Back in the summer of 2019, Tampa Bay netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy signed an eight-year contract with a $9.5 million cap hit. This was right after he won his first Vezina Trophy, but also right after his Presidents' Trophy-winning Lightning were swept out of the first round by Columbus. He was five years into his career at that point, but already established as one of the best in the game.
Still, at the time, a $9.5 million cap hit for a goalie was a lot. Year 1 of his extension would count for 11.66 per cent of the cap, which today would be equivalent to about a $12.1 million AAV. No goalie makes that amount. Seven years later, Vasilevskiy's AAV is still second-highest among goalies, and he's since won two Stanley Cups and another Vezina.
Why do we bring this up? Because at the time of Vasilevskiy's signing, our Cap Comparables article analyzing the deal explored the pros and cons of spending so much money on a position with two juxtaposing realities: a) it's the most important position to the success of your hockey club and b) it's the most difficult one to get right. The graveyard of flash-in-the-pan goalies is large, while those worth such a salary are few and far between.
We compared the value of NHL goalies to that of an NFL running back. The idea that "running backs don't matter" in football came from evidence that it may not be prudent to pay a premium for the position when the offensive line blocking for them is so important to any runner's success. Of course, this doesn't mean running backs actually don't matter — you can't scheme them out of your game plan. But it's a position to be financially prudent with.
That same idea is prevalent in NHL discourse when it comes to goaltenders. The defence and structure in front of a netminder has so much influence on their workload that it's arguably the more important element to spend on. It's also difficult to project young players at the goaltending position, so one draft strategy that has emerged is to take a goaltender once a year (or close to it) and hope one of them hits in the long term.
However, for running backs and goaltenders especially, there is one scenario where you throw this theory out the window...
If you have an established star, it's often worth the cost.
"It's no different than any other position in the sense that I'm in the prediction business. I'm trying to put together a roster and predict the future outcomes of hockey players and I just think that the nuances involved at the goaltending position are just considerably different than at forward or defence," Devils GM Sonny Mehta told Arthur Staple a few weeks ago. "Relative to the other positions there tends to be a lot more unpredictability in the results and so that matters to me as the GM when part of my job is allocating resources to not only different positions, but also to different players. It's really that simple."
Back in September, Mehta said he was comfortable with New Jersey's goalies going into the season, but that doesn't oblige him to have an 84-game commitment to the duo. The fact is, after 10 games and even with a 6-4-0 record, the goaltending has held the Devils back from a better start.
At 5-on-5, no team has a lower expected goals against per 60 minutes than the Devils, but their actual goals against rank 15th. According to MoneyPuck.com, Nico Daws and Jake Allen rank 53rd and 60th, respectively, out of 68 netminders in Goals Saved Above Expected. To this point, New Jersey's tandem has ranked 24th in the league by all-situations team save percentage.
Mehta has been painted with the "anti-goalie" brush, but that's hardly a fair distinction. Listen to him talk, and he'll mention probabilities and nuances of the position. What we see by the numbers is a Devils team that is capable defensively, but hasn't gotten the goaltending yet. And in Hellebuyck, they have now acquired one of these netminders who has historically been reliable.
A three-time Vezina winner and one-time Hart Trophy winner, from 2021-22 through last season, Hellebuyck's combined .915 save percentage ranks second in the league, just behind Igor Shesterkin's (.916). Much has been made of Hellebuyck's playoff shortcomings — and it's true his last three runs through the post-season weren't great. But in his four post-seasons prior to that, Hellebuyck had a .921 save percentage and one trip to the Western Final.
There are a couple of other potential pitfalls here. One is that he is already 33 years old and finished with a below-league-average save percentage just last season. Even that comes with a caveat: Winnipeg had problems defensively, and Hellebuyck's goals saved above expected was well into the positive in 2025-26. This is the kind of nuance that makes goaltenders tricky. There's also the fact that Hellebuyck missed training camp and hasn't played an NHL game yet — we've seen many examples of players going on to have poor seasons after delayed starts (Jeremy Swayman in 2024), but it's not a guaranteed outcome.
Friday's trade was one the Winnipeg Jets were forced into. Hellebuyck's suspension ended Friday, and the team was due to start paying him again, whether he returned or not. Given the situation Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff was in, he was able to get a rather good return for Hellebuyck: First-round prospect Alexander Command, middle-six forward Dawson Mercer, big-bodied NHLer Nick Bjugstad (injured long-term), tandem goalie Daws, and a couple of draft picks.
And the Devils get a goalie with a track record who they are betting on to get them into the playoffs and that he'll give them a better chance to also get through the post-season. That's the play, that's the gamble.
