On Sunday, the Toronto Maple Leafs kicked off their 10-day training camp that’ll thrust them head-long into their first game – a regular season one, strangely enough – against the Montreal Canadiens. They didn’t exactly wade gently into the news-making pool either, cannonballing off the roof of the Ford Performance Centre by revealing that the new winger playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner would be … Joe Thornton?
Like many, I have thoughts. Like many, I have many thoughts, actually. Let’s get to some of those, starting with a bit of a big picture overview before we dial in on specifics.
This is a very good Leafs team, with no real equal in their division. Anything less than winning the North will be a disappointment. (…Ahem, the “Scotia North Division,” sorry.)
It’s impossible to know who exactly is going to be what at the roster’s fringes, and how all the parts will mesh together given the sheer volume of new bodies. As a refresher, the list of relevant new guys looks something like Wayne Simmonds, Jimmy Vesey, Joe Thornton, Travis Boyd, T.J. Brodie, Zach Bogosian, Mikko Lehtonen, Alexander Barabanov, and Joey Anderson.
Yet I feel confident in calling this team “very good” and that they have “no real equal in the division” because the franchise tentpoles are in place (more on that in a sec), meaning that most of the above names that aren’t Brodie will be supplemental players, not pivotal ones. And while I’m not sure “who exactly is going to be what,” I’m confident there’s enough quality in their supporting group that at least a few players will provide plus-value in those minutes.
The aforementioned tentpoles though, those are what sets this Leafs team apart in the North. We’re talking absolute prime Auston Matthews (40 goals isn’t out of the question in 56 games), Mitch Marner and William Nylander, with John Tavares still expected to play like he’s within his. Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin are legitimately high quality defenders, and Brodie is the same. Frederik Andersen is coming off the worst year of his career in terms of save percentage … posting a number that was near league average, and he has contract incentive. Their next tier of returning guys (Zach Hyman, Ilya Mikheyev, Alexander Kerfoot, Travis Dermott, Justin Holl) are established quality as well.
I don’t see any other Canadian group with as much top-end talent, and Toronto is stable beyond that.
Now, to the specifics.
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In trying to set up Joe Thornton to succeed, are they setting him up to fail?
I understand that the Leafs want to put Thornton in a position where he can be his best. They want him to get O-zone starts and to play him with other high-IQ players with offensive bents.
But Thornton’s coming to a new city to play for a new team under a new coach with new linemates, and it’s possible there’s going to be some adjustment time needed for him, as there would be for anyone in that situation. In a short season like this, though, there’s little time to let players work through issues while seeking chemistry. If it doesn’t work right away for the reasons mentioned, the Leafs will likely have to move on and swap someone else in, which would make it look like Joe isn’t living up to expectations, and the media circus starts.
This feels like the opposite of “under promise and over-deliver.” I don’t know if it’s too much too soon, but I know it’s a lot, soon.
Now, part of me did have this thought: it’s possible Joe was promised a lot to come to Toronto in terms of opportunity. Maybe putting him there right away is a win-win for the team. Either it takes and yay, or it doesn’t, and he can’t say he wasn’t afforded the opportunity.
Attempts at having a defensive line seem very real, which appears to be shaping everything else.
This is likely relevant to Thornton’s position in the lineup. A deficiency the Leafs do have is “who plays forward when you need that big defensive stop?” They added a lot of good players at value prices this off-season, but like Jumbo, Jimmy Vesey isn’t exactly a shutdown defender.
So what we see here is the Leafs trying to build a defensive trio – that being Mikheyev, Kerfoot, and Hyman – and probably making their other lines a little less deadly as a result.
Now that’s not a critique, exactly. They have offence to burn in their top six, and taking away from there to add somewhere they more urgently need help might make sense.
Provided you think Kerfoot is the guy you want going over the boards at centre to stop Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Elias Pettersson and the division’s other quality centers.
Nick Robertson will again play his way on to this team by the playoffs.
The biggest force working against Robertson – currently in the Leafs’ second group, the “non-NHL” one – is that they already excel in the same area he offers the most help. “This Leafs team has been missing a smaller offensive-minded goal scorer,” said zero people after the team was eliminated from playoffs the past few years.
