Why Senators top prospect Carter Yakemchuk should start season in AHL

OTTAWA — The question many are asking: Will supremely talented defenceman Carter Yakemchuk make the Senators’ opening roster?

But an ever better query might be whether he should.

The 20-year-old blue liner said early in training camp that his goal was to be a Senator by opening night.

“Every time I get on the ice, it's an opportunity to showcase myself,” Yakemchuk told Sportsnet.ca.

But one year after a breakout, goal-filled pre-season, Yakemchuk has been held without a point this time around. His offensive flash has shown up in spurts, yet never on the scoreboard where it counts. On the brighter side, Yakemchuk has proven himself to be more reliable defensively, which was the main concern heading into the season.

Head coach Travis Green described Yakemchuk's pre-season showing as "good."

“He’s shown some really good things. There’s been times where he’s going to make mistakes as a young defenceman, (but) that’s part of the process," Green said.

Process, you say?

The Senators want and ultimately need Yakemchuk to blossom into a star top-four defenceman. Throwing him into the fire against the Tampa Bay Lightning on opening day, Oct. 9, could hamper his development.

The interesting wrinkle — and the case for Yakemchuk to be in the lineup — is that he’s arguably been one of Ottawa’s best three right-shot defencemen in the pre-season. With Nick Jensen now healthy, it lessens the chances of a spot for Yakemchuk, but it doesn’t eliminate the odds. Nikolas Matinpalo, who was stapled to Tyler Kleven’s side last season, has been demoted down the lineup in pre-season.

Meanwhile, off-season blue-line addition Jordan Spence has been routinely playing with Donovan Sebrango, who appears unlikely to make the opening-night lineup. Green called Spence’s play “OK” last week.

“Not sure yet,” Green said of Spence’s role. “He's going to tell us what his role is.”

Another potential plot point is the availability of Kleven, who did not play another game in pre-season after suffering a lower-body injury in the opener. In tandem with Sebrango likely not ready for that jump to the big leagues, could Ottawa play two right shots on the bottom pair? It may be forced to.

In the meantime, Yakemchuk has played with both Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot and held his own.

“For me personally, it's really exciting to get the chance to play with so many good players,” Yakemchuk said.

“They're both really, really good NHL players, so to watch them, and be able to be on the ice with them, I try to take in what they do on the ice and apply some of the things to my game.”

Not bad role models.

On its face, Yakemchuk has perhaps played well enough to make the opening-night roster. At the same time, though, he also hasn't forced his way onto the team with an exceptional showing.

If he were to be sent to AHL Belleville, he'd play top-four minutes — a role similar to the one Ottawa eventually wants him to play in the NHL. Ultimately, it may be better for Yakemchuk to get experience there and learn pro hockey, especially when the big club carries two serviceable options in Spence and Matinpalo. No rush. He has been good enough, but hasn’t been great enough.

In a recent interview with Sportsnet, Steve Staios suggested that it will be up to Yakemchuk to force his way onto the roster.

Whether he's done that is up for debate.

“When the competition gets higher, I think my game elevates,” Yakemchuk said. “So that's fun to be in those types of games against really good players.”

Surely, that's in his future. For now, though?

Bring on Belleville.  

Jensen returns

Jensen hit the ice on Saturday against the Montreal Canadiens for his first game after off-season hip surgery. He struggled in his pre-season debut, but grew into the game and recorded an assist while playing alongside Chabot.

In any case, it was a milestone for Jensen to return at all after a summer in which neither he nor his doctors were sure he’d ever play again.

“You hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” Jensen said. “And then mentally, is this going to happen? Maybe not. Maybe my career might be done.”

So just getting back on the ice is a personal triumph. But at 35, will Jensen be the same player that dominated matchups alongside Chabot before his injury last November?

“I don't notice anything where I'm like, ‘Oh, (I’m) a little bit slower,’” he said. “I feel back to myself.”

Jensen continued for the vast majority of last season with a massively injured hip that forced him to routinely be in a large amount of pain. Warrior.

The differences in analytics for Jensen pre- versus post-injury when paired with Chabot were stark.

Stats according to Evolving-Hockey

The Senators already know that Sanderson is an elite defenceman who shuts down opponents' world-class players. But if Ottawa gets a healthy and effective Jensen who rejuvenates his partnership with Chabot, it will be able to match up against teams’ best players and feel it can win those minutes. 

Jensen’s play could be Ottawa’s ultimate X-factor.

Merilainen worries

There will be questions in between the pipes as the regular season approaches — specifically, whether 23-year-old Leevi Merilainen is up to the task of being a full-time NHL backup.

Presuming No. 1 Linus Ullmark is healthy, Merilainen is slated to play 30-35 games, according to Green. But in pre-season, Merilainen has allowed 11 goals on 42 shots. Ouch.

That performance garnered Merilainen plenty of worry from Senators fans. It’s understandable. We won’t walk through all 11 goals, but Merilainen could have been better on at least two or three. And it's worth remembering, in any case, that we're working with a small sample size here.

Ask people within the Senators organization about Merilainen and they say his biggest strength is his calm demeanour.

“I think that's a huge part, actually,” Merilainen said. “I feel like I'm like that as a person, so that comes naturally.”

Merilainen explained his mental thought process.

“The next shot is coming real quick, and you don't have time to start worrying about it or digging into it too much. It's just like you have to be ready,” Merilainen said.

“So I feel like we're all pretty good at that at this point in our careers. Even though I'm still young and learning, we as goalies, we've been doing this for a long time, so that's one big part you have to be pretty good at if you want to make it far.”

Merilainen understands how he needs to play to back up his stellar .925 save percentage with three shutouts as a Senator last year.

“Just to recognize the spots when to be very, very athletic, making those split-second saves. And when not to," he said.

“I like to say I'm an athletic goalie, but sometimes maybe a little too much. So, it's just calming it down a little bit.”

Injuries

Kleven and Drake Batherson both skated on Saturday, but not with the team. The question of their availability still looms large ahead of Ottawa’s season opener.