Scout's Analysis: An off-season blueprint for the Maple Leafs

It’s incredible how quickly time passes. Not long ago the Toronto Maple Leafs were in the midst of a rebuild the organization was hoping would end with them contending for Stanley Cup championships. Now, after more than nine years trying to piece together the right winning strategy, the Leafs iced the fourth-oldest roster in the NHL this past season and, though they took Florida to Game 7, fell well short of their ultimate goal again.

The core group never made it past the second round.

And now, major change has already happened at the top of the organization, with Brendan Shanahan being let go. GM Brad Treliving and head coach Craig Berube have been tasked with presenting a team building strategy from here that they believe will finally be able to help the team push through in the post-season.

That process starts with a thorough review of the 2024-25 Leafs roster, their pending free agents, prospects in the pipeline, draft capital, and how much money they have to spend in free agency.

Here's my assessment of Toronto's roster and the strategy I would recommend this off-season, including term left on contracts and associated cap hit.

GOALIES

The Leafs are fortunate to have two solid goaltenders on the NHL roster. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll are the least of my concerns heading into the summer. They both provided steady results the entire season. 

Anthony Stolarz, $2.5 million AAV, one year remaining

The team could not have asked for anything more from the 31-year-old Stolarz, who started the most games of his NHL career. He posted a 2.14 GAA and .926 save percentage in the regular season in 34 games. It was unfortunate to see him go down with a concussion in the Panthers series when he was playing at the top of his game. He’s at worst a 1B goalie at this stage of his career. 

Joseph Woll, $3.66 million, three years remaining

Woll started the season dealing with injuries, but ended up starting 42 games and posting a 2.73 GAA and .909 save percentage. He gave the Leafs a chance in the playoffs when he came on in relief of an injured Stolarz, and ping ponged between spectacular and average versus the Panthers. With his new deal kicking in next fall I’m looking for Woll to eclipse 50 starts and trend towards being a true 1A NHL starter. 

DEFENCEMEN

Treliving has rebuilt the Leafs defence corps since he arrived in Toronto and in my opinion this year’s version was the deepest the organization has had in years. 

Morgan Rielly, $7.5 million, five years remaining

Rielly took on a secondary role on the power play, didn’t kill penalties, and suffered through some uneven play at even strength. His pace isn’t what it used to be and it impacted his ability to close on opponents to take away time and space. Having said that, he did play some of his best hockey towards the end of the regular season and continued to log over 21 minutes per game while dressing for all 82 games. 

With five years remaining on his contract, Rielly is a player I’m considering trading in the off-season, but he has a full no-movement clause in his contract so he has a say in the process. 

Chris Tanev, $4.5 million, five years remaining

Tanev played to his identity. He’s an absolute warrior who logs over 20 hard minutes every night and sacrifices for the team. He finished the regular season plus-31 and led the group with 189 shot blocks, good for sixth-most in the entire NHL. 

Jake McCabe, $4.513 million, five years remaining

McCabe empties the tank every game. He matches up against top players, logs over 21 minutes per game, plays through injuries and leads by example. He earns every penny of his contract. 

Simon Benoit, $1.35 million, two years remaining

Benoit’s role has evolved and his value peaked in the playoffs, when he averaged over 18 minutes a game and led the Leafs defencemen in hits (42) and shot blocks (39). All of his shifts come at even strength and on the penalty-kill.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, $3.5 million, three years remaining

OEL was deployed in all situations in the regular season and provided some secondary offense (4G-25A) with most of his points coming at even strength (2G-23A). Something I’m monitoring is his overall defensive detail in the back end of the year and playoffs. After averaging 1:04 per game on the penalty-kill in the regular season, he was the Leafs' fifth defenceman in the playoffs with an average of only 0:14 per game. 

Brandon Carlo, $3.48 million, two years remaining

I appreciate Carlo’s size (6-foot-6, 218 pounds) and length in the defensive zone. He’s a solid skater who takes away time and space. I’m not expecting Carlo to provide much offence, but I do feel like his stick-to-stick outlets could be executed more consistently when launching the Leafs' attack via zone exits. 