But at some point a player is too good to not have in your lineup, and Robertson seems like the committed-type willing to do whatever it takes to at least dress, and when that happens, it’s only a matter of time before he renders himself too useful to exclude.
It’s funny, I know his ability to score is his greatest strength and that’s what’s tantalizing to the team, but I think it’s his work ethic that gets him into the mix this season rather than farther down the road. It’s a compliment when I say the kid is a capital-letters Hockey Player.
Group 2 @MapleLeafs practice lines and defensive pairings for January 4:
Robertson−Engvall−Anderson
Petan−Boyd−Brazeau
Agostino−Brooks−Sabourin
Gaudet−ChartierMarincin−Liljegren
Rosen−Hollowell
KivihalmeDell
Hutchinson#LeafsForever— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) January 4, 2021
The D core is going to be a strength
I know that’s a weird thing to say about the Toronto Maple Leafs, but as of right now, the seventh and eight D-men are highly touted prospect Rasmus Sandin and Travis Dermott, who has over 150 NHL games under his belt and just turned 24 a couple weeks back. Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie offer that top-end quality they’ve been missing, and names like Justin Holl, Zach Bogosian and Mikko Lehtonen are massive upgrades on what the team has had in the 4-5-6 spots over the past few years.
If you look around the North, the Calgary Flames probably have the best D-corps. After that I’m not sure there’s a group you can clearly identify as better than the one the Leafs have.
Coolbet has Auston Matthews as the Rocket Richard Trophy favourite ahead of Alex Ovechkin, and so they should
Matthews was a goal shy of getting his name on the Richard Trophy last season, and this season the two players who accomplished that feat have some disadvantages. Ovechkin is another year older, and let’s face it, Father Time is undefeated. Meantime, David Pastrnak won’t be in the lineup opening night for the Bruins, who are also in a tougher division (he had his hip repaired in September).
Yes the North Division is loaded with quality goaltenders, but we just discussed the different defence corps in the group. Most aren’t that strong, and the chances are going to be there. At some point there’s only so much goalies can do.
The Leafs are going to accrue cap space and add at the deadline (if they stay healthy)
In simple terms, every dollar you’re under the cap on any given day is a dollar more you can spend down the road within a season. The Leafs aren’t in LTIR this year, so they can take advantage of this. There are taxi squads, too, so with paper transactions you can technically roll out rosters of 20 or 21 guys each day, maximizing how far under the cap you can be. In sum, a healthy Leafs team could have up to $5 million to spend on a player at this year’s trade deadline.
Brandon Pridham – someone who’s worked on NHL CBAs in the past from the league side – is familiar with how to take advantage of opportunities like these. Barring numerous injuries that the Leafs can’t bury on LTIR, I expect this to happen.
If the Leafs’ goaltending is shaky enough that it’s costing them games early, they can’t afford to see the experiment through
A major Freddy Andersen critique is that he’s inconsistent. He has unbelievably good months, and months in the other direction. If given enough time, those average out to a pretty darn good goaltender. Unfortunately, it’s a shortened season where each month represents about 25 per cent of the schedule, and there are questions around his future. There won’t be time to let any real rough stretches “even out.” They’re going to have to react early if things look off.
If Andersen starts rough, I bet Jack Campbell gets a good number of games early so they can gauge their trust in him, and then the team will be left with real questions to answer (followed by moves to make).
They can’t wait on things to “even out” anywhere, because this is a legitimate Stanley Cup shot for the Leafs
Some desperate Leafs fan wished on a monkey paw and turfed all their excuses this year. Poof, Boston and Tampa are out of the Leafs division. All their young talents are signed and in camp to start the year. They have vets, they added a quality D-man. The coach and the GM are aligned. They’re in a division light on defence with seven teams — four of which make the playoffs.
And for once, they’re the favourite.
If this team stays healthy, the league semifinals aren’t just realistic, they’re an expectation. What a strange time for all sports fans, but a particularly odd one for fans in Toronto.
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