What the NHL standings would look like using PWHL points system

Take a look at the NHL standings today and you’ll probably immediately notice two things:

1. The playoff races look tight in both conferences. In the East, just four points separate the second wild card spot from the Montreal Canadiens in 12th place. In the West, the 12th place team is just five points out of either wild card position.

2. Man, there are a lot of .500 teams! Only seven of 32 teams are “below .500”.

That’s because, in the NHL world, things are closer — or better — than they seem thanks to the points system. With two points going to any game winner, and one point to any extra time loser, it’s hard to make up ground on (or pull away from) one team, let alone leapfrog a few of them. Even four points are a lot to make up for middling teams when the opposition can still get half the points you do in an OT or shootout decision.

The “tightness” of the playoff races are often artificial, just as the .500 marks you see. The NHL uses “points percentage” on their standings page and not, as most leagues, winning percentage, which would come out looking worse for a whole lot of clubs. Only 18 teams have “winning” percentages of .500 or better — the number of teams below .500 doubles through this lens.

The NHL may be fine with this set up — and some fans too! — but survey a wide group and, generally, I think you’d find a groundswell of support for a different system. The most popular often discussed is the three-point system that gives more weight to regulation wins versus extra time losses and theoretically separates the best teams more accurately.

The Professional Women’s Hockey League, in its inaugural season, took up this approach with their standings. In the PWHL, three points are awarded to a team that wins in regulation, two for an overtime or shootout win, and still one for an overtime or shootout loss.

So, we thought, how different would the current NHL standings look under this points system?

ATLANTIC TOP 3

• The Bruins and Panthers already have a healthy lead on the rest of the division, and this points system makes that separation all the more obvious. Boston has one game in hand of Florida, but the Panthers’ 24 regulation wins — the most in the East — pulls them closer.

• Detroit moved into third in the Atlantic Wednesday night under the current NHL points system, but were already there before before their 3-2 OT win against Florida in the three-point system. As you’ll see, their hold on this position gets a bit stronger in the three-point system versus the current system, where they have just a one point lead on Toronto, who has played two fewer games.

METROPOLITAN TOP 3

• The difference in the Metro Division is that Carolina jumps over Philadelphia for second under the three-point system and the Flyers fall back a little closer to the teams chasing given they have the fifth-most regulation wins in the division. As we move to the wild card table, keep in mind the Penguins, Devils and Capitals have all played two fewer games than the Flyers.

EAST WILD CARD PICTURE

• The most notable takeaway here is how far Toronto falls. The fact they are 25th in the NHL in regulation wins — the fewest of any team currently in a playoff spot — really hurts them in the three-point system. And while, yes, they have two games in hand of Tampa Bay and Detroit they’d actually have to win both of those games in regulation to pass the Wings again. And, they have played just as many games as New Jersey, Pittsburgh and Washington, who they’d either be tied with or chasing in a wild card race under this three-point system.

• The team that benefits the most here are the Devils, who jump from 12th in the East currently to ninth and right on the cusp of a wild card spot, with two games in hand of the Lightning (and just as many games played as the Penguins). Only four Eastern Conference teams have more regulation wins than the Devils.

• The other team that comes out showing better are the Penguins, who have just as many regulation wins as the Devils. Also with two games in hand of the Flyers, Pittsburgh is in better position in the three-point system to track them down and pass them. Under the current system the math doesn’t work in Pittsburgh’s favour (six points behind the Flyers with two games in hand) but in a three-point system Philadelphia is within striking distance (four points behind with two games in hand).

• Also worth pointing out that the Buffalo Sabres are actually more alive in the three-point system. They have the ninth-most regulation wins in the East (more than the Flyers in as many games played) and would be the same amount of points out of a playoff spot (seven) in either points system. But, especially if you can win in regulation, it’s far easier to actually make up that gap in the three-point system than it appears to be in the current setup.

CENTRAL TOP 3

• The order of the top three Central teams stays the same, but Winnipeg’s grip on the lead tightens. With two games in hand of the Avalanche, the Jets already have two more regulation wins than the 2022 Stanley Cup champions.

• In the current setup, Dallas is four points behind Colorado and could catch them in points by winning the two games they have in hand. But in the three-point system, Colorado’s advantage of six more regulation wins pushes the Stars back and makes their pursuit all the more difficult.

PACIFIC TOP 3

• The Canucks are already threatening to run away with the Pacific Division in the current setup and the three-point system puts them well ahead. This makes it clear that Vegas is closer to Los Angeles and Edmonton in a race for second, than they are in a race with Vancouver for top spot.

• The Kings have more regulation wins than Vegas already and still have three games in hand. Heck, Edmonton has more regulation wins than Vegas and they have four games in hand! If anything, the three-point system would drag the struggling Golden Knights closer to the wild card picture…

WEST WILD CARD

• The streaking Oilers are helped the most in a three-point system, where it’s clear they are far closer to the second-best team in the Pacific than in the thick of the wild card. Edmonton had just three regulation wins when Jay Woodcroft was fired on Nov. 12 — they have 16 in 27 games since.

• The Blues and Coyotes have two games in hand of Calgary, Seattle and Nashville in front of them. Of the teams chasing the playoff picture from further out, St. Louis’ position improves the most even though their minus-15 goal differential is the most troubling of this group.

• The Wild, just barely hanging on to a corner of the playoff race currently, fall well off the pace in a three-point system. They have one more game played than the Coyotes and Blues in front of them and clearly fall back into their own tier of “mushy middle” due to their lack of regulation wins.

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