Two weeks ago today, the 84-game NHL season began. In that short time, we've seen some wild games (the 9-7 Oilers-Canucks result comes to mind), some concerning injuries (Igor Shesterkin is out for the season) and a number of trade possibilities yet to be consummated.
It's overreaction season, when pre-season predictions and your willingness to stick with them are put to the test. No one has clinched or been eliminated from the playoffs yet of course. It's early, after all, but...
... but there have been signs, for better or worse, about how things might play out this season. Tuesday, Oct. 13 brings the return of the Frozen Frenzy, when all 32 NHL teams play and all 16 games have staggered start times so you can watch as much as your heart desires. It's also a good touchpoint to see anything surprising or concerning going on around the league.
So here is our look at the starts around the league.
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Anaheim Ducks
It's early, but... the Ducks have let too many leads get away, or almost get away, from them. A four-goal lead over Vegas after two periods ended in a 4-3 win. They blew two one-goal leads over Florida, but won in OT. They led Edmonton by two after one period, then allowed five unanswered goals. Even Calgary was able to claw back a couple of times before the Ducks won the game in the third. The points have been coming, so it's not a reason to panic, but too much this season head coach Joel Quenneville has already talked about the "momentum" turning against them in games. Something to watch, as one of the narratives around this team coming into the season was how they'd be hurt by all of what they lost from the blue line.
Boston Bruins
It's early, but... Fraser Minten is quickly becoming an X-Factor for this team. The 22-year-old has played with nearly every line already, and when he's been out there, Boston has created 53.6 per cent of the chances. And, when head coach Marco Sturm was looking for some offence when his team trailed the Minnesota Wild, he called on Minten to move up between J.J. Peterka and David Pastrnak. That line didn't score a goal, but did outshoot the Wild 5-1. On Thursday last week, Sturm moved his lines around some more and put Peterka on Line 2 with Minten, and the centre responded with three points over the weekend.
Buffalo Sabres
It's early, but... the calls for Connor Hellebuyck are growing louder. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 59th of 63 goalies in Goals Saved Above Expected, and although Buffalo is among the best teams in expected 5-on-5 goal differential, they've actually been outscored 13-10 in that game state. There is no time to waste in a tight division, and as the Sabres sit 14th in the East in goal differential, the problem is squarely in the crease right now.
Carolina Hurricanes
It's early, but... Alexander Nikishin is not getting any more leverage as his contract impasse goes on. The defending Cup champions are rolling, in their usual spot dominating shot attempts while also leading the league in shots allowed per game. An RFA without the ability to sign an offer sheet, Nikishin's absence has had almost no impact yet, leaving the Canes without any pressure to come to a resolution. At this rate, they'll be adding a quality defenceman to an already dominant team when he has to give in on demands.
Columbus Blue Jackets
It's early, but... they've been one of the slower teams in the league. According to NHL Edge data, the Blue Jackets are 30th in max skating speed, 32nd in speed bursts over 20 m.p.h., and 31st in skating distance. Compared to last season (16th, 10th and 11th, respectively), this is a far tumble for the team.
It's early, but... this is looking bad. Like, historically bad. In the salary cap era, the lowest single-season goals-per-game mark was 1.83 by the 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres. These Flames are currently at 1.60. The highest goals-against per game in that time is 4.09 by the 2020-21 Anaheim Ducks. Calgary is at 5.40. And the lowest points percentage in a full season since the cap system was implemented was by the 2023-24 San Jose Sharks at .287. These Flames are at 0 with an 0-5-0 record and a minus-19 goal differential. Let's not bring up the 1974-75 Washington Capitals yet.
Chicago Blackhawks
It's early, but... are we sure the Blackhawks are going to start taking a positive step out of the rebuild? Having to start without Connor Bedard left a rather large hole in the lineup, so perhaps it will get better when he returns (possibly Tuesday), but their start has not been encouraging. The Hawks are 30th in the league in expected goals percentage, and only Philadelphia (a tire fire unto themselves) have a higher expected goals against. Bowen Byram, their big summer pickup and long-term signing, hasn't scored a point yet, and the Hawks have been outscored 7-2 when he's been on the ice at five-on-five. In a competitive division, they may still be the punching bag.
Colorado Avalanche
It's early, but... do we have a bit of a goalie controversy brewing here? Last season Scott Wedgewood earned more starts, had better stats in every department, and started 10 of Colorado's 13 playoff games over Mackenzie Blackwood. But so far this season, Blackwood has been given four of the five starts and, though he has a winning record, his goals saved above expected is running in the negative — 60th out of 63 goalies. Blackwood is signed for another three years and is 29 years old versus the 34-year-old Wedgewood on an expiring deal, so we know who the long-term choice is. But who's the better of the two right now?
