What changes will Team USA make to its roster for the Olympics?

If you missed it, NBC released a commercial in the US promoting the men’s Olympic hockey tournament in just under two months, which struck a chord with viewers. 

In Canada.

I should note again that it struck a chord with viewers, in Canada.

Not because the ad is weirdly grafted together with Jon Hamm in some other location from the NHL players he’s supposedly talking to, but because of the ad's focus. Which is, of course, the spoken "biggest prize of all" for the American team: “Canadian tears.” 

Which is great! And fun. And funny and great. 

But the response in our homeland has been to take one of Hamm’s own lines from Mad Men, and to say “I don’t think about you at all.” In a few conversations about it, I hear that Canadians are just focused on winning gold, regardless of what the Americans happen to be up to, but that’s not exaaactly true either, is it?

There was such a thirst for American blood to start the 4 Nations Face-Off that the Canadian players lined up to take a swing. In the midst of some cross-border strife we booed their anthem, the players battled like hell, and the final game went to overtime before we eked it out. It was exhausting to root for, let alone to play. 

And so the Olympics will be like going to a party that your ex of many years happens to be at, and claiming that you don’t care they’re there. 

We’d take gold over beating the USA, of course, but they’re not just a better Switzerland here. It is something bigger. 

With that in mind, I’ve been pouring over the US Olympic roster options and guessing what they plan to go with this time around. I wrote my assessment of the Canadian roster a few weeks back, and it already feels outdated. I’ll be updating that soon. But to better assess Canada, it’s worth leaning into a line from Sun Tzu’s The Art of War: "Know thy enemy and know thyself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated". 

Time to Know Thy Enemy. 

USA FORWARDS

Here is who they brought to the 4 Nations:

At the Olympics, teams can take 14 forwards, rather than 13. 

What changes will they make? Well, I think it’s time for them to prune some of the older players they’ve had who’ve been really good for a long time. This is not because these players aren't good anymore, but more a result of some younger guys just being better. It’s also based on rooting against them, and knowing who I’d fear most.

I’ve got it as:

Out: Brock Nelson, Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider

In: Jason Robertson, Matthew Knies, Cole Caufield, Cutter Gauthier

At this point, not taking Jason Robertson would be borderline offensive. He’s one of the league’s most effective point-getters, and you may have noticed they could’ve used an extra goal at the 4 Nations. At some point a guy produces at such a clip that you’ve just gotta have his skill on the roster for when you need offence. As much as you're worried about penalty-killing or whatever else, the time when you just need a goal shall too arise.

Now, Matthew Knies is on there ahead of some other names (Tage Thompson, Alex DeBrincat, Clayton Keller) for a couple reasons, starting with his pure forcefulness. When Knies is motivated, as he will be at the Olympics, he’s one of the few guys who can bowl over opponents like they’re children, then handle the puck in traffic like he’s some tiny skill guy. He also plays in all situations, so you could play him on the fourth line, have him forecheck and PK, and have a guy who’s better than a point per game. He’s a bull and just getting better.

If you’re rooting for Canada, Cole Caufield feels like a nightmare in wait. You’re begging the US to leave him off the team. He’s got massive confidence, loves the biggest moments, and it feels like he shoots everything in the net. Caufield is a no-brainer “yes” for me if I’m building that team. 

Now, Cutter Gauthier may raise some eyebrows and have people wondering how you could take him over teammate Chris Kreider, who was on the 4 Nations team. They both play left wing, Gauthier has 13 more points, gets more ice time, is third in the league in shots, and has basically put up massive numbers everywhere he’s played. He’s 6-foot-2, 205 pounds and full of swagger. As a 14^th forward, he could get in a game or two and make the difference. 

USA DEFENCEMEN

As is the case with the forwards, you can take one extra defenceman to the Olympics than you could to the 4 Nations.

We can add one for free, and that’s Quinn Hughes, the league’s second best defenceman who missed the 4 Nations with an injury. He was one of the first six named to this roster.

