Scout's Analysis: Three small, skilled prospects who could exceed draft ranking

As the NHL Draft draws closer, one of the most discussed topics when analyzing prospects is the “size versus skill” argument. 

Do teams value size over skill in all rounds of the draft or do they believe today’s NHL game is being played in such a way that smaller, faster, skilled players are more valuable as assets? 

Ahead of this year's draft, which I will be attending in Los Angeles, I thought it would be interesting to identify some undersized prospects who have a legitimate chance of providing value beyond their projected draft slot.

But first, some qualifying factors:

I’ve selected names from my top 80 ranking that recently dropped at Sportsnet.

Part of my process when scouting players is including “markers” that must be met for a prospect to be considered a future NHL player. Each one of the players I’m about to present qualify based on all, or most, of the following:

1. Hockey Sense: The prospect has to show a baseline understanding of how to play an NHL style game with and without the puck on their stick, and reasonable detail in all three zones. 

2. Compete: Relentless compete is preferred. When the prospect isn’t producing offence, for example, he needs to provide me a reason to believe he can defend and play with the required amount of energy that leads to team success over individual statistics. 

3. Pace: If the prospect doesn’t think the game, show willingness to outwork his opponent, and track up and down the ice on time he won’t have a chance of becoming an NHL player. His skating stride might not be the prettiest to watch, but if he gets where he needs to go, I’m not worried about how his stride looks. 

Here are some smaller prospects to keep an eye on as they develop into future NHL players.

Cameron Schmidt, RW, 5-foot-7, 160 pounds, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Ranking: No. 30

It’s hard to score goals in the NHL and players like Schmidt have to possess elite offensive hockey sense and an extra gear in open ice to create the space required to direct pucks on net. 

Schmidt landed 30th on my final draft ranking after producing 40G-38A in 61 regular season games playing for Vancouver in the WHL. He added 4G-5A in five high leverage playoff games before joining Team Canada at the U18 world championships where he contributed 2G-2A in seven games. 

Schmidt’s best shifts remind me of Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield in a lot of ways. I’m not saying he’s going to be exactly the same as Caufield when he arrives in the NHL, but if he ended up impacting the game at three quarters of Caufield’s output he will provide value much higher than where I have him ranked.

It doesn’t matter how great the shooter is, NHL goalies will routinely make saves on players who elect to direct pucks on net from outside the face-off dots or above the circles in the offensive zone. What I also appreciate about Schmidt’s game is the fact he negotiates his way into high danger shooting areas. As a result, he provides himself the best chance at depositing pucks behind opposing netminders. 

Here’s where Schmidt scored his goals from this past season:

Adam Benak, C, 5-foot-7, 160 pounds, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
Ranking: No. 50

Benak burst on to my radar two years ago as an underaged prospect competing for his native Czechia at the U18 level. He’s an energetic forward who always seems to be around the play. Benak is very difficult to contain in small spaces. He has a knack for escaping pressure along the boards and cycling the play from low to high to create scoring chances. He plays bigger than his listed size. 

Benak produced 17G-42A for Youngstown in the USHL this season and added three assists in three playoff games. He was part of Czechia’s leadership group at the U18s and played to his identity contributing 2G-5A in seven games. 

Here are some examples of what Benak is capable of when playing at the top of his game:

One area of Benak’s game that I will continue to monitor and hope for improvement in is his rate of success in the face-off circle. Starting with the puck will lead to more chances for Benak and his group to produce offence. 

Here’s a look at his success rate taking draws this season:

LJ Mooney, C, 5-foot-7, 160 pounds, USNTDP
Ranking: No. 58

There’s already a big part of me that wanted to rank Mooney higher on my list than I did. He ended the season as my 58^th-ranked prospect and if he goes in the second round the team that selects him could see the benefits down the line at the NHL level. 

Mooney is the cousin of Utah Mammoth forward Logan Cooley. He has high-end offensive instincts like his cousin and an engine that runs hot as well. Mooney produced 10G-41A at the USNTDP this season and added 2G-9A at the U18 worlds. What impresses me, in addition to his offensive upside, is how hard he works tracking up and down the ice. He’s reliable defensively and finished with a plus-13 rating in the regular season, followed by a plus-10 rating at the world championships. 

Here are some clips demonstrating Mooney’s overall impact when he’s on the ice:

Mooney doesn’t direct a massive number of shots on net, but when he does they usually come from high danger areas in the offensive zone. It says something about his ability to find open ice and rarely turn pucks over when he has possession. 

Here’s a look at his heat map from the 124 shots on goal he was credited with this season:

Conclusion

Out of the eighty players I listed on my final draft ranking, 44 players were measured at 6-foot-1 or taller. More specifically, 21 players are over 6-foot-2 and 22 are under six feet tall. 

Players like Mooney, Benak and Schmidt recognize how hard they have to push themselves to develop into NHL forwards, but I believe they all have a real chance of being productive players for the NHL teams that draft them. They will, at the very least, keep the debate about size versus skill alive and well for future draft classes.