Dallas Stars
It's early, but... can Jake Oettinger step up into the Vezina picture? That was surely the expectation when he was breaking into the league in his early-to-mid-20s, but he's only finished top five in voting for the award once, and that was back in 2023. Though some of his numbers dipped last season, he was still above league average and was well in the positive by GSAE. But just being "above league average" is not what the Stars were buying into when they paid him $8.25 million on the cap. Oettinger is a fine goalie, but if he hits his full potential as a Vezina contender, Dallas might get a leg up on the Central. He has two shutouts already and leads the league in save percentage.
Detroit Red Wings
It's early, but... the Alex DeBrincat-Emmitt Finnie-Michael Brandsegg-Nygard line has been a nice positive. There have been 63 line combinations that have played at least 30 minutes together so far this season, and this Red Wings trio ranks sixth in expected goals percentage behind some pretty heady lines.
It's early, but... Evan Bouchard is off and running in the Norris Trophy race and clinching his spot on the next best-on-best Team Canada more than a year out. How silly it looks today that he wasn't on the Olympic roster? Two weeks into the season, Bouchard is tied for the league lead in goals, and he has only been on the ice for one five-on-five goal against. Heck, continuing near this pace, he'd have to be in the Hart picture.
Florida Panthers
It's early, but... will their offence be dangerous enough? The No. 1 concern for the Panthers coming into the season was if 36-year-old Jacob Markstrom would be a good enough starter and, so far, he has been. But if the team struggles to score, then even more pressure will fall on the goalies over the long haul. The Panthers are 28th in goals per game and power play percentage and are one of the slowest teams in the league, ranking 32nd in 22-plus m.p.h. speed bursts, per NHL Edge.
Los Angeles Kings
It's early, but... they may come to regret this portion of the schedule. Granted, the competition has not been easy (Colorado, San Jose, Florida and Los Angeles), and they haven't been completely healthy (Kevin Fiala hasn't played and Mats Zuccarello has missed a couple games), but the Kings have not been able to put up points and have been dominated at five-on-five despite a heavy rest schedule. The Kings have had two or three days off between each game so far, while their opposition hasn't been as lucky in that regard: Florida was at the end of their western road trip when they played L.A., and Vegas had played five games in nine days. Los Angeles is one of three teams without a win yet, and its top line has the worst plus-minuses on the team.
Minnesota Wild
It's early, but... their penalty kill has been elite so far, and a big improvement over last season. Minnesota trails only the Islanders in average time spent on the penalty kill per game, yet have killed off a league-leading 95.5 per cent of them (21 of 22). When they were one of the least penalized teams last season, the Wild had a 79.8 per cent PK.
It's early, but... the goalie situation got real interesting, real fast. After Sam Montembeault put together a strong camp, an injury quickly sidelined him and led to the call-up of Jacob Fowler. Jakub Dobes has allowed 11 goals in his past two games, so now Fowler, the 21-year-old presumed goalie of the future, is carving out an opportunity. He shut out the Red Wings on Saturday and now will start his third game in a row Tuesday night against Buffalo. Could this be the start of his takeover?
New Jersey Devils
It's early, but... this team needs to put together better starts. The Devils are the only team that hasn't yet scored the first goal of a game, and only once in five games have they held a lead after the first period. Just like last season, shooting percentage is a concern, as the Devils sit last in the league in finishing ability. They need more finishers, which is where Anthony Mantha (zero goals in five games) was to come in.
Nashville Predators
It's early, but... Juuse Saros is holding up his end of the bargain to keep this team afloat. Saros led the league in goals saved above expected back in 2022-23, but in each of the three years since, he finished near the bottom of that stat and has been a below-league-average netminder. That the Predators are 20th in goals per game but hold an even goal differential is a testament to Saros' positive impact.
New York Islanders
It's early, but... their goal differential is promising. At 2-3-0, the Islanders have been alternating between wins and losses since the puck dropped on their season but are one of nine Eastern teams with a positive goal differential. A big reason for that, predictably, is Ilya Sorokin, who has a .937 save percentage. The Isles get outshot and outchanced at five-on-five, but have so far outscored the opposition 9-6 in that scenario. Their offence could really use Mathew Barzal back in the lineup, but that doesn't appear imminent yet.
New York Rangers
It's early, but... there are signs Alexis Lafreniere could finally have his breakout season. He leads the team with five goals and eight points through seven games, and he was the NHL's third star of the week. He has to put this together for a longer period of time, of course, but it's worth remembering that he finished last season strong as well, with 24 points in his last 23 games.
It's early, but... the promise of building on last season is persisting through early bad luck. A 5-1-0 start has Ottawa atop the Atlantic despite missing Jake Sanderson, Artem Zub and now William Eklund, who was off to a heck of a start. Linus Ullmark was going to be the X-factor to this team's success, and he's pulling them through this time — first in wins and high-danger saves, second in save percentage and with a 1.27 GAA.
Philadelphia Flyers
It's early, but....is Rick Tocchet on the hot seat? It's been rough for the Flyers out of the gate. Their 7-0 loss at home to the Penguins to start the season was a bad omen, and the Flyers have managed just eight goals in six games since. Among the worst teams by expected goals and against, and last overall with a minus-20 goal differential, Philadelphia is one of three teams that still haven't won a game (Calgary and Los Angeles the others). This was supposed to be a playoff team, so you have to wonder how long it can go on like this before a change could be made... especially when someone like Bruce Cassidy is unemployed.
