OTTAWA — The Ottawa Senators are two points better at the halfway mark this season than they were last season, but it sure doesn’t feel like it. There’s a much lower score on the vibe-o-meter in the nation’s capital for this version of this Senators team.
At the start of the season, many fans hoped their team wouldn’t just be making the playoffs but inching closer to Stanley Cup contender status. Those lofty ambitions have been quashed for the moment, though you never know what can happen if you get to the dance. Even so, there is some urgency, with the team captain and star Brady Tkachuk now just three playoff runs away from free agency, in 2028.
“We will contend when we are ready to contend,” said general manager Steve Staios.
At the same time as fans’ expectations have been rising, so have opponents'.
“Teams aren't taking us lightly now,” said Staios. “We want to take another step this year."
The Senators remain very much within reach of the playoffs, currently sitting four points short in the musical chairs of teams rotating in and out of wild-card spots.
Ottawa has gotten breakout performances this season from Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson, Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson, but has been frustrated by injuries, a wounded Tkachuk, and holes on the backend and the forward group.
But there is one major reason the Senators are underperforming:
Goaltending.
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“Yes, I think that's pretty clear,” said Staios, about his goaltending and related struggles on the penalty kill. “When we look at it, we watch it, we look at the numbers, that’s reality, and we have faith that both can improve.
“We can talk about goaltending, and, if the goaltenders were in here, they’d be honest and tell you they haven’t played to expectations.”
There is a massive question mark surrounding Linus Ullmark, who is currently on a leave of absence for a personal matter. There is no timeline for his return, but it doesn’t seem imminent.
“We’ll give him the time he needs ... to make sure things are in order,” Staois said after the leave was announced.
Statistically speaking, Ullmark was the worst netminder in the NHL in terms of goals saved above expected, according to Moneypuck.com. In his absence, youngster Leevi Merilainen, who hasn’t been much better than Ullmark, has been thrust into the starter’s net.
Merilainen looked “nervous” in his first start after Ullmark’s departure, according to Senators coach Travis Green. But the Senators’ nerves over goaltending were evident Monday night, when Merliainen was pulled after allowing three goals to the Red Wings and replaced by Hunter Shepard. Shepard and the team’s other goalie, Mads Sogaard, have a combined total of just 35 games of NHL experience. The Senators could explore the goalie trade market but they will be negotiating from a position of weakness with Ullmark out.
To regain a foothold in the Eastern Conference, the Senators will need more kick saves, but also must improve their roster for the now and into the near future. Staios says top prospects Carter Yakemchuk and Logan Hensler are off limits for a win-now trade, although what else would a general manager say? Without their first-round pick this season and few prospects, the Senators have limited avenues to acquire talent. It’s clear they are lacking a top-four right-shot defenceman and a top-six winger, too. Plus, with unprecedented parity in the league and every team vying for a playoff spot, it’s a seller’s market with few players available.
That leaves the Senators in a conundrum that epitomizes their season. Their biggest weaknesses have no clear resolution. They are a good team, and if you look at the analytics, they should be a great team as they routinely out-chance and outshoot teams, sitting seventh in expected goals share, fifth in scoring chances and sixth in shots.
The Senators' flaws hold them back: league-worst goaltending and no certainty in net and few assets to improve the roster. They are sailing toward becoming a mid-Atlantic team; the hope is they can drift into contention waters by season’s end.
Key stats
Record: 20-16-5 (eighth in Atlantic, 21st in NHL)
Goals per game: 3.27 (11th in NHL)
Goals against per game: 3.23. (24th in NHL)
Power play: 24.6 per cent (fifth in NHL)
Penalty kill: 72.9 per cent (31st in NHL)
Best surprise
Shane Pinto’s elevation into an elite NHLer. If you’re familiar with the Senators, you know that whenever Pinto scores or records a point, the Senators' chances of winning go up 12-fold.
Senators When Pinto Scores a Goal:
2025-26: 6-4-0
All-Time: 41-11-3
Senators When Pinto Records a Point:
2025-26: 11-4-2
All-Time: 76-15-9
Courtesy of Sportsnet Stats
This season, there is no difference in outcome but there has been in Pinto’s performances. Pinto is smashing career highs, on pace for 30 goals and 57 points while routinely tasked with the toughest matchups. Despite missing 10 games due to an injury, he will likely surpass his career high of 21 goals and 37 goals by early March.
Pinto always had immense defensive aptitude and should enter the Selke Trophy discussion this season. He ranks 19th in expected goals allowed at five-on-five (minimum 350 minutes played). Also, he ranks 97th out of 770 players this season in wins above replacement, according to Evolving Hockey. In the end, he didn’t make Team USA, but he was definitely in the conversation.
“Pinto should be very proud of himself,” said Green. "If you probably had to sit and ask him last year if he'd be in that conversation (for Team USA), he probably didn't think he would be. So, it says a lot about him and his play and how far he's gone, that he's been in conversation about that.”
The Senators are 15-10-4 with Pinto this season, with many of those games coming without Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot. Meanwhile, they were 5-4-1 without him. He’s gone from being a really good player to arguably one of the Senators’ three or fourth most important players. It’s a testament to Pinto’s growth that he’s been rewarded with a four-year, $30-million contract extension. So far, he looks to be worth every penny.
Biggest disappointment
Where have the saves gone?
It’s a fair hypothetical to ask yourselves: If the Senators had league-average goaltending, would they be atop the Atlantic Division? The Senators have the worst save percentage in the NHL and have the largest discrepancy of any team between goals allowed and expected goals allowed. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Senators have allowed 16 more goals then they should have if they had average goaltending.
Ottawa needs saves … now. The Senators won’t make the playoffs without their backstops saving more pucks. We’ve been here before in Canada's capital: it’s been a goalie wasteland for too long, from Matt Murray to Joonas Korpisalo. The Senators' playoff lives will be resuscitated with more saves.
Big question for the second half
What version of Tkachuk will the Senators get for the balance of the season?
We all saw what the Senators’ captain did at the 4 Nations and in the 2025 playoffs. That version of Tkachuk was a beast.
Three games into this season, he hurt his thumb. When he’s played, he’s produced at close to a point-per-game clip but he hasn't been as noticeable or as fearsome. Is he saving himself for the Olympics? He’s stated that he doesn’t want to re-aggravate his thumb injury in a fight. He skated away from the sucker punch by Logan Stanley the other night waving his bandaged hand.
“I think that's a part of who I am and part of creating room for myself and my teammates,” said Tkachuk about his willingness to fight.
“And now I just got to be smart. People forget that I had surgery, I missed six weeks or so, and the repair went well. But I’m not going to put myself at risk to miss any time for that.
“Obviously, I miss it. I wish I could be fighting.”
Does that drain some of the passion from Tkachuk’s game? Maybe, but we can never live in Tkachuk’s skates.
When Staios was asked about whether Tkachuk has struggled, he replied: “So, I don't think it's fair. I wouldn't put it that way.”
We don’t question Tkachuk’s ability to elevate when it matters. But for the Senators to get to the stage of the season that defines NHL stars — the playoffs — the Senators can’t have a pedestrian Tkachuk. They require their ultimate superstar to be just that.
