Jets' Core 4 Dilemma: Cheveldayoff faces huge decisions

WINNIPEG -- No, this is not fantasy hockey.

But the reality for Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff is that he needs to get some clarification on the future plans for the Core 4, all of whom could become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2024.

The uncertainty surrounding the likes of goalie Connor Hellebuyck and forwards Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler was a big part of the reason there has been a Last Dance feel (without the championship banners) around this group since training camp last fall.

After a first-round exit in five games against the Vegas Golden Knights, sorting out the futures of these four players (plus several more) lands at or near the top of the priority list for Cheveldayoff and the hockey operations staff.

How does one differentiate between the importance of finding out what an all-world goalie or the 1A and 1B centremen (Scheifele, Dubois) are going to do?

It’s not as relevant as one might think when it comes to prioritizing: they’re equally important.

It’s virtually impossible to have success without high-end goaltending and it’s also incredibly difficult to win without strength down the middle.

So don’t bother getting caught up in which situation will be dealt with first.

This is not all doom and gloom and should none of those players express an interest in sticking around, it doesn’t necessarily trigger a full-scale rebuild -- that seems like the most unlikely outcome coming out of this summer.

Once the emotions of the early exit subside, the important conversations with the agents will take place.

While Cheveldayoff is known for his patience, there won’t be much time for a lengthy staring contest or to grind over the dollars, should one of those guys express interest in an extension.

That’s not to say leave a blank cheque on the table either, but time will be of the essence and there will be money to spend, provided the Jets remain a team that spends to -- or close to -- the salary-cap ceiling.

There is ample opportunity to get this sorted out, but the 2023 NHL Draft is a mere eight weeks away and securing another first-rounder or high second-rounder could be part of a potential package returning if one or all of those four players will be moving on this off-season.

That’s not to say that only futures will be part of any deals, but the Jets are missing second- and fourth-round picks in 2023, so replenishing the draft capital is another thing Cheveldayoff will be looking to do.

It’s hard to determine how many of these players are going to be wearing a Jets jersey this fall or how many may have actually played their last game in that uniform.

What seems apparent is that not all will return.

With that in mind, let’s look into the crystal ball and dissect some of the options for the Jets and some of these players.

Position: Workhorse goalie

Age: 30 (on May 19)

AAV for 2023-24: $6.167 million ($7.5 million actual salary)

The skinny: The fifth round pick in the 2012 NHL Draft is preparing for his ninth NHL season and his intentions on one front are clear -- he wants to be able to compete for a Stanley Cup.

He’s a workhorse who has made north of 60 starts four times in his career (including a league-high 69 starts this season, including the playoffs).

What is not known is how important it is for him to become one of -- if not THE -- highest-paid goalies in the NHL. Hellebuyck is currently sixth on that list, behind Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens ($10.5 million), Sergei Bobrovsky of the Florida Panthers ($10 million), Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning ($9.5 million), John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks ($6.4 million) and Matt Murray of the Toronto Maple Leafs ($6.25 million).

Hellebuyck will be getting a raise from both his AAV and actual salary in his next deal. It’s going to be a significant investment, no matter how long Hellebuyck wants the deal to be (and it’s likely to be at least five years and maybe closer to seven).

Are the Jets ready to make Hellebuyck the face of the franchise and the highest-paid player to wear the jersey? It’s a possibility.

Could the Jets keep Hellebuyck as a rental? They’ve done it before, but it seems like the most unlikely outcome.

There will be plenty of contending teams interested in a) bringing in Hellebuyck for one shot at a Stanley Cup and b) to also try and lock him up on a long-term deal to extend their current window.

What does Hellebuyck want? It shouldn’t take too long to find out. Trying to replace him would be an incredibly difficult task as he’s been the backbone of the Jets for a long time.

If that ends up being the case, the Jets could be trying to attract someone like Joonas Korpisalo or Freddie Andersen in free agency or might try to get a goalie under contract back in a prospective deal, like Ville Husso, Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman.

As for the Jets, given what Cheveldayoff said about legacy contracts last off-season, it’s hard to imagine (but not impossible) that the organization is ready to offer Hellebuyck a contract north of $9.5 million. If that’s the case, finding the best deal has to be the priority for Cheveldayoff this off-season because the Jets won’t have an internal candidate that is knocking on the door of becoming an NHL starter for at least a few seasons.

Position: Centre

Age: 31

AAV for 2023-24: $6.125 million ($6 million actual salary)

The skinny: The original draft pick of the Jets 2.0 era, the seventh-overall selection in the 2011 NHL Draft has been a consistent point producer. Even after not hitting the point-per-game threshold for the first time in seven season, he set a career-best with 42 goals and still managed to hit 68 points in 81 games.

