Scout's Analysis: How the Winnipeg Jets should approach the trade deadline

It’s been a banner year so far for most of the Canadian NHL teams based in Western Canada.

The Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets have let it be known they are prepared to challenge for playoff success this spring. The exception are the Calgary Flames, who could be one of the busier outfits at the trade deadline if they decide a retool of their roster is required. 

As part of my ongoing analysis of Canadian teams, and their potential strategy for the upcoming trade deadline, it’s time to take a look at what could be in store for the Winnipeg Jets.

Here’s my breakdown:

PROSPECT DEPTH

The Winnipeg Jets are a franchise that values the draft and development process more than most NHL organizations. They value selecting players and integrating them into their system. The Jets have never been an overly aggressive team in the trade market, or free agency. They rely on director of amateur scouting, Mark Hillier, and his staff to stock the cupboards with homegrown talent.

It’s my belief teams will be requesting prospects from the Jets, rather than picks, in exchange for players at the deadline.

Here are some names who could generate interest:

Nikita Chibrikov, F, Drafted 50^th overall in 2022

Chibrikov is a 5-foot-10, 170-pound forward who is developing in the AHL with the Manitoba Moose where he's produced 13 goals and 16 assists. He’s only 20 years young. Chibrikov has a lot of learning to do, but his skill is undeniable. He plays the game quick, can be a threat off the rush, and works the flank on the power play. Chibrikov is a minus-13 on the year, which means he’s adjusting to the way the game is played in North America. He has room for more off the puck awareness and full ice detail.

NHL Projection: Middle six offence/second unit PP at worst. All of his ice time will come at even strength and PP

Brad Lambert, F, Drafted 30^th overall in 2022

Lambert is thriving at the AHL level. He’s playing to his identity, leading the power play breakout and attacking the offensive zone with speed off the rush. The 6-foot, 183-pound forward is being used at even strength, the first-unit power play, 4-on-4 and 3-on-3. He’s produced 12 goals, 13 assists and is a plus-1. Lambert is difficult to defend in motion. Defensively he’s elevated to average plus, making his offensive element more attractive.

NHL Projection: Second line speed forward/better than secondary scorer. Power play/4vs4/3vs3. Not likely to be used in matchup scenarios or on the penalty kill at the NHL level.

Rutger McGroarty, F, Drafted 14^th overall in 2022

McGroarty captained Team USA to gold at the recent World Junior Championship and produced five goals and four assists in seven games. He’s developing at the University of Michigan where he has chipped in with nine goals and 22 assists so far this season.

McGroarty projects as a combination power/finesse forward. He’s equally efficient net front battling for space as he is one timing pucks from the weak side flank on the power play. His skating continues to improve as he matures. He’s plenty quick enough to track the full 200 feet at the pro level. At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, McGroarty gives opponents all they can handle along the wall and in the trenches.

NHL Projection: Top six forward/better than secondary scorer. Plays the game whatever way the opponent choses, physical or finesse. Second unit power play at worst.

Elias Salomonsson, D, Drafted 55^th overall in 2022

Salomonsson is a 6-foot-2, 185-pound, right-shot, two-way defenceman who plays for Skelleftea in the SHL. Salomonsson was part of the silver medal winning world junior team for Sweden.

I don’t project Salomonsson to produce much offence when he arrives in North America, but he does have some sneaky playmaking ability. He’s not just a “glass and out” defenceman. He’s averaged between 18-24 minutes of ice time with Skelleftea. His ice time ranges due to the fact he is deployed at even strength and the penalty kill. Salomonsson moves efficiently and has some bump to his game on occasion.

Here's a look at what he’s capable of when I say “sneaky skill”:

NHL Projection: Bottom/middle pairing two-way, matchup defenceman. Even strength and penalty kill.

Dmitri Rashevsky, F, Drafted 146^th overall in 2021

I’ve mentioned Rashevsky in the past, and I’m continuing to monitor his growth as a prospect. He’s a 6-foot-1 165-pound offensive forward who continues to produce in the KHL (playing for Moscow Dynamo). Rashevsky has contributed 20 goals and 17 assists in 54 games this season, averaging between 14-18 minutes per game, depending on special teams. All of his ice time comes at even strength and the power play.

If Rashevsky isn’t interested in the Jets, perhaps he would be interested in another landing spot in the NHL. He’s a really good prospect who could land in a team’s top six forward group in time. It would be a nice bit of “asset management” if the Jets could flip him for a player who could assist them with a deep playoff run this season.

Note: Any team that is interested in acquiring Rashevsky’s rights will want to speak to his agent and get a better understanding of when he plans to come to North America. There would likely be a contract “in the drawer” waiting to be signed when he’s ready.

NHL Projection: Top six scoring forward/first unit power play. Quick, fast and skilled

DRAFT CAPITAL

Winnipeg has always been efficient with its draft capital. I don’t remember a year they were dealing from a position of weakness, in relation to the number of picks they have at their disposal. Their current draft board is flush yet again, and gives them flexibility if they choose to use some of their slots in trade.

(Note: The Jets have Montreal's second-round pick. It will be interesting to see how the Jets strategize this slot since it has a chance to be a very early second round selection, certainly before pick 40, which increases its value.)

FORWARDS

This version of the Winnipeg Jets is one of the most balanced rosters in the entire NHL. They have a nice mix of skill and muscle throughout their lineup. The buy in from the top-down has been incredible. The entire group competes in all three zones and plays with reliable detail defensively without sacrificing offence.

