With the World Series being contested between the LA Dodgers and New York Yankees, it’s an appropriate time to reflect on one of Yankee great Yogi Berra’s famous quotes: “It’s Déjà vu all over again.”
The Edmonton Oilers are off to another poor start this season. It’s not as dire as it was last year at this time when they were 2-7-1, but the Oilers’ first 10-game segment has been uneven to say the least. Their 4-5-1 record is only marginally better than it was 12 months ago.
There’s a lot to unpack when it comes to the current state of the Edmonton Oilers and with Connor McDavid now out with injury the entire group has to elevate their game. Instead of breaking down every individual on the roster I’ve taken on the curious results of Zach Hyman, who hasn’t scored a goal and has just one assist through 10 games, after he scored 54 times in 2023-24.
IDENTITY
Hyman isn’t a burner in open ice. The Oilers have players who transport the puck with speed and drive opponents off their blue line (such as McDavid) but Hyman’s primary role is to extend plays along the boards and go to the crease to set screens, tip pucks, and score off rebounds. He averages over 19 minutes of ice time per game at even strength and the power play.
One of his more surprising statistics reflects the actual amount of hits Hyman doles out. He plays a heavy game, but isn’t a punishing player. In fact, McDavid had more hits (118) than Hyman (87) last year.
Another interesting statistic is that Hyman contributes most of his scoring at even strength, which is obviously harder to accomplish compared to playing with the man advantage.
Over the past two seasons combined, Hyman has produced 90 goals and 70 assists total, with 60 goals coming at even strength and 30 on the power play.
“It’s kind of just been a staple of my game. I’ve always been trying to figure out how to score goals, and that’s the way I score goals,” Hyman said in 2023. “Early on, coaches always say if you want to score goals, you have to go to the net. In college, I didn’t score very much in my first couple of years, even though I was still going to the net. When I first got to the NHL, I didn’t score that much either, but I was still going to the net.”
STRATEGY
Hyman is a smart player. He understands his strengths and weaknesses and how to impact the game positively for his team.
“There is a difference between going to the net and going to the net with a purpose and going to score,” he said. “You have to be able to separate yourself from your defender, get your stick free, and you have to try and figure out where the puck’s going to be. There’s a lot of different things that go into it. If you go to the net enough, you’re going to figure it out.”
Hyman’s approach to the game is predictable. The majority of his shots on goal come from the middle of the ice, between the hash marks and from the slot-down towards the net.
Here’s a look at Hyman’s shot metrics from last season compared to the start of this year:
Hyman continues to find pucks around the crease this season and has already had plenty of chances to score. He’s in the top 10 per cent of players directing pucks on net and the majority come from high danger areas. They just haven’t gone in for him yet. At all.
OBSERVATIONS
When a player is coming off a 54-goal regular season and 16-goal playoff run, as Hyman is, it’s alarming to see them struggle to produce offence so early. Has he subtly changed anything? Or is he simply having a stretch of tough puck luck?
Here’s a clip from the Oilers’ game versus Detroit on Sunday night. Hyman sets up shop in familiar territory. The puck ends up on Evan Bouchard‘s stick and he rips a ‘Bouch Bomb’ on net. Unfortunately for Edmonton the puck hits Hyman on the backside, leading to a clear for the Red Wings on their penalty-kill:
Reflecting on the success Hyman, and the Oilers, had during their journey to the Stanley Cup Final this next clip is a very similar play that ended in a different result for Edmonton. Hyman sets up in the crease, the puck ends up on Bouchard’s stick, he directs it on net, and it deflects off Hyman into the Panthers’ net. “Puck luck” was on Hyman’s side in this sequence.
I dove into the majority of Hyman’s shifts to start this season. There were some sequences I would have liked him to exit the defensive zone earlier, push the pace more aggressively going on offence and then capitalize on his scoring chances. But I can honestly say he has been one of the more reliable Oilers in terms of playing to his identity to start this season, despite his struggles offensively.
Here’s an example of what I’ve noticed more often than not. In the following clip Hyman anticipates his group is going to work the puck to the front of the net. Unfortunately for Edmonton, McDavid turns it over inside the Dallas zone. As the play moves into the neutral zone Bouchard had a chance to kill the Stars’ momentum but failed to execute. Mattias Ekholm fails to front his check and Stuart Skinner is scrambling out of position.
The Oilers were pushing to tie this game and with less than eight minutes to play they rolled their first power play unit over the boards at even strength, trusting Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard, McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Hyman to produce in this situation. But it hasn’t gone their way in the first 10-game segment.
RESULTS
As much as I appreciate Hyman’s consistent approach, the Oilers do need him to get off the mat and start cashing in on his chances like this:
Or this one from Monday’s loss, when the Blue Jackets still only had a 1-0 lead.
It’s a results-oriented business and hard working disturbers are found in the bottom six of most NHL rosters. Hyman is a top six forward who has a primary role on the power play and he needs to capitalize on chances like these. The good news is his process remains consistent and he continues to get opportunities.
We’ve seen where Hyman looks good by the eye test, but if you believe more in an analytical measure — or wish to consider it as well — Hyman leads all Oilers in high danger chances and expected goals in all situations. Per Natural Stat Trick, Hyman could be expected to have nearly six goals by now, and yet he still hasn’t got on the board.
It’s difficult for me to predict or expect Hyman to score 54 goals again this season — especially when he’s been snake-bitten through his first 10 games — but the fact he scored 50 over his last 68 games last year at least gives me hope it’s only a matter of time before the puck starts finding the net in bunches for Hyman.
And now with McDavid out of the Oilers’ lineup, Edmonton will need Hyman to regain his scoring touch more than ever.