Three keys to victory for Canadiens in Round 2 against Sabres

BUFFALO — Here we go again. Another series between two teams that finished neck and neck in the standings and split games against each other during the regular season.

What was it, wins for each team in each building? 13 goals apiece in the end?

I just watched this movie, and it was epic!

Not that Buffalo-Montreal will follow the same exact script as the one that just unfolded between the Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning. The inference it would be similar because of results the Canadiens and Lightning produced against each other in the regular season doesn’t really hold, especially given that late-season meetings between Montreal and Tampa set the tone for their historically tight Round 1 bout and the Canadiens and Sabres last played each other in January.

If you watched how everything went for both teams before and after their last meeting in Montreal, you’d know neither of them fully resemble the earlier version of themselves. The Canadiens were outscoring their problems back then, while the Sabres were scoring so much you’d have never known they had problems to begin with. And both teams have since developed playoff styles to make it to this point.

Yes, firewagon hockey got this Buffalo team to 109 points and a first playoff berth since Barack Obama was halfway through his first term as POTUS. But even if they scored 21 goals in their six games against the Boston Bruins, they locked down their series win with much tighter defence and much better goaltending than they got in four games against the Canadiens this season.

The Canadiens, who ripped home just four fewer goals (279) than the Sabres — and the seventh most in the league — to finish with 106 points, were stalwart in both those departments against the Lightning.

This series won’t be exactly like that one, but here’s hoping it’s just as epic.

Here are three ways we think the Canadiens can win it.

With goals from their top players

Boston got some from David Pastrnak (3), Morgan Geekie (2), Elias Lindholm (2) and Pavel Zacha (1). Actually, those guys accounted for eight of 12 of the goals the Bruins got in six games, which is a whole lot more than what the Canadiens got out of Nick Suzuki (1), Cole Caufield (1), Ivan Demidov (0) and Juraj Slafkovsky (0) in the last six of their games against the Lightning.

Granted, Slafkovsky scored a hat trick in Game 1.

But I digress.

Credit Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak and a mix of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov for throwing a blanket over the Canadiens’ top guns in Round 1.

While the Sabres have some excellent two-way players — Alex Tuch the best of them — and a far more versatile blue line than the Lightning, they don’t quite have the same defensive pedigree as those Lightning checkers.

Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky and Demidov must take advantage of that. Especially since Buffalo’s depth players match up better against Montreal’s depth players than the Lightning's did.

Things could play out quite evenly in the bottom six over this series.

But if the Canadiens are going to win, they’ll need their best players doing what they weren’t able to do against the Lightning — and doing more than Buffalo’s top guns.

Health will be a determinant

Because it always is.

Remarkably, after a war of a series that went the distance against the Lightning, the Canadiens not only escaped relatively unscathed but gained an important player by the seventh game.

Noah Dobson’s return, which went swimmingly well after three weeks sidelined by an injury to his left hand, bolsters the depth and confidence of a team that rode depth and confidence past the Lightning.

Meanwhile, the Sabres are hoping to get Sam Carrick back at some point after losing the depth centre in the final game of March.

Carrick, who hurt his left arm, was expected to miss all of Round 2. But on Monday the Sabres announced he’d progressed in his recovery better than expected, and on Tuesday he was back at practice in a non-contact jersey at KeyBank Arena.

If he can play at some point, that could help a great deal. Because the Sabres won just 43.8 per cent of their draws in Round 1 (15^th out of 16 teams in the playoffs) while the Canadiens won 55.6 per cent of theirs (third-best), and Carrick’s been ripping them back at close to 55 per cent through the last two seasons.

Noah Ostlund, who scored a goal and an assist in a Game 1 win over the Bruins before getting hurt during his fourth shift of Game 3, isn’t a face-off specialist. But he is a very versatile player who’s not expected to be available for any games against Montreal.

It’s a more significant blow to the Sabres than his 11 goals and 27 points in 60 regular-season games would lead one to believe.

“He’s a really smart player, and he’s only getting started at 22,” said a Western Conference scout we touched base with who’s had multiple viewings of Ostlund this season.

Another said: “I haven’t seen enough of him, but really impressed with what I have seen. I know a few teams that really wanted him (in the first round of the 2022 Draft), and I can see why. He’s really dynamic, he can make great plays, and he’s an intense player.”

Translation: Ostlund will be missed, even if the Sabres have good depth in his absence.

It’ll come down to goaltending

Two goalies enter this series after having toppled Vezina finalists, only one can emerge victorious.

The Canadiens are confident Jakub Dobes can carry them through, and they should be considering he’s led all NHL goaltenders in goals saved above expected over the last two months.

Meanwhile, Alex Lyon, who watched Game 1 against the Bruins, came in for the Sabres over the next five and posted a 4.6 GSAE to Dobes’ 4.4 through seven games against Tampa. He outdueled Jeremy Swayman, which was as impressive as Dobes taking down Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The Canadiens’ 24-year-old rookie was great against Tampa, and he has the right mindset for this challenge against Buffalo. He told Sportsnet’s Kyle Bukauskas after Sunday's series-clincher that every game for him is like Game 7, and that resonated.

Dobes is a battler. He fought for his crease for most the season, and he fights in his crease every night for his teammates too.

“The guys helped me out and bailed me out, and I try to do the same,” Dobes said. “Sometimes we don’t play good, sometimes I don’t play good, and they always have my back and I always have theirs. That’s the mentality.”

If he can keep tapping into it, he gives the Canadiens a chance to win any game — including ones like Game 7, where they were far from their best.

“Dobes kind of stole the game,” coach Martin St. Louis said.

The Canadiens can’t force Dobes to steal the series.

But if he’s as good as he’s been, he will play huge role in them winning it.