OTTAWA — "We Want Playoffs" chants were loud and clear over the weekend.
“Love to hear," said Ottawa Senators head coach Travis Green. “No one wants it more than the guys in the room.”
“I mean, they should (chant),” said forward Shane Pinto. “I think we're too good of a team not to make it, but we still have work to do.”
Back-to-back wins over Anaheim and San Jose have fans thinking about the post-season.
Ottawa has lost just twice in regulation in its last 15 games — both one-goal losses. According to our heavily scientific dud-loss-o-meter, Ottawa hasn’t had one in 16 games since its 4-1 drubbing by Carolina on Jan. 24.
Basically, the Senators have been in every game for two months. It’s a recipe to repeatedly pick up points. Even without Jake Sanderson in their last five games, they’ve won four.
The Senators are 7-1-2 in their last 10 games and sit three points out of a playoff spot. Ottawa will have to replicate that in it next 10 to climb up the standings because nobody in the East is losing much.
The Senators' destiny will also depend on fortuitous out-of-town results. Ottawa is chasing Detroit, Boston, New York Islanders, Columbus and Pittsburgh. The Senators gained one solitary point on Detroit despite winning both of their games this weekend. Entering Monday's action, the Senators are three points back of Detroit for the final playoff spot.
The Senators are on pace for 96 points, while Detroit is on pace for 98. If the Senators finish with 96 points, they’d be tied as the team with the most points ever to miss the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
At least if the Senators do catch up, Ottawa likely will hold the tiebreaker as the Senators have more regulation wins (28) than all but Pittsburgh (28).
The math is done, now the analysis.
The team's defensive structure has given the Senators a huge boost.
“There’s no secret that we’re probably more of a forechecking team than a rush team,” said Green.
The Senators are top-five in the NHL in dump-in rate, which helps the team get behind the puck defensively and limit rush opportunities for their opponents.
Their defence has been fantastic.
“We don't give time (or) space. We don't give anything for free. Teams are going to have to earn it,” said Senators defenceman Thomas Chabot.
The Senators have shutouts in two of their last four games, allowing seven goals in that span, all without their No. 1 defenceman, Sanderson.
Since Jan. 9, the Senators sit second in the league for goals allowed per game at 2.61. A large reason is because their goaltending went from historically bad to meh.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Senators are 23rd in save percentage in that time, at .881 save percentage. Despite Linus Ullmark’s poor performance against Montreal last week, he has 1.84 goals saved above expected and with a .897 save percentage since returning from his leave of absence on Jan. 31 to tend to his mental health.
Plus, the penalty kill that burdened the Senators has jumped up to a good short-handed unit (11th) since they changed their penalty-kill coach from Nolan Baumgartner to Mike Yeo on Jan. 24.
The Senators have been playing excellent hockey to get back in the race. Ottawa’s only way of securing a playoff spot is repeating that in its final 16 games of the season.
Adams’ Apples
Pinto finding his footing
Sometimes all you need is an empty-net goal to inject some confidence. That's what happened on March 5 in Calgary for Pinto.
It’s been an up, down and rich season for Pinto, who secured a $30-million contract. Yet, his hot start cooled off. Before he got hurt on Dec. 4, he had 12 goals in his first 27 games. After returning from injury on Dec. 29, Pinto scored three times in 23 games while mustering nine points.
Since his empty-netter, however, Pinto has seven points in his last six games and shut down Macklin Celebrini on Sunday.
“First comes team defence. And then if you contribute, it's nice. Hopefully, the floodgates open. (And) I score a few here in the next 18 or 19 games,” said Pinto.
“There's been a little talk about Pinto not scoring, or that line not producing,” said Green. "But they always play a real good game, and they create enough. I've been happy with their game.”
It’s also harder to produce when Pinto starts the fewest number of shifts of any Senators forward in the offensive end: 35 per cent of them start in the o-zone. Juxtapose that to Tim Stutzle, who has 78 per cent of his shifts start in the offensive end.
Pinto is slowly becoming one of the best third-line centres in the NHL. There’s a reason he’s paid like it.
Amadio’s importance
Michael Amadio is smart, has a great stick, a good shot, and can penalty kill and produce some offence.
Mark Stone lite?
Amadio leads the team in takeaways with 24 at five-on-five.
His linemate, Pinto, called him underrated.
“Well, he's not underrated to us,” said Green. “You can always tell how the coaching staff likes a player by how much they play and what role they play in. He plays against the top players in the league. He's a big part of our penalty kill now. He plays when we have a lead. He's an extremely smart player.”
Amadio scored a deft goal against Anaheim on Saturday and followed up with two assists Sunday, which pushed the winger past an important personal milestone.
Amadio broke one of the strangest stats this writer has ever seen.
He had 27 points in each of the last three seasons. After a three-point weekend, Amadio reached a career-high 29 points. The 27-point curse is broken.
He and Pinto have created two of some of the best lines in hockey, analytically, paired with Claude Giroux earlier in the season and now with Nick Cousins. Ottawa’s third line of Cousins-Pinto-Amadio sits sixth in the league in expected goals share (minimum 100 minutes played). The line held Celebrini to one assist Sunday.
“He didn't have a lot of real high-end, Grade-A chances, and that's hard to do when he's a tough guy,” Green said about his third line limiting Celebrini.
Depth pays off
Since Warren Foegele was acquired at the trade deadline, Ottawa’s fourth line has gone from limited trust to major contributors, with Foegele tallying three points in four games.
“We're blessed to have four good lines,” said Green.
When you throw out a fourth line with two former 20-goal scorers in Fabian Zetterlund and Foegele and a veteran Stanley Cup-winner in Lars Eller, that’s depth.
“They might not be playing quite as much as they'd like to. We talk to them a lot. There's going to be a time where they're going to come up (big) for us," Green said.
Against San Jose, the fourth line played the second most of any line, routinely facing San Jose’s second line. The trio has averaged over nine minutes a night in four games.
In Ottawa's win versus San Jose, the fourth line got Ottawa back in the game via great plays by Zetterlund and Foegele to score timely goals while both set up Tyler Kleven’s goal. Foegele adds an element of speed that is sorely lacking in Ottawa’s forward group.
Drake Batherson heater
Batherson has eight goals in as many games.
“He’s known for being a little streaky,” said Green.
“You know when he’s not scoring, he’s in one of those little streaks, you know when he is scoring.”
A bruised forearm is a nice little price to pay for a game-winning goal on Sunday.
Jersey of the season candidate
Ottawa loves back-to-backs
Ottawa is 19-5-4 during weekend back-to-backs under Green. The Senators have two more weekend back-to-backs this season.