With more on the deal from both sides, we turn to our scout Jason Bukala:
Scout's Analysis
To Winnipeg: Alexander Command, Nico Daws, Nick Bjugstad, Dawson Mercer, 2029 second-rounder, 2027 seventh-rounder
There’s lots to unpack in this trade, but the Jets are receiving one of my biggest risers from last year’s draft class in centre Alexander Command.
Here’s my updated scouting card on Command:
In the summer of 2025, Command was left off Sweden’s U18 team at the Hlinka/Gretzky Cup. That tournament marks the unofficial start to a new scouting season and provides teams with a head start on preparing for the annual NHL Draft.
Looking back on Command’s rise in the rankings last year, what stood out for me was the fact that he didn’t sit back and sulk about not being included on the roster. Instead, Command dug in and worked harder and smarter from September until the end of his season. He ended up playing a massive role for Team Sweden at the U18 World Championship the following April, producing three goals, four assists and a plus-4 rating in seven games. Sweden ended up winning gold with Command skating in the middle six and being deployed in a variety of roles, including checking against top lines, while getting between 16 and 20 minutes of ice time.
In my opinion, Command is still two years away from full-time NHL duty. He's currently still in Sweden with Orebro, so spending a season next year in the AHL will benefit his development and allow him to acclimate to the different style of play on an NHL-sized ice surface. When he does arrive in the NHL, the Jets will appreciate his attention to detail on and off the puck, his willingness to compete in the trenches, and his combination of speed and skill to transport the play in open ice.
Winnipeg has been looking for centre depth for a while, and now will have options at the position with Viggo Bjorck, Brayden Yager and now Command potentially locking down slots as they mature at the NHL level.
Mercer is a proven 20-goal scorer at the NHL level and he's at his best when he’s pushing his limits with an energetic approach. Just 24 years old, he's already in his sixth NHL season, but still tracking towards his prime years in the league. Mercer is a pending RFA who comes to Winnipeg with a $4 million cap hit. His qualifying offer is set at $4.25 million next summer, but the Jets will no doubt attempt to sign him to a long extension that would make sense for the player and the club. Otherwise, he will qualify for unrestricted free agency in 2028.
At worst, Mercer is a middle-six option for the Jets. His historical goal scoring stands out, but the fact he can be deployed in all situations provides Winnipeg an extra option for a variety of roles throughout the season.
Daws is signed through next season at $1.1 million, and he provides the Jets with an additional security blanket between the posts. He’s only played 59 NHL games to date, but he has a 26-26-1 record and a career 2.94 GAA/.897 SV%.
Daws is only 25 years old. He’s big in the net (six-foot-four, 205 pounds) and a decent athlete. I’m not convinced Daws is a goalie who can grab the starting position for the Jets, but at his age he still has runway ahead of him to establish himself as more than a backup. He could end up providing the same kind of value former teammate Mackenzie Blackwood does for the Colorado Avalanche. Time will tell.
Bjugstad is a 34-year-old NHL veteran who is currently on the shelf recovering from a torn pectoral muscle. He isn’t expected to return until January. When Bjugstad is healthy he will challenge for a slot at the bottom of the Jets lineup. Bjugstad can play the middle or the wing. He still plays with decent pace, but he’s definitely a checking forward more than a point producer.
The Jets also acquired some draft capital in this trade. It never hurts to add extra draft slots and the Jets did well to strengthen their board by acquiring a 2029 second and 2027 seventh.
As of today, the Jets draft board looks like:
To New Jersey: Connor Hellebuyck
The New Jersey Devils add a Vezina-quality goaltender and recent Olympic gold medallist in Hellebuyck. The Devils have felt like a team that has been on the verge of taking the next step in recent years, but they have been bitten by the injury bug and, to be frank, poor goaltending.
Hellebuyck is a significant upgrade for New Jersey. He won back-to-back Vezina trophies in 2024 and 2025 and has consistently played between 57-66 games per year as an NHL starter. The Devils are certainly hoping the version of Hellebuyck they receive will trend towards his 2.01 goals-against average and .925 save percentage from two seasons ago compared to the 2.86/.895 he posted last season.
Hellebuyck is signed through the 2030-31 season, with an affordable $8.5 million cap hit considering where the upper limit is going. Locking in a No. 1 netminder like this for five years will take the pressure off New Jersey having to address its goaltending, and allow them to focus their efforts and money on other places on the roster in an effort to build out what they hope will be a championship roster before Hellebuyck’s contract expires.
*Player cards provided by The Pro Hockey Group
*Stats courtesy of Elite Prospects
*Contract information provided by PuckPedia
*Video Analysis/TOI courtesy of Hudl Instat
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