The draw for the London 2012 Women’s Olympic Football Tournament was announced on Tuesday at Wembley Stadium, as the 12 teams were divided into three groups:
Group E: Great Britain, New Zealand, Cameroon, Brazil
Group F: Japan, Canada, Sweden, South Africa
Group G: USA, France, Colombia, Korea DPR
The first place and runners up from each group, plus the two best third-place teams, will advance to the quarterfinals.
"Group of Death" is already a term that’s being thrown around in reference to Canada’s draw. Placed into Group F with Japan, South Africa, and Sweden, the Canadians certainly have their work cut out for them. But Group G, in my opinion, is the toughest of the three. Group F won’t be easy by any means, but it’s the crossover quarterfinal that will pose the greatest challenge for Canada.
After watching the Americans bulldoze every team that dared to stand in their way during Olympic qualifications, and witnessing France’s seemingly over-night transformation into one of the most exciting and dominant teams in the women’s game, I’d say that Group F is the "Group of Death". Even Korea DPR has been known to put up a fight in major international tournaments. So other than Colombia (who, let’s face it, doesn’t stand a chance in this group), Group G will be the most competitive.
Group E seems pretty cut and dry: I’ll predict that Brazil is the clear first-place team, Great Britain and New Zealand will be fighting for runner up, and Cameroon probably won’t earn a single point.
It seems inevitable that the USA and France will finish first and second in Group G, which means the first and third-place teams (assuming Group F produces one of the best third-place teams) will play either of these two sides in the quarterfinals. So finishing first in Group F might actually make things more difficult for the Canadians, as they’d have to either play the US or France in the knock-out stages. While every team should approach the group stage with the goal of winning every game, finishing runner-up in Group F may actually put Canada in the most favourable position in the crossover. They’d face the Group E second-place team in this case, and as I mentioned above, Group E is certainly the weakest of the three.
So what are Canada’s chances of making it out of their group?
Well, Canada’s all-time record vs. Japan is positive, but Japan has come a very long way in the last few years. They surprised many with their dominance at last summer’s World Cup in Germany, including the FIFA No. 1 ranked Americans in the World Cup final. It will be interesting to see how the Canadians match up against Japan’s technical superiority and tactical organization. Canada definitely has the physical advantage over the Japanese, but that didn’t prove to be enough for the Americans last summer at the World Cup. Canada will need to counter Japan with more than just size and strength in London.
Sweden was also very impressive in Germany last July, upsetting the world power house USA 2-1 in group play and finishing third in the tournament overall.
Canada played Sweden recently in a friendly match on Mar. 31 in Malmö, Sweden. The Canadians fell 3-1 to what once again appeared to be a very strong Swedish side. The Canadian women assured me though, that this was not a good indication of how these two teams will match up in London. Emily Zurrer explained how Canadian coach John Herdman was "testing out a new formation" (a 4-1-4-1 "Christmas Tree" offence with a lone striker up top) and the Canadians were working out more than a few kinks defensively with some new faces on the back line. By the time July rolls around and Canada has ironed out their formation and tactics, I think Sweden will be an even match, one that Canada can win if at their best.
Not to completely ignore the third team in Group F, but South Africa realistically should be the least of Canada’s concerns. There will be no room for underestimating any team in this tournament, but anything less than a decisive win against South Africa would be shocking and a huge disappointment for the Canadian side.
No one can deny that being placed in a group with top teams Japan and Sweden is daunting, but captain Christine Sinclair welcomes the challenge. She’s especially eager to play the Japanese side, since it’s been so long since these two countries have met. She’s also optimistic of her team’s chances against the Swedes, shrugging her shoulders and assuring me that even after the loss in Malmo in March, "we can win."
France on the other hand, is the team she thinks they’ll need to look out for. Before the draw, Sinclair expressed that having France in their group would have been a good thing, so as to avoid them in the crossover of the knockout stage and "get it over with" early on. According to Sinclair, right now, France is "the best team" in the women’s game. After Tuesday’s draw, it looks like a France-Canada quarterfinal is quite likely.
The fact that there doesn’t seem to be an easy road for any team in this tournament is an indication of just how far the women’s game has come. Regardless of who advances, the knockout round will prove to be highly competitive and extremely entertaining. With the increasing parity in women’s international soccer these days, tough match-ups are unavoidable.
Canadian centre-back Carmelina Moscato commented on the challenge ahead for her team: "We are working hard here in residency to ensure we give ourselves the best chance at success, against whoever comes along our path. We might just have to do it the hard way, and that is a challenge this group was made for."
The Canadian women will open the tournament against Japan on Jul.25, then play South Africa on Jul. 28 and Sweden on Jul. 31.