Philippe Myers, $850,000, two years remaining

Myers was the Leafs seventh defenceman but he did provide some solid minutes in his 36 regular season games. He’s big (6-foot-6, 214 pounds) and aggressive. Myers was credited with 76 hits and 42 shot blocks. There’s a possibility Toronto might need him to slot into a more prominent role as a consistent sixth defence option next fall. 

FORWARDS

Auston Matthews, $13.25 million, three years remaining

The first-year captain wasn’t right the entire season. He suffered an injury at training camp and had to manage whatever was ailing him for the remainder of the year. Having said that, he still managed to produce 33G-45A in 67 regular season games and finished the year plus-11. Matthews was deployed in all situations and averaged over 20 minutes ice time. He was excellent in the face-off circle too, winning 57 per cent of his draws. 

The Leafs organization recognizes what they have in Matthews. When healthy, he’s one of the most elite goal scorers in the NHL and his three-zone detail has improved over time. But he’s failed to deliver high-end impact in the playoffs and the Leafs need more from their highest paid player. 

Matthews has averaged .64 goals per game in the regular season over the course of his career, but his numbers drop off dramatically in playoffs, where he averages only .38 goals per game. 

William Nylander, $11.5 million, seven years remaining

Nylander averaged over 19 minutes of ice time per game, all of it coming at even strength and on the power play. There was a time when I thought he might hit the 50-goal mark this season but he ended with 45G-39A in the regular season and followed it up with 6G-9A in the playoffs. Nylander’s approach to the game isn’t for the faint of heart. He goes about his business in his own unique way and there are certainly moments when he lacks the required engagement defensively. But Nylander is also a game breaking talent who is a threat to produce offence almost every time he hits the ice and is paid fairly in relation to the role he plays and the results he delivers.

Max Domi, $3.75 million, three years remaining 

I appreciate Domi’s effort. He’s very competitive, plays quick and fast, and attempts to get opponents off their game with his tenacity. He’s below average defensively, however, and has a knack for taking penalties at the most inopportune moments. He’s overpaid for what he provides (8G-25A, 14 minutes TOI) but I don’t see the team getting out from under his deal, especially due to the fact it carries a 13-team no-trade clause. To be fair, Domi did elevate his game in the playoffs offensively (4G-3A) and won 57 per cent of his face-offs versus Ottawa and Florida. 

David Kampf, $2.4 million, two years remaining

There isn’t a fit for Kampf moving forward, but I’m not sure there’s a team in the league that would trade for his contract. Players like Kampf can be found for less than $900,000 on a one-year deal. 

Calle Jarnkrok, $2.1 million, one year remaining

Jarnkrok has had a difficult time staying healthy and produced only 11G-17A the past two seasons. He also makes far too much money for the role he plays. When he’s healthy he can play an energy role at the bottom of an NHL lineup, so the Leafs might be able to get out from under his contract, especially after his $1.325 million bonus is paid on July 1.

(Note on Jarnkrok and Kampf: Both players have modified no-trade clauses in their contracts. How and why do these two players have trade protection? Why teams tie their own hands when it comes to the flexibility to trade depth players confounds me.)

Scott Laughton, $1.5 million, one year remaining

He didn’t produce much in the way of offence after arriving in a trade from Philadelphia, but Laughton did eventually provide some energy and consistent compete at the bottom of the Leafs lineup in the playoffs. His face-off percentage also rose to 57 per cent against the Senators and Panthers. 

Bobby McMann, $1.35 million, one year remaining

McMann made every line he played on better in the regular season. He’s a big body who can slot into a variety of roles and scored 20G-14A. He hit a wall offensively in the playoffs, but still provides value with his physical game when he’s not scoring. 

Ryan Reaves, $1.35 million, one year remaining

He’s nice to have around the organization, but Reaves isn’t an NHL player at this stage of his career and the team could use the cap space that he’s eating up in his very limited role. 

PENDING FREE AGENTS

Mitch Marner, $10.9 million, UFA

Marner is a fantastic player. He’s uber skilled and can change the trajectory of a game in the regular season. He’s coming off a 102-point season that saw him average over 21 minutes of ice time and have a role in all situations. Marner doesn’t just produce offence, he’s a solid penalty-killer whose name comes up in Selke Trophy conversations as a candidate for the best defensive forward in the NHL. He finished seventh in voting for the award this season.

