As midnight approached on Monday, the Ottawa Senators were left to process their gut-punching double-overtime loss and 0-2 series deficit against the Carolina Hurricanes.
This is what the Hurricanes do to their playoff opponents; Carolina has gone up 2-0 in each of its past six first-round series, a new NHL record. (Three of the previous five series, all of which the Hurricanes won, required at least six games.)
The Senators, however, are not deterred by their situation as they head home for Game 3 on Thursday.
“We know we can beat this team,” Senators forward Dylan Cozens told reporters.
Here is how Ottawa can dig itself out of its 0-2 hole:
Make good on scoring chances
No one can say that the Senators have lacked offensive opportunities in this series. Ottawa has generated 3.7 expected goals per 60 minutes through two games, which trails only the Buffalo Sabres (3.81) in the early part of the playoffs. (Carolina finished fifth during the regular season with 2.77 expected goals against per 60 minutes.)
But the Senators have left a staggering 7.5 goals on the table based on their shot quality. Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen deserves some credit for that. He has stopped all 21 inner-slot shots he has faced. Ottawa, however, has also not capitalized on its scoring chances. The team has hit the net on just 49.1 per cent of its chances (28/57). In the regular season, the Senators led the league in chance-on-net rate at 61.2 per cent. (They have missed 17 of their 57 chances against the Hurricanes, and another 12 have been blocked.)
Although Andersen has been sensational, he is also human. Cozens’ goal Monday was not a high-danger shot. If the Senators can keep up the pressure on Andersen and not waste Grade-A opportunities, then they can climb back into the series.
“The confidence and the belief is still the highest it could possibly get,” said Senators captain Brady Tkachuk, who has scored 1.9 goals below expected after failing to convert any of his team-high eight chances in the series. “We’ve shown we can hang in there. Of course, we haven’t liked both the results, but the confidence and the belief that I have in my teammates and we have each in other is the highest it’s ever been.”
Shut down Logan Stankoven
Carolina’s second forward line of Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake has given Ottawa fits. The Hurricanes have outscored the Senators 2-0 and generated 65.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five when that line has been on the ice. (That does not include Stankoven’s power-play goal in Game 2, which was assisted by Hall and Blake.)
Senators coach Travis Green has counted on shutdown forwards Michael Amadio and Shane Pinto to neutralize Stankoven’s line. After two games, the Hurricanes have outscored the Senators 1-0 and out-chanced them 6-2 in that five-on-five matchup. Shot attempts are 14-7 in favour of Carolina. Green should continue relying on Amadio and Pinto against Stankoven’s line with the benefit of last change for the next two games.
Stankoven’s first goal of the series came as the result of Senators defenceman Jordan Spence’s giveaway from behind his own net. The Hurricanes, who have scored twice within 10 seconds of a Senators turnover in the series, were the top team in the league in that category during the regular season with 114 turnover goals. (Ottawa, for its part, has also scored two turnover goals in the series.)
Jake Sanderson handles the pressure
On Tuesday, Green did not have an update on defenceman Artem Zub, who missed Game 2 after suffering an injury in Game 1. The Senators are also without defenceman Tyler Kleven, who has not played since April 2.
That means top defenceman Jake Sanderson has had even more on his plate. He played 43:06 on Monday, the third-highest single-game total in franchise history behind defencemen Zdeno Chara (44:19) and Wade Redden (44:04). Fellow defenceman Thomas Chabot was not far behind Sanderson on Monday with 40:50 of ice time.
Sanderson has not been on the ice for a goal against at five-on-five in the series and had two assists Monday, but the Senators have generated only 34.6 per cent of the expected goals during his minutes. Perhaps as a result of the heavier workload, Sanderson’s turnover rate in all situations has shot up from 10.4 per cent in the regular season to 17.4 per cent in the playoffs. It has been most apparent in the offensive zone, where Sanderson’s turnover rate has ballooned to 36.5 per cent, compared to 12.7 per cent in the regular season.
Carolina’s relentlessness makes life difficult for defencemen, who do not have much time to make decisions with the puck. Sanderson’s performance will have a major influence on the rest of the series.
All stats via Sportlogiq
