Jets quarter-mark report: Recent skid spoils hot start

With the Winnipeg Jets having played 21 games this year, it’s time for a quarter-mark report. Quite frankly, had this examination occurred after game No. 19 — a 5-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets — the tenor would likely be much different. As it stands, though, the past handful of days have been rough enough in Jetsland to shift the vibes around the team and introduce the idea that there’s some cause for concern.

On Friday, the team announced Connor Hellebuyck — also known as the reigning league MVP — would miss four to six weeks thanks to arthroscopic knee surgery. Since then, Eric Comrie has started two home games and lost them both. In fairness to Comrie, the Jets failed to score a goal in the second of those contests, a 3-0 loss to a Minnesota Wild team that has now jumped Winnipeg in the Central Division standings.

That pair of defeats emphasizes the point that the first quarter of Winnipeg’s season is really a tale of two halves. Through 12 games, the Jets posted a 9-3-0 record. Since then, however, the club has scuffled through a 3-6-0 stretch that has made November a much less fun month than October.

Throw in Hellebuyck’s injury and a Central Division that’s living up to its pre-season billing as the NHL’s Group of Death and you understand why there could be low-to-mid-level handwringing in Manitoba. 

Somewhat perplexingly, the Jets managed better out of the gates while three key players — captain Adam Lowry, second-liner Cole Perfetti and second-pair defenceman Dylan Samberg — were out of the lineup. While the team’s fortunes have actually dipped with those three guys debuting in November, you must think Winnipeg is better positioned to handle Hellebuyck’s absence with that trio of players in the lineup.

Still, with their star goalie on the shelf, it figures to be a grind for Winnipeg between here and the point in January when it’s time to do the mid-season report.

Most encouraging development: The stars are delivering

Mark Scheifele’s 1.33 points per game is a bigger number than all but six NHLers; Kyle Connor is tied for 16th in that category with 1.19, and the only defenceman with more points than Josh Morrissey’s 22 is Cale Makar with 29. Even Hellebuyck, before he had surgery, has the sixth-highest goals save above expected/60 minutes in the league. Say what you will about Winnipeg, its big boys lead the way. 

It should also be pointed out that the Jets entered camp with two huge pending UFAs in the form of Connor and Lowry. Connor re-upped for eight years on the eve of the regular season, while Lowry returned from hip surgery and put pen to paper on a five-year extension soon thereafter.

Most concerning development: Trouble under the hood?

The Jets’ underlying numbers are not flattering. A team that’s supposed to be defined by solid structure is 27th in Moneypuck’s expected goals for percentage metric. Last season, Winnipeg finished seventh in that category.

According to the site Power Rankings Guru, the Jets have also had the second-easiest strength of schedule so far. The power play, while still formidable at 23.9 per cent (ninth in the league), is not quite the lethal weapon it was last year, when the Jets finished first in the NHL at 28.9 per cent.

Now, all of this is happening against the backdrop of Helleybuck being unavailable for up to six weeks.

Top-six forwards: B

This is really a conversation about the top line versus everybody else in the forward group. Mark Scheifele (11), Kyle Connor (11) and Gabe Vilardi (eight) have combined to score 30 goals for Winnipeg this year; the rest of the forwards, combined, have 26.

The top trio would likely earn an A-plus on its own, but the second line — for a variety of reasons — has been in a bit of flux all year. After two years away from the NHL, Jonathan Toews has eight points and is minus-11 in 21 games. Cole Perfetti was hurt in the final pre-season game and sustained a lower-body injury. He returned on Nov. 9 and has one goal in seven games. Vlad Namestnikov had six goals through 12 games, but has not found the back of the net in nine.

The next quarter of the season really needs to be about establishing a second wave of scoring for Winnipeg.

Bottom-six forwards: C

The return of Adam Lowry on Nov. 4 was a boon for the bottom/middle-six forward crew. Jets coach Scott Arniel now has options in terms of running Lowry out as a 2C with Toews underneath him, or vice-versa. 

A couple of winger situations are pretty grim right now, with Gustav Nyquist — signed in the summer to provide secondary offence — still without a goal through 16 contests. Meanwhile, Brad Lambert — the 30th pick in the 2022 draft — has been told by the club that his representation can explore trade options with other teams. 

The good news? Morgan Barron has emerged as a large, steady force in the middle of the fourth line.

Defence: B

Josh Morrissey is certainly the headliner here, as he is having the kind of showing that might make him a Norris finalist when all is said and done. Getting Dylan Samberg back from his broken wrist on Nov. 13 should help settle the top four, though suddenly Samberg’s playing partner, Neal Pionk, is listed as day-to-day. 

Winnipeg really relies on the duos of Morrissey-Dylan DeMelo, and Samberg-Pionk to carry the mail, so the club needs good health there and for everybody to find their rhythm now that Samberg is back.

Logan Stanley, a frequent scratch last year, has dressed for every game, is averaging a career-high 17:07 per night and — after entering the season with five goals in 201 career games —already has three tallies this year.

Goaltending: A-minus

When Hellebuyck finished his most recent start, the Jets still ranked fifth in the NHL with a team save percentage of .905. He may not have been posting a Hart Trophy-type season, but the big man was still pulling his weight. Behind him, Eric Comrie had a sturdy .908 save percentage in five games. 

The dynamic is totally different now, with Comrie being counted on to start. 

Joining Comrie in the current battery is 22-year-old Thomas Milic, who figures to get the first NHL action of his career any minute now. A fifth-round pick in 2023, Milic had strong numbers in last spring’s AHL playoffs with the Manitoba Moose and was off to a good start this year with a .921 mark in nine AHL games. That said, we’re talking about a goalie who played 18 ECHL games last year. 

One way or another, the Jets will have to make do without their security blanket for a while. 

Quarter-mark Awards

MVP: Mark Scheifele
Most Improved Player: Morgan Barron
Best Defensive Player: Josh Morrissey