Part of the charm of the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the potential for an unlikely upstart to take down a regular-season titan in dramatic fashion. With that in mind, let’s look at all eight first-round matchups — ranked from “hardest to call” to “borderline sure thing” according to the oddsmakers at BetMGM.
Pittsburgh (-115) vs. Philadelphia (-105)
The Battle of Pennsylvania (renewed in the playoffs for the first time since 2018) is a gift to the neutral hockey fan and a source of genuine anxiety for anyone with a rooting interest. Guaranteed acrimony and hostility — and that’s just in the stands! The Flyers won 12 of their last 16 to get here after being nine points out of a playoff spot in March. If you’re looking for a series that could pivot on one out-of-the-blue goaltending performance, this is it.
Dallas (-120) vs. Minnesota (+100)
The second-tightest line on the board at BetMGM — and the series most likely to keep oddsmakers on their toes. The Stars opened as -140 favourites but the line has drifted steadily toward even money as the market has grown more respectful of the Wild. Dallas arrives on a 4-1-0 run, scoring four goals a game, which is either a sign of peaking at the right time or a convenient way to paper over regular-season inconsistencies before the real pressure arrives. Kirill Kaprizov remains one of the most electrifying players in the game, and the Wild’s defensive structure gives them good reason to fancy their chances. The oddsmakers aren’t sure who wins this one. Are you?
Carolina (-175) vs. Ottawa (+145)
Listed at +475 to win the Stanley Cup at BetMGM — second only to Colorado on the entire board — Carolina is everything you look for in a playoff favourite: elite goaltending, suffocating defensive structure, and a system so consistent it tends to impose itself on opponents rather than react to them. (Translation: They’re boring.) The Senators, meanwhile, are one of the better stories of the season, clinching a second straight playoff berth after years in the wilderness — and drawing a brutal reward in the form of the Metropolitan’s runaway winner. Here is what Ottawa needs to do to win this series: play their best hockey of the season, get career-defining goaltending performances, and hope that the hockey gods have had enough of “suffocating defensive structures.”
Las Vegas (-190) vs. Utah (+155)
The Golden Knights are listed at +1000 to win the Stanley Cup at BetMGM, which reflects both their genuine quality and the considerable depth of the Western Conference. John Tortorella’s arrival has been immediately felt: he turned a roster that looked rudderless into a legitimate playoff threat. The Utah Mammoth, in only their second NHL season, are the more improbable story. The reward for clinching their first playoff spot? A date with the Golden Knights, the team that quite literally wrote the manual on rapid expansion success. The books say a Mammoth playoff run is unlikely. The 2017 Golden Knights weren’t supposed to reach the Stanley Cup Final either.
Buffalo (-190) vs. Boston (+155)
Buffalo ending the longest active playoff drought in NHL history — 14 seasons! — is one of the great sports stories of the year. And they did it in style, winning 50 games and finishing first in the Eastern Conference. Not impressed yet? The Sabres are arriving in the playoffs on a hot streak, having closed the regular season scoring almost five goals a game. For its part, Boston is cast in the role of experienced party crasher. Whether they’re capable of crashing this particular party — on the road, against a city that has been waiting a decade and a half for a reason to be insufferable about hockey — is the central question. Sabres fans have earned the right to be as loud as they like.
Edmonton (-220) vs. Anaheim (+180)
Hold up: The Oilers aren’t playing the Kings? What kind of sorcery is this? Instead, Edmonton faces off against the ice-cold Ducks, who come into the playoffs with only two wins in their last 10 games. A dominating Connor McDavid and (one hopes) a recovered Leon Draisaitl against a young, inexperienced Ducks team is a comfortable series for Edmonton on paper. Probably on the ice, too.
Tampa Bay (-230) vs. Montreal (+200)
These teams tied with 106 points in the regular season but according to oddsmakers, that’s where the similarities end. The Lighting are the +500 third choice at BetMGM to win the Stanley Cup. The Habs, meanwhile, stand as +2500 longshots. Sure, the Canadiens have improved steadily all year long — and a playoff environment tends to flatten some of the talent gap between a veteran powerhouse and a hungry, improving club. That said, the gap is real. Tampa Bay is a team with Stanley Cup experience, star power, and a system forged in the fire of consecutive final appearances. Montreal will need to channel some 2021 playoff vibes to advance.
Colorado (-450) vs. Los Angeles (+350)
So, Kings fans, we’ve got bad news and good news. The good news: You don’t have to play and lose to the Oilers for a fifth straight year. Hooray! Pretty great, right? Yeah, you’re going to want to focus on that bit of information for a while because … well, here comes the bad news, and it looks a lot like Nathan MacKinnon. The Avalanche won the Presidents’ Trophy with 119 points. They put up a positive goal differential literally (literally!) twice as big as any team other than Carolina. They swept the Kings 3-0 in the regular-season series, outscoring them 13-5. And just for kicks, how about the fact that the Kings arrive with the worst penalty kill percentage of any playoff team. Does Colorado tend to score on the power play? Yes. Yes, they do. The Avalanche are the +300 Stanley Cup favourites at BetMGM. The Kings are the longest of long shots.