Pittsburgh Penguins
It's early, but... Sidney Crosby only has two points! The Penguins' start has been mostly positive — they have outscored and outshot the competition at five-on-five, the power play is operating at 20 per cent, the penalty kill is one of the top units in the game and young goalie Sergei Murashov has put together two good starts. But, again, Crosby has just two points (no goals) and is a team-worst minus-4 so far.
Seattle Kraken
It's early, but... so far, so good? A 4-2-0 record has Seattle with the sixth-best points percentage in the West, tied with good-story Utah and ahead of the Avalanche. Vince Dunn is a point-per-game player, making for an interesting conversation ahead of his next contract, and both goalies have been running hot. Still, we wonder: how sustainable is this? The Kraken are 30th in Corsi percentage and 27th in expected goals percentage at five-on-five. They lead the league in PDO (save percentage plus shooting percentage), which indicates some level of regression is ahead.
San Jose Sharks
It's early, but... it's been concerning to see the offence struggle as it has. Sure, Macklin Celebrini missed a couple of games, but if the Sharks are going to take a step, he can't win the team scoring race by 50-plus points again. San Jose is last overall in expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, and their team defence is still too leaky for Yaroslav Askarov, who has an .860 save percentage but is near level in goals saved above expected. A 3-2-0 start is promising, but their negative goal differential and problematic underlying numbers need to start turning around.
St. Louis Blues
It's early, but... the five-on-five offence has been slow to come. Averaging two goals per 60 minutes of play in that scenario, the Blues rank 22nd while allowing an average of three goals against per 60 at five-on-five. There was a little breakthrough in Saturday's 5-3 win over Columbus when Jimmy Snuggerud scored twice, but outside of that, the top line has been rather quiet. Robert Thomas has a single assist in five games.
Tampa Bay Lightning
It's early, but... Victor Hedman is seventh in average ice time per game among Lightning defencemen. Yes, you read that right. Seventh among blue liners on his own team. After playing 17:05 in the opener, Hedman has been under 14 minutes in three of the past four games. When he's been on the ice at five-on-five, the Lightning have outshot the competition 40-22 and outscored them 4-2, all good considering Hedman has the lowest offensive zone start percentage on the team.
It's early, but... Easton Cowan is looking like a significant x-Factor on this team. Able to play up and down the lineup, Cowan has been used in a few different places already. Third on the team in scoring through six games, no Leaf has a better on-ice expected goals percentage than Cowan. Whether it's a first, second, or third-line winger or, maybe down the line this season, a middle-of-the-lineup centre, Cowan's start has him looking like an important and versatile player in this lineup.
Utah Mammoth
It's early, but... their power play is helping them level up in a big way. The Mammoth have the league's best power play with a 40 per cent success rate, while Nick Schmaltz leads the league in power-play goals with Dylan Guenther tied for second behind him. Last year Utah had a middling man advantage. A lot is going well for the Mammoth, who are at or near the top of the league in every key underlying five-on-five metric: shots percentage, expected goals percentage, and Corsi percentage. And through six games, they are one point off the Central Division lead.
It's early, but... it was nice to see the fight there on home ice at least. Sure, the Canucks allow an average of five goals a game right now, but they're scoring 3.43 per game and have a top-10 offence right now (the two games versus Edmonton doing the heavy lifting here). Elias Pettersson is putting himself on the trade map again, and Paul Cotter has been one of the better surprises of the early season. There have been some ugly losses on the road recently, and there will be many more, but with expectations so low it was at least nice to see them make it interesting at home.
Vegas Golden Knights
It's early, but... what's up with this attendance thing? For the first time in franchise history, the Golden Knights did not have an announced sellout and, curiously, it happened with the Maple Leafs in town. It happened again Saturday night against Los Angeles. Vegas is 5-1-0 to top the Pacific, Jack Eichel is averaging two points a game, and they're looking as good as ever. So what gives? It's an unexpected story to watch as the season goes.
It's early, but... this is still looking like a one-line team. Gabe Vilardi is on the second line now to support rookie Viggo Bjorck and, hopefully, bring about a more productive unit, but so far neither Vilardi, Bjorck, Isak Rosen or Nino Niederreiter (after two games) have found the back of the net yet. At five-on-five, the run of play has been running against Winnipeg and Stuart Skinner is patching up some of these holes for now, but how long can that be sustained?
Washington Capitals
It's early, but... Pierre-Luc Dubois looks like a problem for the opponents. Limited to 29 games last season (and out currently with an illness), Dubois has found instant chemistry on a line with Tom Wilson and newcomer Alex Tuch — no five-on-five goals have been scored against the trio so far. Wilson leads the team in points, Tuch in goals, and they're all six-foot-four and over 220 pounds. Can Dubois actually put together a career year in this climate?
