Jets off-season checklist: What's the plan if Ehlers bolts?

WINNIPEG — Was this the last we’ve seen of Nikolaj Ehlers in a Winnipeg Jets uniform?

The orginization certainly hopes not.

“We will put our best foot forward to try to make our case (for him) to be one of those guys who can be a unique Jet-for-life type of player and we’ll see where it goes from there,” Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff said of the pending UFA during at his season-end availability last week. 

But the Jets don’t have a lot working in their favour right now. 

The closer a pending UFA gets to free agency, the more difficult it is to sway them off the open market. 

Cheveldayoff, a GM of the year nominee isn’t about to throw a blank cheque at the talented Danish speedster. Right or wrong, as electrifying of a talent Ehlers is — coming off a career-high 0.91-point-per-game season — he’s always been second fiddle to Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. In fact, eight players logged more five-on-five minutes per game than Ehlers did in the playoffs (12:01). 

It’s safe to say Cheveldayoff’s pitch won’t include a dollar figure that’s market value. AFP Analytics projects Ehlers’ next deal to be a six-year contract with an $8.1-million AAV. 

That number could get even higher, given the bidding war that’ll be had for his services. 

Ehlers — who has excellent statistics on a per-minute basis — has all the characteristics of a player that teams overpay for, under the assumption that he could thrive in a bigger role. 

Are the Jets really going to outbid these suitors? Certainly not, especially if that number surpasses Connor Hellebuyck and Scheifele’s $8.5-million AAV.

Better yet, even if they were comfortable disrupting the apple cart and paying his market value — is Ehlers really going to re-sign with a team where he won’t play nearly as much as he would elsewhere? 

All signs point to Ehlers being good as gone. And while priority No. 1 may be re-signing him, realistically, Cheveldayoff’s agenda will soon shift to how he can replace a four-time, 60-plus-point scorer in his top-six.

Here are the items atop Cheveldayoff’s summer to-do list

An Ehlers contingency plan

Whether you’re Winnipeg or a free-agent hotbed like Vegas or Florida, replacing someone like Ehlers, overnight, is tricky. 

The difference for Winnipeg, of course, is that no-trade clauses eliminate several plausible options and they’re not landing any hot-shot free agents. 

Ideally, similar to when they let Brenden Dillon walk, the Jets find a way to fill that hole internally. The best-case scenario is that someone like Cole Perfetti takes a step forward, or a prospect – like Nikita Chibrikov or Brad Lambert – becomes a viable top-six forward. 

But for a team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations? You can’t solely bank on that. 

Don’t be surprised if Cheveldayoff goes out and trades a mid-round pick – or either of his upcoming firsts, if it’s a real difference-maker – for a middle-six forward that can provide some scoring.

Extending Kyle Connor 

His extension may not seem time pressing – with one year remaining on his contract – but re-signing Connor is Cheveldayoff’s most important summer objective. 

Connor is one of the best left wingers in the world. And the Jets are going to have to pay him accordingly. 

Since breaking into the league during the 2016-17 season, only Alex Ovehckin has scored more goals than Connor (284) and nobody at his position has buried more game-winning goals than him (60). 

Over the last three years, Connor ranks third in both five-on-five playoff points per 60 minutes (2.70) and five-on-five playoff goals per 60 minutes (1.43).

With the cap rising, there’s no doubt Connor is going to be getting a double-digit payday. Here's a look at how he compares to others that landed extensions.

Connor’s new deal would kick in at the start of the 2026-27 season, when the salary cap is projected to sit at $104 million. Based off percentage of cap from the players above, Connor is in line for an AAV in the ballpark of $11 million. 

Re-signing Dylan Samberg and Gabriel Vilardi 

Samberg, 26, is coming off a career year where he solidified himself as a high-end, top-four defenceman. 

The pending RFA is one year away from free agency and there’s no doubt the Jets are going to try to retain him for the long-term. AFP Analytics predicts a five-year, $5.2-million contract for Samberg – although one ought to believe the Jets will try to lock him down to a seven- or eight-year deal. With the cap rising, we could see some players entertain shorter long-term deals – four or five years – in the hopes of landing one more big contract down the road. Whether or not Samberg is eyeing a mid-range or long-term deal remains to be seen but there’s no doubt the Jets will be aggressive in retaining him for as long as possible. The Jets defence, and the team as a whole, is a whole other animal without Samberg in the fold. 

Vilardi’s situation is quite a bit different. 

The 25-year-old RFA is two years away from being a UFA and signing him long-term, should he be interested, may not even be feasible. Think about it: Connor is about to be paid handsomely, Josh Morrissey is eligible for an extension in a year from now, plus Scheifele and Hellebuyck are linked long-term — can they really afford to give Vilardi the bag, too? 

A bridge seems the most plausible, for both parties.