A strange feeling has blanketed the city of Buffalo — not unlike lake-effect snow during a harsh Western New York winter.
It is a feeling of possibility. The Sabres, who have won 10 of 11 (10-1-0) since the Olympic break and 31 of 39 (31-6-2) since early December, are well on their way to making the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
The team’s 14-season playoff drought is the longest in NHL history, as well as the second-longest active drought across the four major North American professional sports leagues behind the NFL’s New York Jets (15).
“They believe that this is working now, and the way they play, there’s great chemistry in the group, and they’re having fun,” Sabres general manager Jarmo Kekalainen told NHL.com. “I think that’s the biggest ingredient. Confidence is a wonderful thing on an individual level and then collectively. When you have different individuals having success and they’re having fun together, I think things can seem a lot of fun and sometimes even easy when it never is easy.”
Although the Sabres certainly have made it look easy over the past few months, what could possibly trip them up down the stretch?
Can the Sabres’ goaltending hold up?
On March 8, the Sabres defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning in what could be considered the game of the year. Buffalo won 8-7 after leading 4-1 and trailing 6-4 and 7-5.
That game demonstrated the Sabres’ strengths and potential weaknesses. The Sabres have had no issues filling the net, ranking second in the league with 3.77 goals per game since Dec. 9. On the other end, however, the gap between the Sabres’ actual and expected performances is wide.
Buffalo leads the league in actual goals-against per game (2.49) but is 18th in expected goals-against per game (3.19) in all situations over that span. At five-on-five, the Sabres have scored 58.9 per cent of the goals despite generating just 50.2 per cent of the expected goals.
Alex Lyon has been one of the league’s best stories this season. The 33-year-old journeyman goaltender has recorded a quality-start rate of 80 per cent (24-of-30), second only to Vezina Trophy candidate Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders (83.3 per cent), and eight steals – which occur when a goaltender’s goals saved above expected is greater than the final score differential.
Lyon’s 23.5 GSAE since Dec. 9 are third most, trailing only Sorokin (31.7) and Detroit’s John Gibson (25.5). Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has stepped up for the Sabres as well, preventing 18.6 goals above expected within that timeframe (ninth).
“It’s just the growth we have had this season that comes with winning,” Luukkonen told reporters after shutting out the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday. “I feel like we’ve been throwing away so many games (in other seasons) in similar situations where we kind of do something stupid. And even personally for me, it’s just kind of finding the confidence and calmness to play in these situations.”
If Lyon and Luukkonen falter at any point, however, the Sabres could be in trouble.
A predictable power play
Last week, forward Tage Thompson reared back and unleashed five one-timer attempts during a Sabres power play — four of which clocked in at over 90 m.p.h. None of them entered the net, though.
Buffalo’s power play ranks 17th for the season (20.5 per cent) and 16th since Dec. 9 (21.6 per cent). But from a shot-quality standpoint, the Sabres are 30th since Dec. 9 with 0.21 expected goals per two minutes on the power play.
Thompson and captain Rasmus Dahlin are the team’s primary options, accounting for almost 40 per cent of the Sabres’ power-play shot attempts over the past three months. And close to 70 per cent of Thompson and Dahlin’s combined attempts over that span have come from outside the slot.
A more diversified attack on the power play would benefit the Sabres. Forward Josh Doan leads the team with seven power-play goals since Dec. 9, five of which have come from the inner slot. Meanwhile, Thompson and Dahlin have combined for five.