He’s an incredible offensive talent and at a time when numerous teams are looking for goal scorers, Scheifele is going to attract attention if he hits the trade market. Scheifele’s reference to his favourite childhood player, Steve Yzerman, playing for one franchise for his entire career was neither a commitment to sticking around, nor was it a beaming of the bat signal for Yzerrman to make a deal for him to the Detroit Red Wings.

It should be noted that the marriage could make some sense for both parties, as Scheifele’s close friend and longtime roommate Andrew Copp is there and Scheifele was a Red Wings fan growing up.

The biggest thing with Scheifele is going to be how big a raise he wants on a long-term deal. Scheifele has given a great deal to the organization and his offence would be difficult to replace.

But given some of the tough endings to numerous seasons -- ranging from the ankle injury after the hit from Matthew Tkachuk in 2020, the four-game suspension for his hit on Jake Evans in 2021, the season-ending injury in the non-playoff season in 2022 and the suspected shoulder/collarbone injury he sustained early in Game 4 against the Golden Knights this season -- you wouldn’t blame Scheifele if he felt a change of scenery might serve him well moving forward.

Scheifele has become a bit of a lightning rod for his defensive play, highlighted by his nearly 12-minute benching with linemates Kyle Connor and Nino Niederreiter during a game against the Carolina Hurricanes in March. It’s probably reached the stage where both sides could benefit from moving on from one another.

The Jets are all Scheifele has known and this isn’t necessarily about finding greener pastures, but about seeing where he fits in elsewhere. An extension is possible, but it seems unlikely at this stage of the proceedings.

If that’s the case, a move during the week of the NHL Draft could be a legitimate possibility. His AAV makes him appealing to a contender, but value in a trade would be raised if Scheifele is willing to sign an extension with the team acquiring his services.

Position: Centre

Age: 25 (on June 24)

AAV for 2023-24: Undetermined as a restricted free agent with arbitration rights

The skinny: Dubois is in a different situation than the other three players on this list, which might actually move him to the front of the line. There is no doubt the Jets will make a lucrative offer to try and convince Dubois to stick around, but that might not be enough.

Dubois may not have decided what he wants to do, but there are some signs pointing to him wanting to head Eeast. Whether that’s with his hometown Montreal Canadiens or another team remains to be seen. An extension would be the Jets' preferred path here, but if that’s not possible, they must act relatively quickly -- otherwise the threat of an offer sheet could become a real possibility.

This is a topic that requires further exploration but one would suspect it’s an option several GMs around the league could consider. Would Canadiens GM Kent Hughes make a substantial offer to the Jets for a player who could simply sign as a UFA in the summer of 2024?

It’s a fair point, but what if Dubois is traded elsewhere this summer and finds out he likes being a part of that organization? The Boston Bruins are coming off a first-round exit and might be looking to replace both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, depending on how things transpire over the coming weeks and months.

The New York Rangers also got bounced in the first round and failed to meet expectations. One of the skilled players who struggled mightily in the first round is winger Artemi Panarin, someone Dubois has chemistry with from their time together with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Rangers GM Chris Drury has shown he’s willing to take big swings and he’s got some centre depth that could help the Jets fill the void, should both Dubois and Scheifele be departing this summer.

Other teams are going to be interested in a player with the physical force and skill of Dubois, who has yet to reach his full potential. If Cheveldayoff can’t sign Dubois, extracting a significant return becomes a must, especially when you consider he moved Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic to acquire him.

Dubois put up good numbers in two of his three seasons with the Jets (including a career-high 64 points this season and a career-best 28 goals last season), but the team captured only one playoff series since his arrival.

Using him as a rental and letting him walk to unrestricted free agency with the risk of him leaving for nothing is not an option that should be considered.

Position: Right wing

Age: 37 (on August 31)

AAV for 2023-24: $8.25 million

The skinny: Wheeler’s name is sprinkled throughout the franchise record book and he’s committed the prime of his career to this organization. His effort has never been questioned, but the time has likely come for him to take on a reduced role and that won’t be an easy thing to navigate.

Wheeler is a proud guy who holds himself to a high standard and it’s possible he won’t want to play anywhere and become a third-liner. But only he knows that for sure.

Wheeler eclipsed 50 points this season (55 in 72 games) at the age of 36, which is an impressive feat in itself, and he was one of the most consistent forwards in the playoffs.

Can he sustain that level next season? There will be a day when Wheeler’s No. 26 is lifted to the rafters, but most signs point to him skating off into the sunset, whether that’s in a trade (with the Jets retaining up to half of his salary) or some other means.

The Jets have only bought out one player in franchise history (defenceman Mark Stuart) and he wasn’t anywhere close to the highest-paid player at the time.

Since the two sides considered a mutual split last summer, it stands to reason it would be an option again this summer -- the idea being that it would be easier to move Wheeler’s salary with only one year on it than two.

Wheeler has played through a lot of pain over his 1,138 regular-season and 65 playoff games in 15 seasons, so there’s also a chance he either won’t be physically able to go through another season or is simply ready to start the next phase of his life.