Player Props: Pastrnak, Bruins host Leafs in Bertuzzi return

November 02, 2023 - 3:55pm

Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe says the ability to respond when their backs are against the wall has been a trademark of this group, and says he thinks facing the Bruins in Boston will bring out the best of them.

There are a dozen games on the NHL schedule Thursday and an Eastern Conference rivalry renewal between the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs is among the more intriguing matchups on tap.

Boston, despite all the off-season roster turnover, remains in a familiar spot atop the Atlantic Division standings as one of two NHL clubs yet to lose in regulation. Toronto, meanwhile, has had an up-and-down start to their 2023-24 campaign, registering only three goals on their current two-game skid.

This matchup should have plenty of eyeballs on it considering the two fan bases involved, and the shots on goal player props market should be a particularly fun one since there are four players currently ranked top 10 in shots on goal.

David Pastrnak shots: Over 4.5 (-125) | Under 3.5 (-115)
Auston Matthews shots: Over 3.5 (-150) | Under 3.5 (+110)
William Nylander shots: Over 3.5 (-110) | Under 3.5 (-130)
John Tavares shots: Over 3.5 (+110) | Under 3.5 (-150)

Pastrnak is off to yet another hot start, ranking fifth in league points and third in both shots and goals. The 2023 Hart Trophy runner-up has five or more shots in four of nine games this season and has averaged 3.7 shots on goal when facing Toronto.

Matthews and Nylander are also both top-10 in goals and rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in shots on goal. Tavares is tied for ninth in shots.

Pastrnak (+100) and Matthews (+100) carry the shortest anytime goal odds in the matchup, followed by Brad Marchand (+175), Nylander (+180) and Tavares (+180).

Pastrnak scored in both of Boston’s home games against Toronto in 2022-23 and has scored in four straight home games against Toronto overall dating back a few seasons. Pastrnak has 17 goals and 29 points in 24 career regular-season games against the Maple Leafs. His seven even-strength goals and 10 even-strength points lead the NHL and he is on pace for his fourth 40-goal campaign in five years.

Tyler Bertuzzi is another notable forward to watch when these teams hit the ice at TD Garden. Bertuzzi will be facing many of his former teammates after spending 21 games with Boston earlier this calendar year following a late-season trade from Detroit. The winger also registered an impressive five goals, five assists in a brief seven-game playoff run as a member of the Bruins.

Bertuzzi has two goals and one assist this season with Toronto, ranking seventh on the team with 18 shots on goal.

Here are Bertuzzi’s prop lines vs. his former club via Bet365:

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CANUCKS FACE LOWLY SHARKS

What do Red Wings forward Alex DeBrincat, Ducks forward Frank Vatrano and the entire San Jose Sharks roster have in common? They all have registered exactly nine total goals so far this season. Yikes.

San Jose only has one player with more than three points so far this season. It’s Tomas Hertl with a mere one goal and four assists through nine games. No Sharks forward has more than 18 shots on goal through nine games. Filip Zadina and Fabian Zetterlund are the lone Sharks with multiple goals.

One bit of silver lining, if you’re going to tempt fate by betting any Sharks player props, is that you can get decent value for things like anytime goals or points, since they’ve been so rare for San Jose players this season.

These are the nine Sharks players with the best anytime goal odds vs. Vancouver via DraftKings:

Kaapo Kahkonen is expected to get the unenviable task of starting in net for San Jose against the Canucks. The Sharks, as a team, have allowed at least three goals against in all but one game this season, and the team has scored more than one goal in a game only once. Not a winning formula.

Here are Kahkonen’s Thursday prop lines vs. Vancouver via DraftKings:

Total Saves: Over 28.5 (-125) | Under 28.5 (-105)
Goals Against: Over 3.5 (+110) | Under 3.5 (-140)
Shutout: Yes (+1800) | No (-6500)

The Canucks are tied for third in the league entering Thursday’s action in goals per game by averaging an even four goals through their opening nine contests — during which they are 6-2-1.

San Jose is the last remaining winless team and Sports Interaction has posted special Sharks-related props for when the team will pick up its first victory:

Next game (Thursday vs. VAN): +170
Games 2-3 from now (vs. PIT or vs. PHI): +150
Games 4-5 from now (vs. EDM or at VGK): +500
Games 6+ from now (meaning they stay winless until Nov. 12): +550

WILL REST ADVANTAGE BENEFIT OILERS?

Can Edmonton take advantage of a Dallas team travelling with no rest after the Stars defeated the Flames 4-3 in regulation Wednesday? Edmonton has been resting since Sunday’s outdoor win over Calgary, a game in which Connor McDavid returned from injury earlier than initially expected. McDavid extended his point streak with one assist that game. The Oilers superstar has at least one point in each of the six games in which he has suited up; he has multiple points in half of those games.

McDavid has 11 goals, 28 points and 60 shots on goal in 18 career games facing Dallas. He had two goals, two assists in three games against them last season.

Here are McDavid’s prop lines vs. the Stars via Bet365:

Dallas has won five of six overall and scored at least four goals in each of their past four wins, however based on the DraftKings odds below, the Stars are not expected to score more than three against the Oilers.

Also of note ahead of this Western Conference matchup is Leon Draisaitl’s five-game goal drought. It’s only his second five-game goalless streak in the past three seasons. Draisaitl has just six goals against Dallas in 21 career games. He boasts the game’s shortest anytime goal odds at an even +100.

(Betting odds above as of Thursday afternoon and subject to change)