With less than three weeks to go in the regular season, NHL awards chatter is starting to pick up. While some awards seem to have a clear front-runner – like Connor McDavid for the Hart – others are wide open and perhaps no award is more of a toss-up right now than the Calder Trophy.
Earlier this season it looked like Kirill Kaprizov was going to run away with it, but Jason Robertson in Dallas has not only entered the chat, he might be the most deserving candidate.
Kaprizov is the flashier of the two. A dynamic player with the puck who boasts a highlight reel some veteran players could only dream of. Robertson’s game is more understated but no less impactful. A more well-rounded player, Robertson has been a major driver of success for the Dallas Stars, who are fighting for the last remaining playoff spot in the Central Division.
So, which player is the lead horse in this race? We’ll give you the case for each guy and let you decide.
Kirill Kaprizov
Kaprizov has injected life into the Minnesota Wild offence, playing alongside Victor Rask and Mats Zuccarello. Kaprizov leads all rookies in several key offensive areas such as goals, points and power-play goals.
In addition to pacing all rookies in these areas, Kaprizov ranks among the top forwards in the game in stats that speak to the dynamic nature of his game. Kaprizov is a threat to attack the net every time he picks up steam in the neutral zone. The 24-year-old ranks 14th in controlled zone entries averaging 5.9 per game. From there, Kaprizov is as dangerous as just about anybody when it comes to beating defenders 1-on-1, ranking 13th in the league in open-ice dekes averaging 4.8 per game. An example of his magic in these areas came last week against the L.A. Kings.
What makes Kaprizov such a special player is his blend of skill and strength. Listed at five-foot-nine and 201 pounds, Kaprizov is tough to push off the puck which allows him to win battles and extend offensive zone possession for a Wild team that thrives on cycling the puck. Kaprizov ranks 51st among all forwards in puck battle wins per game (3.3) and 19th in offensive zone puck possession (0:50).
While Kaprizov has certainly benefitted from playing six years of pro hockey in the KHL in Russia, his seamless adaptation to the NHL has been impressive. The skill is obvious but he’s also not a player who can be pushed off the puck or out of the game easily. The Wild have a long-standing reputation for being good but not good enough. Kaprizov is doing his part to change that. Minnesota has clinched a playoff spot and still has a shot at grabbing one of the top two spots in the West Division. No matter who they face in the first round of the playoffs, the Wild won’t be an easy out thanks to Kaprizov’s game-breaking ability.
Jason Robertson
Robertson’s road to Calder consideration hasn’t been quite as seamless as Kaprizov’s, but make no mistake, he’s been just as impressive this season.
The Stars’ start to the season was delayed 10 days due to a COVID-19 outbreak at training camp. When their season did start, Robertson played a couple of games before being assigned to the taxi squad. Robertson didn’t start suiting up regularly for the Stars until the second week of February, but he’s been a big part of Dallas’ success since.
Robertson has been one of the top even-strength scorers in the NHL for the past two months. Not amongst rookies – amongst all players.
When McDavid is the only guy ahead of you on a list like that, you know you’re rolling.
Robertson doesn’t show up on the highlight reels as often as Kaprizov but you’ll find his name on the scoresheet just as often. The 21-year-old leads all rookies in points per game, averaging 0.91, and is currently riding a nine-game point streak.
Robertson has flourished this season playing mainly with Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz. The line has an expected goals for percentage of 58.8% and Robertson’s all-around game has contributed to the line being on the right side of the scoring chance totals. By comparison, Kaprizov’s line is in the red, just barely at 49%.
When isolating Robertson’s impact, his defensive game looks even better. Only seven forwards with at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5 have a lower expected goals against per 20 minutes than Robertson’s 0.61. Kaprizov ranks 145th at 0.85 expected goals against per 20. Robertson’s impressive number in this area is partially due to the way the defence-first Stars play but also because Robertson rarely makes a poor play with the puck. Robertson turns the puck over on just 9 per cent of his defensive zone possessions, which ranks 19th among all forwards.
In addition to his impressive defensive numbers, Robertson also ranks among the league leaders in primary assists. Twenty of his 25 assists have been first assists, which ranks 14th overall.
So which player is most deserving of rookie of the year honours? That might depend on what voters are most impressed by. You can debate their traditional stats either way. Kaprizov has more goals and has been a bigger presence on the power play. Robertson has more assists and has been the better even-strength player. Kaprizov is more dynamic but Robertson has more balance to his game.
There isn’t a wrong choice and, given how close the race is right now, perhaps the final few weeks of the season will see one player vault himself into the lead.