Top three

Winnipeg is starting to see an uptick in production from players like Cole Perfetti and Gabe Vilardi, but their top three forwards remain key to their success offensively. Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor are relied upon to “set the tone” offensively for the Jets.

There’s room for improvement from Connor defensively, but as a whole this group continues to play to its strengths. The one obvious massive improvement year over year comes from Schiefele, whose plus-minus has swung in a hugely positive direction from minus-16 last season to plus-18 in 2023-24.

Secondary forwards

As mentioned above, Perfetti (14G-16A) and Vilardi (11G-9A) are coming into their own offensively. Vilardi battled injury early in the season, but when healthy it’s easy to see his upside.

The Jets' third-line of Nino Niederreiter–Adam Lowry–Mason Appleton brings a combination of skill and will. They give opponents all they can handle physically.

The rest of the group plays to its strengths as well. This is a very balanced group all together.

DEFENCEMEN

For the most part, the Jets have benefited from a healthy group of defencemen this season. Every member of their defence corps has a specific role and they play to their strengths.

Josh Morrissey leads the way offensively. Neal Pionk and Brenden Dillon push back physically, and Dylan DeMelo is a proverbial Swiss army knife for the Jets. DeMelo contributes secondary offence, plays hard matchup minutes, blocks shots and doles out his share of hits.

Here’s a look at the balance the Jets have on their back end, notice the (+/-) ratings throughout the group:

GOALTENDING

The Jets' overall team game has been outstanding this season. They have allowed more than three goals against only once in their past 35 games. But that’s also due, in large part, to the elite level goaltending the team receives from Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit.

Hellebuyck is having a Vezina Trophy worthy season again. He’s appeared in 34 games and posted a 2.17 GAA and .925 save percentage.

Brossoit has been excellent in a back up role, posting an incredible 2.07 GAA and .927 save percentage.

Rarely do NHL teams have playoff success without elite goaltending. The Jets are well positioned between the pipes.

ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS

• Jets captain Adam Lowry leads the forward group with 88 hits. He and Alex Iafallo are tied with 43 shot blocks.

• Defenceman Brenden Dillon has been credited with 114 hits.

• Dylan DeMelo leads the defencemen with 81 shot blocks.

• Starting with the puck is very important in all three zones. A playoff game can be won, or lost, off a key defensive zone faceoff.

An area of concern, for me, is the Jets' success rate in the faceoff circle. Scheifele (49.35 per cent), Lowry (49.94) and Namestnikov (37.36) are the three top faceoff takers on the Jets and they all lose more than they win. Compare that to other Western contenders Vancouver, where J.T. Miller (54.14), Teddy Blueger (50.96), Pius Suter (49.17) and Elias Pettersson (48.46) come in better as a group and the Edmonton Oilers, where Leon Draisaitl (57.14), Derek Ryan (55.61), Ryan McLeod (50.13), Connor McDavid (51.58) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (45.42) combine to make the Oilers one of the better faceoff teams in the league.

The Jets, as a team, rank 28th in faceoff winninf percentage ahead of only Buffalo, Minnesota, Arizona and Chicago.

• I’m okay with the Jets landing in the middle of the pack in the goals for per game statistic.

• I’m over the moon about their team defence and goal against per game ranking.

• The power play and penalty kill clearly have room to go to another level.

TRADE DEADLINE STRATEGY

I recognize the Jets are a team that is going in a positive direction as a unit. As simple as it sounds, they play like a team. Players clearly know their roles and play to their strengths.

They could use another player up front, however. They need someone who can take key faceoffs, kill penalties, and provide another layer of scoring. They also could perhaps upgrade their second power play unit.

As of Friday, here is what the Jets have to work with cap-wise:

Without going into too much depth on how the cap works, the most important number the Jets have to work with is their “Deadline Cap Space”. That's how much they're projected to be able to take on in "full value" AAVs come March 8.

Trade Target No. 1: Elias Lindholm, Calgary Flames, $4.85M AAV (pending UFA)

Lindholm ticks off all the boxes I described above. He can be deployed in all situations, plays fast, provides better than secondary scoring and wins 56 per cent of his draws.

To Winnipeg: Elias Lindholm

To Calgary: Brad Lambert, 2024 second-round pick (via MTL), 2024 sixth-round pick

Calgary retains 50 per cent of Lindholm's salary ($2.4 million retention)

It would be my preference to package the Jets' first- and second-round picks this year instead of including Lambert in this trade. I value Lambert more than the late first-round selection in this draft class, but other teams might as well.

Trade Target No. 2: Adam Henrique, Anaheim Ducks, $5.825M AAV (pending UFA)

Henrique is a veteran forward who can play the middle and the wing. He continues to skate at NHL pace, contributes secondary offence – especially on the power play – and wins 54 per cent of his draws.

To Winnipeg: Adam Henrique

To Anaheim: Dmitry Rashevsky, 2024 second-round pick (vita MTL), 2024 fourth-round pick

Anaheim retains 50 per cent of Henrique's salary ($2.9 million retention)

While Lindholm does not have any trade protection, Henrique has a 10-team no-trade list included in his contract, so that has to be a factor.

Winnipeg ends up spending extra draft capital to have Anaheim or Calgary retain salary in these scenarios, but those savings would allow the Jets to possibly search for another depth piece to add to their roster. They would have approximately $2.5 million in additional cap space to work with if they could get either of these teams to retain half the remaining salary.

Jason Bukala is a former NHL scouting director and founder of The Pro Hockey Group