Marner will get paid in free agency. He’s likely going to receive an offer for around $13 million (AAV) on the open market, but I’m not recommending, or expecting, the Leafs to sign him to an extension. Marner is a big part of the past DNA of the group and it’s a team that has fallen far too short of their playoff goals. He’s not part of the solution for me.

John Tavares, $11 million, UFA

Tavares had a great regular season. He averaged over 18 minutes per game of ice time, with all of his shifts coming at even strength and with the man advantage. He remains one of the most dangerous forwards in the middle of the ice on the power-play. His ability to tip pucks, or leverage around the crease to cash in on rebounds is a unique element he continues to possess. Tavares produced 38G-36A in the regular season, followed by 5G-2A in the playoffs. He also won over 58 per cent of his face-offs, which allows the group to start with the puck more often than their opponents. 

I appreciate what Tavares can bring to the Leafs moving forward, but I also have to be realistic about his trajectory. In time he will likely have to move to the wing, or at least split time between centre and the flank. He’s been a Leaf for seven years and the team has failed to advance deep into the playoffs. I would bring him back at a very affordable rate, something like three years and $4 million, with the expectation he understands we need to get him signed at that number so we can build out the rest of the roster appropriately. The team can’t afford to overspend on Tavares despite the value he provided this season. 

Max Pacioretty, $873,000, UFA

Pacioretty gave all he had in the playoffs after only playing 37 regular season games due to injuries. He posted 3G-8A and led the team with 61 hits in the playoffs. The veteran forward sounds like he’s retiring, so Toronto needs to find someone on the market who plays a similar style to Pacioretty. They need more of what he provided in the playoffs. 

Steven Lorentz, $775,000, UFA

Lorentz is a predictable player to have on a fourth line. He works his tail off every time his number is called and pushes back physically. Lorentz only averaged 12 minutes of ice time in the playoffs, but he finished third on the Leafs with 42 hits. 

I’m comfortable signing the 29-year-old depth forward to a two-year extension that counts $1.25 million against the cap.

Matthew Knies, $925,000, RFA

I recently wrote an article that specifically outlined how important it is to get Knies signed to a favourable extension. A power forward who could score north of 35 goals and dish out over 200 hits is a rarity in today’s NHL. He’s a special talent who I believe embodies how the team needs to play when the games get hard in the spring and potential captain material in the future. 

Pontus Holmberg, $800,000, RFA

The pending RFA doesn’t fit the mold of how I would build out the roster moving forward. I’d take another Lorentz style of player over Holmberg. 

Nick Robertson, $875,000, RFA

Robertson gave all he could this past season and deserves credit for competing to the best of his ability. He was barely used in the playoffs and that’s the measuring stick for me. Robertson might score 20 goals for another team in the league, but he also doesn’t fit the mold of what the Leafs need next season. 

PROSPECTS IN THE PIPELINE

I’m not going to spend a ton of time on Toronto's prospects who might have a chance to break camp with the NHL team next fall. I’m not comfortable projecting anyone who looks poised to make the jump to full-time duty. The organization isn’t flush with NHL ready players outside of their main roster. 

Easton Cowan is the Leafs' top prospect. He had an up and down year with the London Knights in the regular season (29G-40A in 46GP) but rebounded nicely in the playoffs (13G-26A in 17GP) and played to the identity he displayed in his draft year and first training camp with Toronto. 

Cowan still has some learning to do before arriving as a full time player with the Maple Leafs, and some time in the AHL will benefit his overall growth.

The leading scorer for the Toronto Marlies, Alex Steeves, is a pending Group 6 free agent. Steeves produced 36G-26A in the AHL, but since he’s 25 years old and hasn’t suited up for at least 80 NHL games with the Leafs he’s eligible to sign with any team in the league. 

DRAFT CAPITAL

Toronto has been attempting to bolster its roster in hopes of going on deep playoff runs for several seasons now and that process has cost them significant draft capital. Toronto’s Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Leach will be heading the Leafs' table at the upcoming draft, but he isn’t armed with a ton of slots to select players, especially in the first two rounds of the next three draft cycles. 

