Heading into the season, Montreal's Ivan Demidov was a heavy favourite to finish as the Calder Trophy winner as the NHL's top pick. Ten of 19 Sportsnet insiders polled before the season believed Demidov would come out as the eventual winner.
And Demidov has been fantastic, a crucial element on Montreal's second line, without which they'd surely not be just one point behind Tampa Bay in the Atlantic Division.
Schaefer, at the time, was newly incoming as the most recent first overall pick, but one who hadn't played since December of 2024. Take an 18-year-old who not only hadn't seen game action in 10 months, but also played a demanding position on defence, and the thought of a dominant first year probably wasn't in a lot of people's heads. Eventual impactful NHLer? Sure, Schaefer's skills were celebrated after he earned the No. 1 draft slot. But who saw this coming?
Only one of those Sportsnet insiders picked Schaefer for the Calder (well done, Mike Futa), and right now, he'd be the favourite for rookie of the year halfway through the season.
There is still much hockey to be played, though, and in trying conditions. The schedule will get tighter after the Olympic break, and tight playoff races will make for harder games down the stretch. Fast-starting rookies will be targeted more and more, and the player who finishes strongest may be the one who eventually wins the Calder Trophy.
Schaefer has created some space, but he's not in the clear yet. There are a couple of serious challengers already, and a few more rookies who we could see more of in the last 41 games. With that, we look at seven rookies who have especially caught our eye and will have designs on being at least a finalist for this award come June.
Matthew Schaefer, D, New York Islanders
Averaging nearly 24 minutes per game, Schaefer plays all situations for the Islanders, an immense accomplishment for an 18-year-old defenceman. Third in rookie scoring so far this season, Schaefer is on pace to finish with around 55 points, which would be the 13th-best offensive season by a rookie blue-liner over the past 55 years. At this rate, it would be a surprise if Schaefer doesn't end up winning the Calder. After all, he made as strong a case as he could to make Canada's Olympic roster.
Ivan Demidov, RW, Montreal Canadiens
While Schaefer is the mid-season Calder favourite, it's not as though he's without challengers. Demidov is the current points leader among all NHL freshmen and is on pace to reach 70 points, a level that has only been attained by Matt Barzal (85 points in 82 games) and Artemi Panarin (77 in 80) in the past 15 years. Demidov is a vital part of Montreal's spot in the tight standings as they make a push for a division crown, tied with Cole Caufield for most even-strength points among all Habs forwards, a first among all forwards on the team in primary and secondary assists per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time.
Beckett Sennecke, RW, Anaheim Ducks
Remember Sennecke's shocked reaction to the Ducks selecting him third overall at the 2024 draft, a little earlier than most projections had him listed? Less than two years later, he's making the team look good for the pick and hits the halfway mark of his first pro season tied for the NHL's rookie goal scoring lead. Like Schaefer, Sennecke is still eligible for the WJC (he wasn't picked for last year's team), but his role inside of Anaheim's top-six forward unit was too important to let him go. Averaging 16:46 per game, he is four seconds behind Detroit's Emmitt Finnie for most ice time among first-year forwards, while his 13 goals are third on the Ducks and tied for first among all rookies.
Jesper Wallstedt, G, Minnesota Wild
The Wall of St. Paul is the NHL's shutout leader, with four in just 17 games. His .928 save percentage is also the league's best, and his 2.30 GAA is also among the leaders. Suddenly, between Wallstedt and Filip Gustavsson, the Wild have one of the best goaltending tandems in the league, and both of them made Team Sweden's Olympic roster (along with Jacob Markstrom). The Wild are a bottom-half-of-the-league team in terms of expected goals against and high danger chances allowed at five-on-five, so the goalies are doing their part to elevate a contending roster.
Alexander Nikishin, D, Carolina Hurricanes
As a defenceman, Nikishin will be overshadowed all season by Schaefer's excellence, but the 24-year-old Russian is letting his more mature physical game do most of the talking. Nikishin is second on his team in hits (79) and leads all rookie blue-liners in the stat. The Hurricanes have also put him in a position of trust, with Nikishin averaging 1:30 per game on the penalty kill, the second-highest average PK ice time among rookies behind only Calgary's Yan Kuznetzov. Of course, the big difference is that Kuznetsov plays on a rebuilding team that is scratching and clawing for a shot at the playoffs, while Nikishin is put in such a big spot by a Stanley Cup contender.

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Oliver Kapanen, C, Montreal Canadiens
Tied with Sennecke atop the rookie goal-scoring lead is Kapanen, who has burst into the NHL as a confident shooter, an interesting development given he led all Finnish Liiga rookies in assists just three years ago. The 22-year-old has proven an excellent complement to Demidov on Montreal's second line, a key trio that has unlocked the team's ability to challenge for top spot in the Atlantic. Probably the biggest "surprise" on this list in terms of how significant an impact he's immediately had on a playoff team. And we'll see him suiting up for Finland at the Olympics, too.
Ryan Leonard, RW, Washington Capitals
Opportunity is rising for Ryan Leonard, who is fourth among all rookies in scoring despite missing two and a half weeks of action after getting injured on a Jacob Trouba hit. Ever since returning to action, he's recorded five points in six games and has gotten a chance on Washington's top power play unit. He played over 20 minutes for the first time on Saturday's loss to Chicago. While he won't regularly get that much opportunity, if more ice is extended his way, second-half production could elevate him in Calder talk.






