavily, but had little choice with all the injuries Edmonton was dealing with early in the season.
Now Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are back, and eventually Babcock could be forced to split up McDavid and Draisaitl to create more balance throughout the lineup. Both Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins are fine talents, but neither is arguably a top-five player in the world like Draisaitl is. The opportunity for McDavid to continue on this pace greatly increases if he’s stapled next to Draisaitl, and his chances at 200 points are going to become a lot more realistic.
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