The questions surrounding Auston Matthews were becoming increasingly pointed.
Is his body breaking down? Is he past his peak? Does he owe his success to Mitch Marner?
As the Toronto Maple Leafs’ season appeared to be unraveling before the NHL’s holiday break, Matthews’ performance was being dissected in every possible way. But since the break ended, the Matthews of old has returned. Toronto’s captain has put the team on his back, scoring 11 goals in his past 13 games to revive the Maple Leafs’ playoff hopes.
“He’s feeling it,” Maple Leafs defenceman Troy Stecher told reporters earlier this week. “He’s a big reason why we’re having the success we’re having. That’s what you want out of your captain, is to drag the rest of the guys into the fight, and he’s definitely done that.”
Matthews does not share much with reporters, so he has not provided detailed insight into his turnaround. But it is evident by watching him that he has been far more aggressive offensively over the past month. Matthews is averaging a league-high 5.38 scoring chances per game since the holiday break, which is up from 3.35 over his first 31 games.
More specifically, Matthews has generated most of his offence from directly in front of the net. He has recorded 27 shots on net from the inner slot (2.08 per game) since Dec. 27, resulting in eight goals. (When Matthews scored a franchise-record 69 goals in 2023-24, he averaged 1.46 shots on net from the inner slot, where he netted 33 of his goals.)
It also appears that Matthews has more zip in his shots and legs. Five of his 10 hardest shots this season, as well as his two fastest skating speeds, have come since Dec. 27, according to NHL Edge. Only Edmonton’s Connor McDavid has generated more rush scoring chances than Matthews since then.
“I think over the last month or so, I’ve just felt like I’ve had the puck a lot in the middle of the ice where I want it with speed,” Matthews told reporters last week.
Mitch Marner returns to Toronto on Sportsnet
Mitch Marner and the Golden Knights visit Toronto for the first time since Marner's move to Vegas. You can watch the game Friday on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.
Broadcast schedule
It is understandable if Matthews needed time to adjust to life without Marner. Across their final five seasons as teammates, Matthews and Marner shared the ice for more than 3,500 minutes at five-on-five. They were utterly dominant at times, generating 60.8 per cent of the expected goals during their minutes. Matthews’ production did not waver without Marner; he actually averaged more goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five (1.71) when they were apart than together (1.56).
After cycling through multiple different sets of wingers before the holiday break, Matthews has settled on a line between Bobby McMann and Max Domi. Their numbers do not pop off the page (48.2 XGF per cent at even strength since Dec. 27), but they have started developing chemistry.
“(Matthews and I have) played together for a while now,” Domi recently told The Athletic, “and he’s so good around the net, you’ve just (got to) find his tape. That’s my only goal, usually. So I try to give it to him as much as I can, obviously.”
With Matthews driving the bus, the Maple Leafs’ offensive efficiency has noticeably improved since late December. Their shot quality per game in all situations, which ranked 30th in the league at the holiday break, has jumped to 14th during their 8-2-4 run.
A revitalized power play spearheaded by new assistant coach Steve Sullivan has helped considerably as well. Toronto is 12th in shot quality on the power play per two minutes under Sullivan, compared to 27th before his promotion from the AHL. As a result, the Maple Leafs have scored on 28.1 per cent of their power-play opportunities over the past 14 games, sixth best in the league during that span.
Even more responsibility will fall on Matthews now that William Nylander is out with a groin injury that will sideline him indefinitely. Matthew Knies is also playing through a nagging lower-body injury as the Maple Leafs enter a grueling portion of their schedule.
This is when Matthews must show his mettle.
“It affects the rest of the group and elevates everybody’s game,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube told reporters about Matthews’ impact earlier this week. “He’s been excellent for quite some time and driving play for us. I think our team really is feeding off that, too.”
