Friday’s stunning news of Nikita Kucherov informing the Tampa Bay Lightning of his desire to be dealt elsewhere sent shockwaves through the NHL.
The reverberations are still being felt Monday, with so much still to unpack. As information and insights continue to bring clarity to this story as it unfolds, we’re looking at some of the most pressing questions to break it all down.
What’s behind Kucherov’s request?
At this point, the biggest questions are still centred around why the franchise’s all-time leading scorer, who in addition to his many individual accolades over the course of his career, has twice won the Stanley Cup with the Lightning, wishes to leave Tampa.
Kucherov shed some light on that Monday.
“It was never about the money for me,” Kucherov, 33, told reporters. “It was more about poor communication and respect. Over the last four months, we have had two conversations. (Lightning GM Julien BriseBois), in the end, made it clear that I’m free to walk on July 1.”
Will this request affect Kucherov’s on-ice presence?
So far, there’s been no indication Kucherov intends to hold out.
During an in-depth discussion on Monday’s edition of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman said he believes much can be derived from Kucherov’s performance against the Nashville Predators Saturday night — a game that started with a shared look between Kucherov and former teammate Steven Stamkos, and ended with Kucherov registering a three-point night.
“He comes out, he gets three assists. So, if you’re looking at that from the outside, you’re saying that Kucherov will keep his word, he will play for the Lightning for as long as he has to — if it’s the rest of the season — and he will compete at his high level. If he doesn’t get traded this year, it won’t affect him,” Friedman said. “That’s one thing we learned on Saturday: He’s going to be a pro, and he is going to play. He’s not going to sit out, he’s not going to have a work-to-rule on the ice, letting passes go by him, throwing bad plays, being a drill-killer in practice. He is here to play.”
Is age a factor?
As for negotiations, Friedman stated that he does not believe this is a case of Lightning GM Julien BriseBois digging in his heels with an older player. (Kucherov will turn 34 just a few weeks before his eight-year contract officially expires.) He noted that both BriseBois and Lightning head coach Jon Cooper adore Kucherov, and recognize his importance to the organization.
“I do not think this is about the aging curve. In Tampa, the top players have always accepted less — always. The taxes situation is better there, but also all those guys — Kucherov, Vasilevskiy, Hedman, Point, all of them — could’ve made more money on the open market than they did signing in Tampa. But that’s what they do. That’s their way.”
What can we learn from past Lightning negotiations?
As Kucherov himself shared Monday, the forward has been unhappy with the lack of progress being made.
“That is the No. 1 thing that I heard all weekend, was, it’s not so much the offer, it’s the pace of the negotiation,” said Friedman. “He’s used to being signed early, and he’s used to seeing a lot of big Tampa stars getting signed early.”
Of course, that was not the case the last time the Lightning entered talks with a big Tampa star. When then-captain Steven Stamkos entered his contract year in 2023, discussions went down to the wire before Stamkos ultimately walked in free agency.
What’s the going rate for Kucherov, anyway?
While Kucherov said it’s not about the money, he’s clearly going to get paid.
There have been no reports around potential trade packages teams are building, but there are rumblings about what it might take to sign Kucherov should he ultimately end up a free agent next July.
When Kucherov signed his eight-year, $76-million contract with the Lightning back in July 2018 (a full year before sniffing free agency, we might note), his $9.5-million cap hit accounted for 11.66 per cent of the salary cap. Look ahead to next year’s projected $113.5-million salary cap for 2027-28, that same percentage would be equal to a cap hit of just over $13 million. Considering the current contract landscape, landing Kucherov for anything less than $14 million would feel like a coup.
A more logical landing place would likely be in the neighbourhood of Kirill Kaprizov’s $17-million AAV, which officially came into effect July 1 — the same day Kucherov was officially eligible to sign an extension.
Insider Kevin Weekes reported over the weekend he believes Tampa brass’s offer was initially $13 million, and increased to $15 million as players and executives around the league raised the bar.
David Pagnotta reported a $15-million AAV on a four-year term was the Lightning’s offer.
“There’s a lot of organizations right now who are sitting there saying, ‘If this guy’s available, are we willing to pay $120 (million)?’ Maybe that doesn’t end up being the number, but you know that that could be on the table,” said Friedman.
How have Kucherov’s teammates reacted?
Surely, we’ll hear more from Lightning players as this story unfolds, but it’s clear at this early point in the process that Kucherov’s situation is vastly different from other trade requests we’ve seen of late. Unlike in the cases of Brady Tkachuk, Connor Hellebuyck, and Dylan Larkin, Kucherov is a pending UFA. If Brandon Hagel’s comment, via Lightning reporter Eduardo A. Encina, is any indication, it seems evident he’s got the respect and support of his teammates:
Might Kucherov change his mind?
The Lightning certainly hope so. These are early days, and a lot can change.
Friedman reported that Kucherov has not submitted a list of preferred destinations or places he’d be willing to sign an extension. As Friedman explained, it all seems to boil down to this:
“Tampa still has him. They’re gonna try to keep him. And the biggest question is, ‘Is there any chance this guy changes his mind?’ Because right now, he’s serious,” he said. “People asked, ‘Is this a negotiation ploy?’ I don’t believe it is. I just don’t think this guy is wired that way. He knows he’s gonna get the money from everywhere.”
