The race for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference — a.k.a. “The Colorado Avalanche Sacrificial Lamb Invitational” — is wide open with two weeks left in the regular season.
Five teams are within four points of the final playoff spot held by the Los Angeles Kings. That includes the Winnipeg Jets, who were 11 points behind at the Olympic break but have points in 14 of their past 18 games (10-4-4). Winnipeg qualifying for the playoffs would represent a remarkable turnaround after sitting last place in the NHL as recently as Jan. 8.
“We just said, ’Take care of our own business,’ and that’s what we’re trying to do,” Jets coach Scott Arniel told reporters after Winnipeg’s 4-3 overtime win against the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday. “We got ourselves here, but we can’t take our foot off the gas.”
So how have the Jets pulled this off? Naturally, Connor Hellebuyck comes to mind first. But the reigning MVP has just been solid since starring at the Olympics for Team USA, saving 6.24 goals above expected in 15 games. Hellebuyck ranks 18th in that category out of 31 goaltenders who have made at least 10 appearances since Feb. 25. He has stolen one win and made 10 quality starts in 15 tries (66.7 per cent) since winning gold in Italy.
Neither special-teams unit is firing on all cylinders. The Jets’ power play is second worst in the league since the Olympic break at 12.5 per cent, and their penalty kill is performing at a 76.3 per cent clip (22nd). Even at five-on-five, the Jets have not been threatening offensively. Their shot quality per 60 minutes ranks 25th over the past five weeks.
Which again begs the question: How have the Jets pulled this off? Perhaps the answer is simple: The other teams in the wild-card race — Los Angeles, San Jose, Nashville, Seattle and St. Louis — are all decidedly average. That is true, but the Jets must be doing something right if they have the seventh-best points percentage (.667) since the league resumed play.
As usual, top-line forwards Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are driving Winnipeg’s offence, having been on the ice for 13 of the team’s 32 goals at five-on-five across the past 18 games. Secondary sources of offence, however, have recently emerged. Forward Cole Perfetti has recorded points in five consecutive games and 12 of his past 18 for a total of six goals and seven assists. The Jets have been winning Perfetti’s minutes on the scoreboard (9-6) and under the surface (55.0 xGF%).
Perfetti has been part of an ice-tilting second line with forward Gabriel Vilardi and captain Adam Lowry that has out-chanced opponents 67-41 at five-on-five, including 28-16 off the cycle.
“We’ve had a lot of good looks,” Vilardi told reporters last month. “We’re not necessarily scoring as much as we’d like, especially since after the break. I felt like before the break, we kind of got in a groove there. And then coming out of the break, we weren’t together for a bit, then we were together. We’ve had a lot of good opportunities.”
Injuries to defencemen Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk, plus the departures of Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn at the trade deadline, forced the Jets to get creative on the back end. That presented an opportunity for rookie Elias Salomonsson, who has helped the Jets generate 57 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five during the team’s surge up the standings. Overall, Winnipeg has played great team defence, ranking ninth since Feb. 25 in shot quality against per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
In two weeks, the Jets could become the fifth reigning Presidents’ Trophy winner to miss the playoffs and the second in as many years, joining last season’s New York Rangers. All of Winnipeg’s remaining opponents are either in a playoff position or within four points of the final spot in their conferences. But with two of the league’s most dynamic forwards and a big-game goaltender on their side, you can’t count out the Jets quite yet.
“We were saying it all year when we were struggling, but this is a team that knows how to win hockey games and has won a lot of games in the regular season the last number of years,” Morrissey told reporters Tuesday. “Of course, there’s always new faces, but a large part of this group has been together and has had success in the regular season (and) down the stretch when the games tighten up and when it matters most.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