OFF-SEASON TEAM BUILDING STRATEGY

• The 2025 free agent class isn’t exceptionally deep and the Leafs don’t have the kind of draft capital it takes to offer sheet a player from another organization. 

• After Toronto extends Knies they can approach Tavares with an offer that makes sense for the organization. As noted, Tavares was great in the regular season, but his impact in the Florida series fell off dramatically over the final four games (zero points, minus-5). 

• If the Leafs are willing to overpay in free agency the obvious name to target on the market is Sam Bennett. He won’t come cheap and is going to want as much term as possible. The sticker shock of the deal could surpass $9 million on the open market and his camp will undoubtedly be looking for a seven-year contract.

If not Bennett, here are some of the other possible free agents set to hit the open market in July who Toronto could have interest in:

Forwards: Pius Suter (VAN), Ryan Donato (CHI), Brock Boeser (VAN), Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG), Brad Marchand (FLA), Jack Roslovic (CAR), Brandon Tanev (WPG).

Defencemen: Matt Grzelcyk (PIT), Aaron Ekblad (FLA), Ivan Provorov (CBJ), Ryan Lindgren (COL).

In the NHL, entire pro staffs go through the process of identifying players for the organization to target, including getting input from an analytics team and capologists. With that in mind, here are my initial thoughts on how the Leafs could go about reconstructing their roster this summer:

Transactions:

• Toronto trades Morgan Rielly and the rights to restricted free agent goaltender Dennis Hildeby to the Utah Mammoth. Toronto retains $2 million of Rielly’s AAV, which expires in 2030. In return, Toronto picks up Lawson Crouse.

• Toronto signs free agent forward Sam Bennett to a seven-year, $63 million contract, getting him to a $9 million AAV. 

• Toronto signs forward Ryan Donato to a three-year, $9 million contract ($3 million AAV).

• Toronto signs forward Joel Kiviranta to a two-year, $2.5 million contract ($1.25 million AAV).

• Toronto signs defenceman Matt Grzelcyk to a two-year, $7 million contract ($3.5 million AAV).

Thought process:

• Utah needs a second defenceman who is capable of quarterbacking a power-play unit and providing offence behind Mikhail Sergachev (15G-38A). Adding Rielly (7G-34A) to the mix gives them exactly that option.

• Utah currently lacks a strong backup or No. 3 option in net. Acquiring Hildeby provides them an option and time to allow top goalie prospect Michael Hrabel to mature before eventually arriving in the NHL. 

• If I’m Utah I wouldn’t want to take on Rielly’s full contract. Toronto would have to retain $2 million per year of the deal. 

• Toronto receives a power forward in Lawson Crouse who is coming off a down year, but he scored 23 and 24 goals in the two season prior. Crouse can be deployed in all situations and plays a heavy game, credited with 193 hits this past season despite his ice time dropping to an average of 14 minutes per game.

Note: Utah has a similar player on its roster in Jack McBain, which makes the trade less painful for the Mammoth in terms of losing a power forward like Crouse. Especially when they plug a hole elsewhere on their roster. 

• It's obvious why Toronto would have interest in acquiring Bennett. He provides the elements of toughness and offence -- especially in hard games -- the Leafs are searching for. 

• Kiviranta is a bit of an under the radar forward who produced a career-high 16 goals for the Colorado Avalanche this season. If he potted 10 goals for the Leafs I’d be pleased. He isn’t a huge body (5-foot-11, 181 pounds) but he’s hard to play against. Kiviranta was credited with 114 hits in the regular season and followed it up with 20 hits in the seven-game series versus Dallas in the opening round. He’s a bottom six forward who can kill penalties.

• Adding Donato will come with some risk. He might never again produce what he did this past season in Chicago (31G-31A), but he is a competitive player who I’m willing to bet on producing close to the same if he ends up on a line with either Matthews, Bennett or Tavares. 

• Signing Grzelcyk adds a veteran defenceman who should be affordable and contributed 1G-39A in Pittsburgh this year. He averaged over 21 minutes per game of ice time, was deployed in all situations, and blocked 101 shots.                                                                                         

If all goes to this plan, the Leafs would return in the fall with this roster:

Cap Implications

With this roster and including the $2 million retained in trading Rielly, the Leafs' cap projection would be $93.2 million, leaving them with $2.3 million in cap space.