In terms of any changes, your options to add would be: Lane Hutson, Seth Jones, Jackson LaCombe, Luke Hughes, John Carlson, Brett Pesce. 

We know Guerin loves Brock Faber, and most of the other guys are unimpeachable. Werenski is the league’s third best defenceman in my opinion, Slavin the best defender (who was so good at the 4 Nations), Sanderson might win a Norris one day, and McAvoy was one of the first six already named to the team. So that leaves Fox and Hanifin. 

Do you like any of the guys on the outside more than the ones on the inside? 

Here's where you're going to have some tough conversations. Don’t forget, the US doesn’t need to change much, they were right there (and they might argue they were better overall) at the 4 Nations.

That said, I think they’ve gotta get Jackson LaCombe in there, which suddenly leaves them with too many left shots. I’ve got him right there with Noah Hanifin, but for me LaCombe is a star in the making who you just have to have there. Hanifin’s been good and steady, but I like LaCombe’s ceiling more, so that’s my first change.

The other one might come as a bit of a shock – a bit of a “what have you done for me lately” – but I’ve got Seth Jones in over Adam Fox. 

Fox is an elite offensive defenceman, but the Americans have that in spades (Quinn Hughes will run the power play), and Fox looked a little slow, a little unsure at the 4 Nations. He’s also hurt, and you’re not exactly sure how he’ll look when he returns. Jones, in the Cup Final, showed he can be the type of right shot defenceman teams can lean on in the biggest moments. 

So I’ll say:

OUT: Noah Hanifin, Adam Fox

IN: Jackson LaCombe, Seth Jones

USA GOALIES

Jeremy Swayman was in the trio at the 4 Nations, and I’m not sure I see any reason to change that. He’s been excellent this season, back to what we all believed him to be after a bad post-contract-signing season (those happen!), and a big reason for Boston’s resurgence. 

The other arguments are for Thatcher Demko, who if healthy, might be a good choice (but can you bet on that?), and Spencer Knight. The latter has come on this year, and the biggest knock against him is simply his short run of having an NHL starter workload. He’s handled it admirably, but I might be more inclined to take someone with more experience, unless you want to bring Knight along with the hope it will better prepare him for the future. That said, it’s not a developmental tournament, you should be chips-in to win every go-round, and Swayman has played more high stakes games. 

There might be a case to say you like both Swayman and Knight over Oettinger (based on this season’s play), but statistically, the Dallas keeper has a career track record that’s tough to quibble with.

With that, I'm not changing anything with USA's goalies.

So, maybe Team USA's roster looks something like this:

Jason Robertson – Jack Eichel – Matthew Tkachuk
Matt Boldy – Auston Matthews – Brady Tkachuk
Jake Guentzel – Jack Hughes – Kyle Connor
JT Miller – Dylan Larkin – Matthew Knies
(Cutter Gauthier, Cole Caufield)

Quinn Hughes – Charlie McAvoy
Jaccob Slavin – Jake Sanderson
Zach Werenski – Brock Faber
Jackson LaCombe – Seth Jones

Connor Hellebuyck
Jake Oettinger
Jeremy Swayman

So, what does this all mean for the Canada? 

Well, in my humble opinion, not a whole lot. It means that the Americans are absolutely loaded (shocker) and somewhere between equals and favoured this time around. 

But building your roster with concern for another team’s roster – particularly one you’re not even sure you’ll play against – is a fool’s errand, and shouldn’t stop Canada from building the best, most complete team they can.

In any run to a championship you’ll have to play a variety of ways to beat a variety of opponents, and Canada can do it any way you want to do it. How their guys are used, and how those players execute, will determine their success, not the ability to have the right horses at their disposal. 

While the Americans chase Canadian tears, the goal for Canada’s result is bigger than that. Even so, they will always know exactly where their rivals are at, what they're up to, and just when it is likely they'll run into them next.