What you need to know about the men's Olympic hockey bracket

After a day of thinking about goal differentials and tiebreak scenarios, the men's Olympic hockey tournament becomes a win-or-go-home playoff.

Canada, USA, Slovakia and Finland finish 1-4 in that order and get a bye into the quarterfinal games on Wednesday. Before that, the teams finishing ranked 5-12 will play through a qualifying round on Tuesday.

Here is what the rankings look like coming out of the preliminary round.

In the qualifying round, it's No. 5 seed vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10, No. 8 vs. No. 9, and the winners will move on to face a predetermined opponent. However, keep in mind that when we get to the semifinals, the remaining teams will be re-ranked, so the top remaining team will meet the lowest-ranked team.

Here's how the matchups are shaping up heading into Tuesday's qualification round:

No. 5 Switzerland vs. No. 12 Italy

The Swiss gave Canada its toughest game in the preliminary round, though it was a 5-1 final. Kevin Fiala, Denis Malgin and Andrea Glauser were all injured and out of the lineup by Switzerland's third game, where they beat Czechia in the only contest to reach overtime so far. Switzerland's only win in an NHL Olympic playoff round was a 3-2 victory over Belarus in 2010.

The winner of this game will play against Finland in the quarterfinal. In the 2022 Olympics (without NHL players), Finland beat Switzerland 5-1 in the quarterfinal.

No. 6 Germany vs. No. 11 France

There were seven teams that had more than Germany's three points, but a second-place finish in Group C puts them in a great position to reach the quarterfinal and even have a shot at a medal game. The Germans have never won a playoff round in an NHL Olympic tournament -- losing 8-2 to Canada as the 11 seed in 2010, and 5-0 to the USA in the 2002 quarterfinal -- but were silver medallists in the 2018 Olympic tournament. Tim Stutzle is tied with Macklin Celebrini for the goal-scoring lead in the tournament (four).

The winner of this game will play Slovakia in the quarterfinal. If it's Germany, that would create a rematch from the 2022 Olympics, where Slovakia shut out Germany in the first playoff round, 4-0.

No. 7 Sweden vs. No. 10 Latvia

The last-minute goal against Sweden by Slovakia's Dalibor Dvorsky makes the road more difficult for the Tre Kronor, who shouldn't even look past Latvia. In 2014, the last Olympic tournament with NHLers, Latvia beat Switzerland 3-1 as the No. 11 seed, then lost to Canada by just a narrow 2-1 score in the quarterfinal. And in 2010, as the 12 seed, Latvia took the Czech Republic to overtime before losing 3-2.

The winner of this game will face Team USA in the quarterfinal. Sweden and the Americans have never played in the playoff round of an NHL Olympic tournament.

No. 8 Czechia vs. No. 9 Denmark

Czechia didn't have the strongest showing in the preliminary round. They were overwhelmed and shut out by Canada in their opener. They allowed France to score three of its five goals, and trailed that game in the second period. Their best effort was an overtime loss to Switzerland in the third game. Overall, Czechia's -3 goal differential from the preliminary round is the same as Denmark's.

The winner of this game will play No. 1 seed Canada in the quarterfinal. The last time Canada and Czechia met in a playoff round of an NHL Olympic tournament, it was 1998. Dominik Hasek dominated the shootout, Wayne Gretzky was left on the bench, and the Canadians were upset in the semifinal. This is already the furthest Denmark has made it in an NHL Olympic tournament.

Meantime, here's what the path to gold looks like for the teams that will get a bye straight into the quarterfinal:

No. 1: Team Canada

A +17 goal differential ended up well ahead of the USA's +11. Canada has allowed just three goals against but also leads the tournament in offence. Three of the top four scorers in the tournament are Canadians: Connor McDavid (11 points), Macklin Celebrini (six) and Sidney Crosby (six). McDavid has a chance to make some history, too. He has seven assists, just one shy of tying an NHL Olympic record (Saku Koivu eight assists in 1998 and 2006), and his nine points are just two shy of tying that NHL Olympic record (11 by Teemu Selanne and Koivu in 2006).

Their path to gold: The No. 1 ranking puts Canada in place to see Czechia in the quarterfinal instead of Sweden. However, if the bracket stays chalk, they'd also have to play Finland instead of Slovakia in the semifinal.

Something else to keep in mind: If Sweden were to upset Team USA in the quarterfinal, it would lock in a matchup with Canada in the semis (unless France or Italy find a way through).

No. 2: Team USA

The Americans had the easiest path through the preliminary round, avoiding any of the top countries. They got through without issue, outside of a single early scare from Denmark, who took two leads in the first period before losing 6-3. Jeremy Swayman's shaky start locks in Connor Hellebuyck as the No. 1 goalie, if there were any doubt. Through the preliminary round, Hellebuyck has a tournament-leading .952 save percentage.

Their path to gold: Unless Latvia pulls off an upset, the USA will meet Sweden in a quarterfinal matchup that will leave one country leaving earlier than planned. However, it also puts the Americans on track to meet Slovakia in the semifinal, barring an upset.

Something else to keep in mind: If Germany happened to get through Slovakia in the quarterfinal, the U.S. path would most likely have to go through Sweden, Finland and Canada for gold.

No. 3: Team Slovakia

The biggest surprise of the preliminary round was Slovakia finishing ahead of Sweden and Finland in Group B. Juraj Slafkovsky's two-goal, three-point effort in their opening win gave Slovakia the leg up it needed to outlast a narrow one-goal win over Italy, and a loss to Sweden. Slafkovsky is tied for second in scoring this tournament, the only non-Canadian player with six points.

Their path to gold: The best playoff run Slovakia has ever had in an NHL Olympic tournament was in 2010, when they upset Sweden in the quarterfinal before losing to Canada 3-2 in the semifinal and to Finland 5-3 in the bronze medal game. This time, they will be favoured in their quarterfinal matchup and are in line to meet the USA in the semifinal.

Something else to keep in mind: If Canada or the USA were to lose in the quarterfinal, Slovakia would be reranked as the No. 2 seed and be in place to face Finland in the semis, a team they beat 4-1 in the preliminary round.

No. 4: Team Finland

Even though they had a disappointing 4-1 loss to Slovakia to start the tournament, the Finns had no trouble with Sweden or Italy and come out of the preliminary round with the same goal differential as Team USA. Joel Armia, Kaapo Kakko, Artturi Lehkonen and Mikko Rantanen are all tied for the team scoring lead at four points.

Their path to gold: Do not underestimate Finland. With the exception of 2002, Finland has eliminated at least one of the five other top six hockey nations in every NHL Olympic playoff tournament. If there are no upsets, Finland would meet Canada in the semifinal. Those countries have played twice in an NHL Olympic hockey playoff game: In 1998, Finland beat Canada 3-2 in the bronze medal game, and in 2002, Canada beat Finland 2-1 in the quarterfinal.

Something else to keep in mind: In the five NHL Olympics so far, Finland has won a medal four times, more than any other country.

And one more thing...

Remember the overtime rules!

In every elimination game except the gold medal game, overtime will consist of a 10-minute, 3-on-3 sudden-death period, followed by a shootout if it remains tied.

In the gold medal game, overtime will consist of 20-minute periods of 3-on-3 sudden-death hockey until someone scores.