NHL scoring leaders provide blueprint for Flames' rebuild

CALGARY — As the Calgary Flames contemplate their path forward, they needn’t look any further than the NHL’s scoring leaders for guidance.

There’s a glaring trend amongst the league’s top point-getters that should be driving the Calgary Flames to alter their hybuild — hybrid rebuild — approach and embrace the opportunity their horrific start presents.

Three of the top four scorers in the NHL are first-overall picks — Nathan MacKinnon, Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini.

Leo Carlsson, the league’s second-leading scorer, was selected second overall. 

Three of those four are 20 years-old or younger (Carlsson, Bedard and Celebrini.)

For more proof on the impact a pick like that can have, consider the fact nine of the league’s top-15 scorers this season were picked first or second overall.

Of the other six players, only one was selected outside the top 10, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov, a unicorn drafted 135^th overall in 2015.

None of this is a coincidence. 

It’s a reminder of just how good scouting has become in today’s world of endless video and analytics.

It’s not just a statistical quirk, it’s a flashing neon sign for a team like the Flames that has long resisted the notion that a top-two pick might be the only way out of their scoring woes. 

With the Flames sitting last in the standings, second-last in offence, and scoreless in their last two games, the lesson for the team is simple — a first- or second-overall pick can pay off huge, and it can pay off quickly.

Elite talent not only sells jerseys, tickets and hope, it also drives success.

With a star like Gavin McKenna being dangled as the reward for this year’s draft-lottery winner, the Flames need to lean into their losing season by starting to trade off veterans, promote more AHLers and get younger.   

No more chasing the mushy middle, as has been the team’s trademark the last three decades. This needs to be the year they finally break into the top two or three of the draft, something the organization has never done. 

A look at the NHL’s current leading scorers:      

Because the Flames have a long history of being averse to bottoming out, which has long been the most obvious path to rebuilding championship teams, the franchise’s highest pick was fourth overall in 2014 when they selected Sam Bennett.

Since then they’ve hovered in the mid-to-late first round. The result, a team that has missed the playoffs three years in a row, four of the last five and has advanced past the first round once in the last decade.

Last year they were fourth-last in scoring, with their team leader, Nazem Kadri, finishing 55th overall in scoring. Although a talented seventh pick overall himself, Kadri is 35, and currently sits 112^th with 11 points in 17 games.

Help is needed.

In Calgary, it’s not a coaching or a systems issue, it’s a talent issue.

You can’t win in today’s NHL without elite skill, which almost exclusively comes at the top of the draft — a perch the Flames are within reach of for the first time in their history. 

With a new arena set to open in 2027, the timing of it all could be perfect, as stars like Celebrini, 19, and 20-year-olds Bedard and Carlsson became instant franchise cornerstones who are already paying off.

Last week, the Flames saw Bedard post four points in a 4-0 win at the Saddledome.

Celebrini and his Sharks play here Thursday.

Both visits provide first-hand glimpses of the disparity between what the Flames have and what they need.

By all accounts, McKenna has the capability to join Celebrini and Bedard as the new faces of the league.

The Flames’ reluctance to embrace a full rebuild stems from the fact there are no guarantees a tear down of any sort can be rebuilt in a timely fashion. (See Buffalo)

But given the fact their playoff hopes are all but mathematically dashed, it’s a no-brainer to play out the hand they’ve dealt themselves, ensuring they have as many lottery balls as possible to land McKenna.   

A one-year faceplant could pay off for more than a decade.

The evidence is overwhelming, you don’t win without stars, and stars come from the top of the draft. 

While Calgary has some exciting young pieces in place, the one waiting to be called first overall this summer could be transformational.

Anything less than embracing the possibility of a bottom-three finish is reckless and irrational.

Everything Craig Conroy and the front office does the rest of the season should be with that in mind.

If you’re not drafting at the top, you’re not scoring at the top. 

And in today’s NHL, that’s the difference between watching the playoffs and playing in them.