The Pittsburgh Penguins' winning streak may have come to an end Saturday against the Dallas Stars, but it made quite the impact — pulling Pittsburgh up the standings into the fourth seed of the Metropolitan Division, with three games in hand on two of the teams slotted ahead of them.
This team could have a lot riding on this season. Obviously, they’re going to want to maximize the group around Sidney Crosby as long as they can. But their contract situation moving forward is going to be tricky to navigate with so many key players hitting unrestricted free agency — from Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to Evan Rodrigues, Jeff Carter, Zach Aston-Reese, and Bryan Rust, among others.
With so few players signed for 2022-23, there’s pressure on this year. So, did that 10-game winning streak and their overall play to this point indicate that it’s worth it to go all in?
A quick gut check is taking a glance at even strength expected goal differential over a winning streak: were the Penguins lucky, or were they maintaining a high level of play over that stretch of games? Sometimes, when a team goes on a run, their level of play diminishes along the way and adjustments aren’t made because of their record. That wasn’t the case for this team, as they were the better team by that metric in all but one game ahead of their loss in Dallas (where they also were not the better even strength team).
Those numbers aren’t just strong across their last 10 games, either. There’s a lot below the surface pointing to some season-wide success.
The Penguins aren’t the stingiest team at the blue line, but despite not denying entries against at the highest rate at even strength, they still get to work in their own end. Even though their opponents often can enter the zone, they don’t always generate offence in transition, as Pittsburgh ranks highly in how they limit slot chances against off the rush.
But what’s impressive is that they also don’t allow much off the cycle, either. Only the Hurricanes allow a lower rate of 5-on-5 chances from the slot than the Penguins’ 5.11 per 60, in those situations. And they don’t allow many opponents to just rip shots from the slot without some pressure. Nor do they let teams generate many rebound attempts from that area of the ice, either.
That’s why teams aren’t expected to score against the Penguins at a high rate; they concede just 2.34 expected goals against per 60, the fifth-best rate in the league. And that high level of play in their own end translates to the penalty kill, too — ranking third in xG rate against while short-handed.
That helps insulate their goaltenders enough, who have responded well to that workload — especially Tristan Jarry.
And on the flip side, there’s their play on the other end of the ice. The Penguins are able to take pucks away and transition the other way to get out of danger. Plus, they recover dump-ins against at a high rate, and often exit from there.
Sometimes, that sparks an odd-man rush for which Pittsburgh generates one of the highest rates of. They’re actually one of the best 5-on-5 teams on the rush, creating the fourth-best rate of slot chances for. What makes them especially dangerous is that opponents don’t just have to defend against one type of offensive generation. The Penguins are multi-dimensional and also push the pace of play off the cycle too.
All together, between all of their attacking approaches, they’re among the league-leaders in shot volume and quality. And that slot chance generation also stems from their ability to move the puck to the slot. It brings Pittsburgh to 3.05 expected goals for per 60, which ranks third in the league behind only Florida and Toronto. Their actual results are actually slightly behind expectations — shooting talent and opposing goaltenders are the equalizers above all else — but the fact that there’s this high level of pressure offensively bodes well for long-term success.
Already, the Penguins are getting offence from players like Crosby and Jake Guentzel, as expected. Rust and Carter are two key contributors, as is Rodrigues, whose breakout season puts him at an impressive 15 goals and 30 points in 34 games. Plus, there’s Letang’s 28 points from the blue line.
It translates to both even-strength play and the man-advantage, where the team is sixth in offensive generation in terms of expected goals for.
All of this is to show that the Penguins, even though they missed their captain for 12 games to start the season, are a legitimate threat to contend once again this season.
And there’s still reinforcements on the way, once Jason Zucker and Malkin return to play.
So while the Penguins may not have too many more kicks at the can with this group of players given their long-term contract situation, they legitimately could have a chance this season if they continue to build on their success so far.
Data via Sportlogiq
