Systems Analyst: How the Bruins turned a major disadvantage into an OT win

The Boston Bruins' overtime winner in Game 5 will ultimately be remembered as a David Pastrnak moment, and that’s fair. It’s a superstar read of a developing play, a superstar move, and a superstar finish. But this game could’ve gone either way. Buffalo can certainly make the case they should have won this one. 

For a brief flicker of a moment in overtime, it looked like it would. The door was open. 

Pastrnak may have had the big moment, but the events that shaped it centred around two players, Boston’s Marat Khusnutdinov and Buffalo’s Peyton Krebs. 

By the time the big moment came, Krebs was on the verge of a sterling performance. He played the second-most minutes among Sabres forwards (24:28), controlled the puck with regularity, and his line nearly put away the game in overtime. 

But in the end, he’s going to wear the goat horns. That’s playoff overtime hockey, baby. Krebs turned the puck over in a big spot, right where coaches hate it – within five feet of the blue line – and it resulted in a worst-case scenario outcome. 

Let’s go through what happened.

The first note is that on the final play of the game, Krebs is involved in a long shift. By the time the Bruins scored he had been on the ice for 1:22, about double the length of what you’d be looking for in overtime. But if you watch how the shift unfolded, it’s not hard to see how this happened. 

Krebs was only recorded with one giveaway in the game, but he maybe should’ve been hit with another because he actually made a similar mistake to the nuclear one earlier on the same shift. 

First, he receives a pass in the neutral zone with room to skate when there's 11:43 to go in the period.

Krebs takes it across the blue line and clearly should get the puck in deep. But he doesn’t do that. He has it here…

...but his chip-in gets knocked down. However, thanks to the desperate work of his linemates, the puck stays in the zone. You’d think this would’ve been an “oh crap” moment for the next time, but alas.

The Sabres battle and get it back.

OK, so this is where we are: The Sabres stay on offence, and this leads to the type of shift that will burn out your legs. Krebs just had to sprint up the ice to stay ahead of a back-checker, and now -- at the end of the above gif -- he has the puck again. Krebs has to push to keep it safe and away from Boston's defenders, before getting Rock Bottomed by Hampus Lindholm in the corner. That takes a lot out of a guy.

This is Krebs with the puck to start.

This leads to a long possession where the Sabres very nearly score. 

Now we’re a minute into the shift and everyone is dying on both sides, but the Bruins are particularly toast because they have to deal with the long change and don't have the puck. Boston manages to chop it out, but they get “three-quarter iced” which means they don’t get it far enough down for a clean change and that puts them in a bad spot. They’re going to sprint to the bench and dive in to try and get a few bodies off.

The Sabres are going to change too, but Krebs makes a good read. His defenceman, Mattias Samuelsson, is going to need an outlet so Krebs goes to post-up for a stretch pass.

Now remember, at this point Krebs is gassed but if he can just get this puck in deep so Samuelsson doesn’t have to ice it, he can then get off and it’d be a great play for all involved because the Sabres would be able to forecheck against some tired defenders.

Check out the Bruins' bench as Samuelsson turns it back up ice. Panic.

Here you can see Khusnutdinov stepping on the ice to start his shift, and Pastrnak dangling a leg over the boards, waiting for his change to make it all the way to the bench. 

The Bruins are in MAJOR trouble here. The Sabres have possession and numbers up ice.

Look at Ryan McLeod. Boston's Andrew Peeke is panicked, sprinting on to the ice so frantically that he’s not yet got his top hand to the top of his stick by the time we hit our critical frame. McLeod is in. (He did have to hold to stay onside, so maybe Peeke would’ve caught him, but we know McLeod can fly.)

But the other thing I want you to notice in this next frame is Khusnutdinov’s stick. Ooo, coaches love this: he’s pursuing the puck carrier and leading with his stick on the ice, on the puck. You can still throw a hit with your stick in a good spot.

Fun fact about Khusnutdinov: he has no points in this series, not a goal or an assist. But coaches want to know “what can you do when you aren’t providing offence?” Do you have a 'B' game?

Khusnutdinov averaged 14:30 of ice time during the regular season, and Tuesday night he played 21:30. Why? Well, during the regular season he threw 77 hits in 42 games played. In Game 5 he threw five hits, a total he’s only surpassed once in his NHL career -- and that was in Game 4, when he threw seven. Khusnutdinov's 19 hits are second on the Bruins in the playoffs, after finishing 14^th on the team in the regular season. Maybe he’s not piling up points, but I’m guessing his coach likes that. (I also think there’s a case that he should have gotten an assist on the OT winner, but that’s not what we’re discussing here today.)

As you can see, the puck hits Khusnutdinov’s stick in the frame below, creating a turnover back to the Bruins, and he continues on into the body of where Krebs was going, were he moving with any speed.

Now, does Krebs turn it over because he thinks he might get hit? I don’t think that’s an irrelevant factor here by any means.

But typically, Krebs hasn’t been afraid of contact. He took the third-most hits on the Sabres this season, and he also rarely gave the puck away. During the regular season he was 15^th on the team in giveaways per 60, and in the playoffs, he’s not even in the “top” 10 in giveaways for the team. He normally takes pretty good care of the puck.

So here I see a player who is at the end of a shift and tired. He just doesn’t have the mental clarity or physical energy to make the right tiny adjustments to find a passing lane. I see a good stick by a defender, and some luck involved in the bounce. I see a puck that drifts right to Lindholm as Jack Quinn skates by (which is fine, he thinks the puck may go in deep), and just as Pastrnak would be getting on the ice.

Suddenly, it’s the Sabres who are in trouble.

It’s kinda like this old meme:

And now, from here, it’s just a good pass and a forward who stays onside by a hair. You can see in the frame below the puck in the zone before the skate.

All Samuelsson can do is try and stop Pastrnak from cutting across the net, which goalie Alex Lyon also expects...

...until Pasta hits them with the smoke-bomb/cloud-of-snow and cuts it back.

So what was probably an inch from being a Sabres breakaway for McLeod turned into a Pastrnak break about three seconds later, which is playoff overtime hockey in a nutshell.

The Sabres had the Bruins on the mat, before the Bruins came back to life like The Undertaker.