If you were looking to do a meaningful analysis on Game 1 there was about 10 minutes of hockey worth digging into, all of it right from the initial drop of the puck. I wrote about how the Leafs looked nervous and forced panic plays rather than showing poise, which ended up biting them. Then it was a special teams fest, and then it was garbage time for a period with the score well out of reach.
Game 2 didn’t offer a full 60 either, as the Leafs had their way with Tampa for about 30 minutes, the game was out of hand shortly thereafter, and the third period was once again garbage time.
But.
But there was one stretch of play after the Leafs' early second-period dominance where the Lightning scored, and the game changed drastically. The air got sucked out of the building, the tone changed, and methinks some buttcheeks tightened up in the seats outside the glass.
For four minutes and 16 seconds, we got a glimpse into an area of playoff hockey that hasn’t mattered yet this series for the Leafs, but is going to be a big deal at some point: the Leafs are going to have to get comfortable when the game gets uncomfortable.
You’re going to get scored on, you’re going to lead by one late, or be tied, or give up a few goals in a clump on the road where it feels like the opposing building is going to collapse on top you. And how you react in those moments will define whether you survive and win, or not.
After taking an unsuspected right hook from the Bolts in Game 2, which led to a little staggering, a few veterans helped them regain their legs, which was a good sign.
I’ll take you through the game and better explain what I saw, to speculate on where this series is going.
I mentioned there was 10 minutes in Game 1 and 30 of Game 2 we can evaluate, but I’ll even add a qualifier there. There are no playoff routs without one side playing outright awful, and you can’t anticipate your opponent doing that very often, given they’re at least good enough to be in the playoffs.
We haven’t seen both teams play well at the same time yet.
The Leafs stunk out loud in Game 1, and boy howdy, were the Lightning bad in Game 2. There was a stretch of eight minutes at the start of the second period where the Leafs owned Tampa Bay to a degree we rarely see in the NHL these days, and as great as the Leafs were in their pursuit of the puck, I was curious by the mistakes Tampa kept making.
Watch Steven Stamkos give this away inside his blue line, before failing to clear it by shooting it directly into a Leafs forward:
That’s not Cup-winning hockey, that’s careless.
The Leafs deserve credit for their pursuit of the puck, but these are good players on Tampa Bay. Like here’s Alex Killorn giving it right back to the Leafs, then Mikhail Sergachev putting it on Ryan O’Reilly’s tape on an ill-advised … D-to-D attempt, I guess?
Again there’s more good puck pursuit, but below you can see Anthony Cirelli not getting it out on the wall, and Sergachev failing to make plays.
You can’t blame the absence of Victor Hedman for their other good players looking so average.
The point here is that you aren’t going to get this version of Tampa Bay very often, so it’s great the Leafs took advantage of it, but there’s no reason to think this type of smothering dominance can continue game in and game out. The Leafs have to prepare to handle better in the games ahead.
What happens whenever the Leafs start to dominate the run of play like that, somewhat commonly, is it becomes “point night” in their minds. Or they simply forget about playing a patient, two-way game, wanting to be the line to get the next goal. (This isn’t just a Leafs thing, I should note.)
On the goal they give up against, they’re in totally fine spots. In fact, as you can see in the screenshot below, it’s basically a 2-on-2 where Nylander is the next player back given his speed, and he could even pivot backwards and play this as a 3-on-3.
But as you can see in the GIF, he literally never looks left once, focusing on the puck the entire time despite his teammate playing the rush very capably. He should just pivot, hold the middle, and get the next player in the next wave (Ian Cole).
But the siren song of that puck, I tell ya.
So with Leafs fans – and dare I say it the Leafs – fairly conditioned to expect the worst, there was a drastic shift for a moment.
Tampa Bay wins the next draw, and suddenly the Leafs can’t make a play. The building has “Oh no, here we go again” energy.
Jake McCabe makes a poor puck play:
Zach Aston-Reese, McCabe, T.J. Brodie, David Kampf, nobody can find a way to release the pressure with multiple touches.
And when they finally do get it with time and space to start over again, they hand it right back.
Now Tampa’s rolling, and there’s a different feeling in the air.
That’s playoff hockey, right then, right there.
How do you hang in there against momentum? How do you continue to play the game to your strengths, rather than panicking, and have success.
There’s a small moment that becomes a turning point for me personally. The last GIF shows about 10:10 on the clock.
About 20 seconds later, after a line change, some Leafs vets come on the ice and make crucial plays. Morgan Rielly gets it up ice, but more than anything, John Tavares makes two cut-backs and hangs on to the puck. He doesn’t smash a dump-in, or try to beat the D one-on-one. It allows his teammates time to get involved, Rielly skates in on the offence, and suddenly after a tense shift in the Leafs end, they have a shift in TB’s end.
It was a small dose of composure.
It really became a veteran night, as Tavares, Rielly, and O’Reilly kept their feet moving and created three damn near identical chances just as the Lightning were building momentum and trying to get back into the game.
Matthew Knies has a great forecheck while Ryan O’Reilly never stops skating as an excellent F3 on the forecheck, and he gets a chance on his backhand.
The next shift Tavares spins off his check and keeps his feet moving and gets a chance on his backhand:
And soon after that, he gets to the right area to once again get a chance on his backhand.
There are more moments than the ones I clipped of the Leafs making some poor plays in their defensive zone during this tight window of hockey, where things could have gone south in Game 2. The Lightning had life, if only for a brief minute, but the Leafs rode it out, and it all started calming down when their veterans hung on to pucks and made plays despite the distinctly different vibe in the building.
When the Lightning don’t have Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak, they undeniably don’t have the better group of 18 skaters in the series. But it’s a best of 5 now, and they do have a ton of experience and savvy and confidence in knowing how to win when the game gets uncomfortable. That’s where you expect their experience to shine through. They did it to the Leafs last year in Game 6 with their backs against the wall and trailing, they did it in Game 7 without Brayden Point.
Sergachev and Cirelli and Stamkos won’t make as many mistakes as they made in Game 2 again.
And so that’ll be the challenge for Toronto this time around – to continue to play that composed and patient hockey with the puck when the fire gets hot. If you live on cutbacks and slip passes and looking to the next wave of teammates underneath in the neutral zone, you better not forget that when your opponent gets rolling.
It’s easier said than done when the moments loom large, but what they showed in Game 2 was an encouraging sign that they’ve got the ability to handle it.
