The group stage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup is in the books, and that means the field has been halved.
Gone are the feel-good stories of Iceland, Peru and Panama. Gone are all five African nations. Gone are the defending champions, Germany.
Now, after one of the more memorable first rounds in recent history, the World Cup is turned up a notch for the 16 teams remaining: win or go home.
In a must-win match, anything can happen and sometimes what teams accomplished in their first three games is of little consequence. But those contests have given us a better look at how the remaining nations stack up.
Here’s how we rank the last 16 of the 2018 FIFA World Cup on the eve of the knockout stage.
1) Uruguay
Group stage record: 3-0-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 14
The only nation to not concede a goal in the group stage, Uruguay has the type of defensive solidity that we often see in World Cup champions. Couple that with two deadly strikers in Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, and we could see La Celeste make a deep run.
2) Croatia
Group stage record: 3-0-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 20
There were some serious questions coming into the tournament about Croatia, a squad full of talent but a country that had failed to impact a major tournament since a third-place finish at the 1998 World Cup. On the contrary, this Luka Modric-led side silenced all the doubters with a perfect group stage, showcasing a dominant midfield and impressive defence.
3) Brazil
Group stage record: 2-1-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 2
Outside of the brilliance of Philippe Coutinho, we’ve yet to see the best of what Brazil has to offer. The good news is the Seleção showed improvement in each of their three group stage matches, and a last-16 matchup against Mexico is very much in Brazil’s favour.
4) France
Group stage record: 2-1-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 7
Despite winning their group, the star-studded French lineup has yet to put together 90 complete minutes nor show fans the full potential of the young squad. If Didier Deschamps can’t bring it all together against Argentina, France might leave Russia much earlier than expected.
5) Belgium
Group stage record: 3-0-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 3
The Red Devils are one of just three teams to win all three group stage games, but aren’t grouped with Uruguay and Croatia so we don’t exactly know what Belgium is yet. Two wins over Panama and Tunisia, plus a 1-0 victory over the English B squad means Roberto Martinez’s team has yet to really be tested. That will remain true against Japan in the next round.
[snippet id=3758859]
6) England
Group stage record: 2-0-1
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 12
Much like Belgium, the Three Lions are a tough team to evaluate given their first two opponents plus a tight loss in a reserves versus reserves showdown against those Red Devils. England’s loss to Belgium means their first knockout-round opponent, Colombia, offers a challenge for Gareth Southgate’s side, but put England on the easier half of the knockout bracket.
7) Spain
Group stage record: 1-2-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 10
Has the unexpected firing of Julen Lupetegui had a bigger impact than expected? Spain were poor in the group stage, but were incredibly lucky to draw Russia in the last 16 and, like England, fall on a side of the bracket they should be able to handle easily.
8) Portugal
Group stage record: 1-2-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 4
Portugal and its fans will be furious with the controversial decisions that moved its team to the heavyweight half of the bracket that Fernando Santos’s squad would’ve avoided if it won Group B. But we’ve seen Cristiano Ronaldo & Co. bounce back from disappointing group stages in the past…
9) Colombia
Group stage record: 2-0-1
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 16
Colombia bounced back nicely from a tough Matchday 1 loss to Japan with a dominant display against Poland and a grind-it-out victory over Senegal to top Group H. But Los Cafeteros will be in tough against England without star man James Rodriguez, who is dealing with an ongoing calf injury.
10) Switzerland
Group stage record: 1-2-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 6
Switzerland has shown plenty of guts through three games, coming from behind in their first two matches to get results against Brazil (1-1 draw) and Serbia (2-1 win) before an injury-time Yann Sommer own-goal saw the Swiss drop points on the final matchday. Vladimir Petković’s team doesn’t play the most attractive brand of football, but gets results and should be able to get past Sweden in the last 16.
[relatedlinks]
11) Sweden
Group stage record: 2-0-1
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 24
Sweden’s finish atop Group F may be the biggest surprise so far in Russia — outside of Germany’s stunning exit. The Swedes scored just two goals in their first two games (just one from open play) before a three-goal outburst against Mexico tipped Group F in their favour. Their last-16 match with Switzerland is a toss up, but it’s hard to see Sweden getting past the quarterfinals.
12) Mexico
Group stage record: 2-0-1
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 15
An otherwise excellent group stage was marred by a pathetic 3-0 loss to Sweden on the final matchday of the group stage, but Germany’s loss was Mexico’s gain. It’s hard to like El Tri’s chances against Brazil in the Round of 16, but the Mexicans already have a history of knocking off giants in this tournament.
13) Argentina
Group stage record: 1-1-1
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 5
Argentina’s thrilling win against Nigeria could signal a momentum shift for Jorge Sampaoli’s side. What’s more likely, however, is La Albiceleste’s disorganization will continue against France in the last 16 and Leo Messi’s World Cup hopes are dashed one last time.
14) Russia
Group stage record: 2-0-1
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 70
After disposing of Saudi Arabia and Egypt with surprising ease, the hosts came crashing down to earth against Uruguay in the last group game. It doesn’t get any easier in the Round of 16 against Spain.
15) Denmark
Group stage record: 1-2-0
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 12
The Danes were stingy in the group stage, conceding just once, but scored only a pair of goals to earn second spot in Group C. Coming up against Croatia in the next round — who scored seven goals and won all three group games — Denmark will likely need to replicate Tuesday’s 0-0 draw with France, forcing penalties to allow Kasper Schmeichel to do his thing.
16) Japan
Group stage record: 1-1-1
Pre-tournament FIFA ranking: 61
If group stage karma carries over to the last 16 like yellow cards, Japan don’t stand a chance of advancing past the Round of 16. The Samurai Blue played very negative football in their last group match, a 1-0 loss to Poland, banking on a result in the Colombia-Senegal clash to work in their favour. Karma aside, Japan are the weakest side in the knockout stage, and face little chance of getting past Belgium.
