Scout's Analysis: How the Maple Leafs' top prospects are developing

As the Toronto Maple Leafs battle through a difficult part of the schedule with some tough results, I began evaluating the growth of some of their top prospects in an effort to get a better understanding of the overall trajectory for the future.

Leafs fans could use some good news right about now, and when you look at the players being developed, there is reason to be optimistic. After all, this is an organization that has been thin on prospects because of its willingness to trade away draft capital to chase playoff success. But former scouting director Mark Leach — now with the Detroit Red Wings — delivered some solid NHL prospects before he was let go last summer.

The players I’m about to identify will require more time to develop, but they are valuable assets nonetheless.

Here’s a look at how some of the Leafs' top prospects outside of the NHL have been performing this season.

Alexander Bilecki, 6-foot-2, 181 pounds, left-shot defenceman
Drafted: 60^th overall in 2026
NHL projection: Two-way, transitional defenceman. Top four, potential top pair.
NHL arrival: 2028-29 season

Bilecki is developing in the OHL playing for the defending Memorial Cup-champion Kitchener Rangers. The experience he picked up last season during the Rangers' march to a championship has spilled over to this season and resulted in a confident-looking prospect who is being deployed in all situations. Bilecki averages over 25 minutes of ice time per game. He matches up against top-six opponents and has a massive role on the power-play and penalty-killing units. He’s already contributed two goals and 15 assists and posted a plus-4 through 17 games.

What stands out for me about Bilecki is his exceptional skating stride. He’s quick to take away time and space, reads how plays are developing off the puck and can lead or join the rush offensively. Bilecki has been involved physically, too. He doesn’t shy away from contact or engaging in the trenches to battle for position. 

I want to show you a couple of examples of some good things I’ve noticed from Bilecki this season.

This first clip shows Bilecki reading his opponent as they attempt to outlet a puck in the middle of the neutral zone. Bilecki intercepts the play and attacks offensively. 

The second clip displays Bilecki engaging defensively before the puck spills to his stick. He then outlets the puck and uses his legs to explode up ice and become an extra layer on the attack. He gets involved in the offensive end and scores a goal to finish the play.

Ben Danford, 6-foot-2, 194 pounds, right-shot defenceman
Drafted: 31^st overall in 2024
NHL projection: Two-way potential, leaning shutdown defenceman. Bottom pair. 
NHL arrival: 2027-28 season

Danford was a leader at the OHL level when he played for the Oshawa Generals and Brantford Bulldogs, and he’s proving to be a quick study at the AHL level with the Toronto Marlies. He’s a two-way defenceman who has the size, pace and commitment to contain middle-six forwards and kill penalties. 

Danford won’t be counted on to produce offence, but he’s a capable puck mover who had contributed four assists in his first 11 games with the Marlies before sustaining a wrist fracture. Like Bilecki, Danford reads how plays are developing well, and gaps up to intercept pucks or finish his check accordingly. I’ve noticed how he leverages well versus all body types in the trenches and shows a willingness to block shots. 

Tinus Luc Koblar, 6-foot-3, 198 pounds, left-shot forward
Drafted: 64^th overall in 2025
NHL projection: Third-line, 200-foot forward. Ability to be used in a variety of roles.
NHL arrival: 2028-29 season

Koblar is a big-bodied forward who has the ability and hockey sense to be used at centre or the wing. He’s an interesting prospect who holds dual citizenship (Norway/Slovenia). Koblar has been developing in Sweden, first with Leskands IF at the J18, U20 and SHL levels, and now with Rogle in the Swedish Hockey League. 

In his most recent 10-game segment, Koblar saw between 12-17 minutes per game of ice time. The bulk of his shifts came at even strength and on the power play, and he produced two goals and one assist, and a plus-3 in the segment. 

Toronto coaches will learn to trust Koblar when he arrives in North America. He reads how plays are developing, makes sure he’s on the right side of his check off the puck and has a knack for producing timely offence. He’s the kind of prospect who is most likely to land on the third line of a strong team, but he can certainly slide into the second line when required. 

Here’s an example of Koblar locking on to his check, remaining with him into the neutral zone, and then exploding to open space when his group regains possession:

Artur Akhtyamov, 6-foot-2, 176 pounds, left-catching goaltender
Drafted: 106^th overall in 2020
NHL projection: NHL backup/Potential No. 1B starter
NHL arrival: 2026-27 season

Akhtyamov is no longer a young developing goaltender. He’s 25 years old and on the periphery of being a full-time NHL netminder. Akhtyamov led the AHL Marlies to a Calder Cup last June and has dressed as a backup for the Leafs on a couple of occasions this fall.

He’s signed through the 2028-29 season. This season, his contract is a two-way deal that pays him $300,000 in the minors and $850,000 in the NHL. That contract changes to a one-way deal in its final two years and comes at a cap hit of $900,000 for the Leafs. 

The reality is Toronto hasn’t yet received consistent netminding from Sergei Bobrovsky (3.47 goals-against average, .881 save percentage), but Anthony Stolarz (2.72 GAA, .908 save percentage) has generally been solid. It will be interesting to see if Akhtyamov finds his way into NHL games in the not-too-distant future. Toronto needs to start winning games as soon as possible and Akhtyamov might give the group a shot in the arm emotionally if he gets the call and takes advantage of the opportunity. 

Like a lot of Russian goaltenders, Akhtyamov plays an active and athletic style. He’s aggressive fronting shooters and always competes to make secondary saves. His approach does lead to some messy moments out front of the crease because his rebound control is just average, but as stated above, he’s very competitive and willing to do whatever it takes to keep the puck out of his net. 

Here’s an example of what I’m describing:

Decision pending on Nicholas Moldenhauer

A third-round pick (95th overall) in 2022, Moldenhauer is playing out his college career at the University of Michigan. The Wolverines are one of the top-ranked outfits in the NCAA and have a roster loaded with drafted players and some decent free agents. 

In some ways, Moldenhauer, a five-foot-11, 181-pound right-shot forward, reminds me of Zach Hyman at the same stage in his development. 

Hyman took time to develop when he was at Michigan. In his first three seasons combined, Hyman produced only 13 goals and 22 assists in 114 games. Hyman’s entire game went to another level in his senior season, when he produced 22 goals and 32 assists in 37 games.

Moldenhauer contributed 11 goals and 20 assists in his first two seasons at Michigan before increasing his total to 15 goals and 16 assists in 40 games last season. This season, he has chipped in one goal and nine assists in nine games. 

My point is, Moldenhauer has been trending upward and I consider him a valuable asset for the Leafs. It’s highly unlikely Moldenhauer will mature into the same type of NHL player Hyman has become, but the fact his offence has steadily been trending up while his defensive commitment is in place gives me plenty to think about.

The Leafs will have until August to sign Moldenhauer to an entry-level contract. If he decides he’s not interested in signing with Toronto, he will become an NCAA free agent next August. The other thing the Leafs could do in that scenario is trade his signing rights to another NHL team ahead of the draft. He's a player to watch.