OTTAWA — It’ll be a nervy final nine games for the Ottawa Senators before the regular season concludes. Their playoff fate will be on the line.
Here’s nine storylines to watch out for in the final nine games of the Senators’ season.
Ullmark's durability
Every game now is the Senators’ biggest game of the season, and in the new era of tandem goaltenders, you don’t expect even the best of starters to play the final nine games of a heated playoff race.
Nevertheless, when Linus Ullmark missed a pivotal game against Tampa Bay because of fatigue, it brought up more questions.
"I want to play Linus every night. He needed a rest, and he wasn't available to start tonight," said Senators head coach Travis Green.
It’s been a trying season for Ullmark, who struggled with anxiety episodes and mental health challenges mid-season that he courageously acknowledged. Ullmark missed a month for a personal leave of absence to tend to it. Since his return, he’s been closer to his Vezina-calibre self, with two of his best performances of the season last week against Detroit and Pittsburgh. Mental health is no joke, and nobody should take shots at Ullmark for his absence.
Ullmark has played only 42 times this season and his teammates are grinding through aches and pain mixed with a ton of exhaustion to get back into the playoff race. The game against Tampa Bay wasn’t on the second night of a back-to-back and the Senators had two days off before their next game. The Senators needed him, and he wasn’t available due to weariness. If Connor Hellebuyck or Igor Shesterkin or Andrei Vasilevskiy missed a key regular-season in a playoff race due to rest, it would be a story. It is in Ottawa too, and rightfully so.
In the past, Ullmark has mentioned how much he wanted the opportunity to be a bona fide starter. He’s paid a lot of money to play three games in six nights, à la the Tampa Bay game on Saturday.
If Ullmark had played and to his recent form, there is a decent chance the Senators could have snuck out at least a point against Tampa Bay.
Regardless, if Ullmark can’t play the vast majority of the remaining games of the season due to fatigue, then the Senators are in trouble. And the questions about whether the Senators can rely on the Swede will grow louder.
Sanderson’s health
Jake Sanderson reportedly separated his shoulder on March 7, when he was playing the best hockey of his career, with 48 points in 62 games and creeping into the Norris Trophy conversation. You don’t need to be an expert to know his presence was sorely missed by the Senators.
However, Sanderson has been skating and joined his team on its current Florida road swing, which likely means a return in the near term. Because the Senators backline is so depleted, especially with Thomas Chabot’s recent forearm surgery, and the Senators are two points out of a playoff spot, Sanderson’s return could determine the team’s fate.
Without Chabot or Sanderson in the last three games, the Senators have been outshot 100-78. In their previous 70 games with either Chabot or Sanderson in the lineup, the Senators outshot opponents 2,030-1,670 for a plus-360 shot differential — third in the league. The wear and tear is showing for the Senators, so if the guy who wears all the biggest matchups for the Senators returns, they could start to thrive, not just try to survive.
Cozens’ struggles
It was good to see Dylan Cozens score against Tampa Bay because the "Workhorse from Whitehorse" had been cold as a winter day in Yukon lately. Cozens has three points in his last 11 games, coinciding with Sanderson’s injury.
You have to wonder if Sanderson’s absence has made it harder for Cozens to maintain himself in the offensive end and produce on the power play, where he’s been so effective. Before the injury to Ottawa’s No. 1 D-man, Cozens had 18 points in 17 games. When Cozens is producing, the Senators’ offensive complexion becomes lethal.
Spence's trajectory
The dynamic, diminutive defenceman has been rolling in an augmented role since the Senators’ two best defencemen went down with injuries. Jordan Spence has six points in his last six games and, in an elevated role due to the injuries, has been Ottawa’s best defenceman.
In a matter of weeks, Spence went from sheltered third-pairing minutes to trying to play the most of any Senator routinely and effectively. We’ve never seen Spence get a long period of trust in a top-four role; now, without Chabot, he will for an extended period of time. If it continues, he could be in for a big payday as a restricted free agent this summer, and the Senators could have another gem on the blueline.
Yakemchuk's defensive work
Carter Yakemchuk rocketed onto the scene in his NHL debut with a howitzer wrist shot to help earn the Senators a win. However, he’s come back to earth like the space shuttle in his subsequent two games. Tampa Bay's third and fourth goals, which sealed the Sens’ loss, exposed Yakemchuk’s inexperience with two defensive mishaps. The 20-year-old’s offence is real, but the defensive warts are also self-evident. If the Senators get healthy, the decision will be whether to play Yakemchuk with the high-upside in big games or play it safe with a more experienced defenceman.
Can the PK stay effective?
Since Mike Yeo took charge of the penalty kill on Jan. 24, the Senators have the fourth-best penalty kill, humming at 83 per cent. The Senators have killed 24 of the last 27 power plays against. If you consistently win the special-teams battle, it translates onto the win column.
Which Tkachuk will they get?
The Senators captain is producing offence at the second-highest rate of his career. Nevertheless, Brady Tkachuk and his coach have admitted his game hasn’t always been where they’d like it to be this season. Tkachuk was hurt and limited by a wrist injury earlier this season.
“I didn't like my game last night,” he said last week, about his game in Washington. “So, yeah, I try not to let things sit and fester, I needed a bounce-back.”
Tkachuk was an animal the following night, beating the New York Islanders with a goal just 11 seconds left before the final buzzer.
Those types of performances where Tkachuk’s presence is felt have been too few and far between. The Senators need the best version of Tkachuk in the final nine games.
Can they stay healthy?
Every game the Senators are playing has a "must-win" importance to it. That takes a lot out of you, especially when your backend is decimated. With so little margin of error, and the Senators two points out of a playoff spot, they can ill afford any major injuries. The inner monologue of Senators fans until the end of the regular season: "Please, no injuries, my lord."
Can they score enough?
Before Sanderson’s injury, the Senators were ranked eighth in goals per game. Since then, with a period that also includes Chabot’s absence, the Senators are 18th in goals per game. Cozens has slowed down, and despite some great offence from the depth players — notably newcomer Warren Foegele, who has five goals in 12 games — the Senators are missing that finishing touch.
As good as they’ve been defensively this season, they’ll need to find more offence to get themselves into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
