Analytics can help sort out the true from the fabricated, the sustainable from the unsustainable and the good from the bad. However, much of the appeal of soccer is aesthetic and that is something very personal.
If you have played the game as a goalkeeper and love sweeper-keepers you probably want Manuel Neuer to win the Ballon d’Or. If you like explosive and powerful attackers you probably want Ronaldo to win World Player of the Year. If you value vision and close control dribbling you’re probably hoping Lionel Messi and his polka-dotted bow tie take home the award again.
I mention this because I’m writing about Ronaldo and any conversation about how good he is inevitably devolves into a conversation about who is the best player in the world. I don’t think it is the place of analytics to answer that question, but what they can do is illustrate just how impressive Ronaldo’s output at Real Madrid has been this season.
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So far in 2014-15 in La Liga, Ronaldo has been scoring at a rate of 1.8 goals per 90 minutes. That in itself is worth repeating—Ronaldo is scoring at a rate of almost two goals every 90 minutes that he is on the pitch.
Just considering this in context for a moment, this means opposition defences—who are clearly instructed to give Ronaldo some special treatment whether it is double-teaming, excessive fouling or whatever else—are still only able to hold him to just under two goals per game, ignoring the rest of Real Madrid’s star-studded attack.
As a frame of reference Ronaldo, who has already had a prolific career at Real Madrid, has never come close to this goal-scoring rate in his career. Ronaldo was awarded the Ballon d’Or in 2013 based on a combination of his 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons. In 2012-13 he scored 1.1 goals per 90 minutes and in 2013-14 it was 1.2 goals per 90 minutes. So Ronaldo has added more than half a goal per game in 2014-15 to a goal scoring record that had already made him one of the best in the world.
During the period where Messi won the Ballon d’Or four times in a row (2009-2012) his goal scoring rates were 1.1, 1.0, 1.4 and 1.6 goals per 90 minutes. All incredibly high—particularly the 2012-13 season of 1.6 goals per 90 minutes—but still less than Ronaldo has been scoring in 2014-15. Again, this isn’t to say that Ronaldo is better than Messi, just that he is scoring more this season than Messi ever has in his career.
The one caveat on Ronaldo’s ridiculous scoring record this campaign is that these numbers take into account all of the penalties he has scored as well. If we look at only non-penalty goals, Ronaldo’s record drops to 1.3 goals per 90 minutes. This is still higher than his non-penalty goal scoring records in 2012-13 and 2013-14 of 1.0 and 0.9 goals per 90 minutes respectively.
Messi’s non-penalty goal scoring numbers in 2012-13 are actually a little higher than Ronaldo’s are this season, as he was averaging 1.4 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes.
Removing penalty shots from goal scoring numbers is often controversial. On one hand penalties are scored during matches at an almost universal rate of about three in four. Those who believe penalties should be removed from goal scoring numbers argue they don’t accurately reflect a player’s ability to score and it’s actually the player who wins the penalty that deserves the majority of the credit. On the other hand it is still a skill and a goal scored from a penalty shot is worth the same on the scoreboard as any other goal.
Taking the first approach we can view penalties as the result of two distinct actions. The first is winning the penalty and the second is actually scoring the penalty. Looking at Ronaldo’s numbers in this new light we can limit the goals we consider to those from open play, free-kicks and penalty shots for which he both won and scored the penalty himself. Under this modified goal-scoring metric Ronaldo is averaging 1.6 goals per 90 minutes.
Sometimes these goal-scoring rates become a little abstract and don’t actually convey how many goals they add up to over a season. Aggregating these rates over a long period of time gives a clearer picture.
Imagine Ronaldo played every minute of every game this season in La Liga. If he continued to score at the rate he has so far he would finish with 68 goals. In 2013-14, that would have been the fifth highest goal-tally in La Liga. Two seasons ago it would have been the fourth highest in the league. In 2011-12 it would have been the third highest goal-tally in La Liga behind only Real Madrid and Barcelona.
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Even using the rate of 1.6 goals per 90 minutes, which eliminates the penalties that Ronaldo did not win himself, means he would finish with 60 goals this season, which would have been the seventh highest in 2013-14, the sixth highest in 2012-13 and still the third highest in 2011-12.
Ronaldo isn’t just scoring at a higher rate than some middling teams—he is scoring at the same rate as teams competing for Champions League spots in La Liga.
What is bizarre about Ronaldo’s season is that he is doing all of this while taking fewer shots. In the 2013-14, Ronaldo was averaging 7.8 shots per 90 minutes. This season he is only averaging 6.8 shots per 90 minutes. Even from inside the penalty area he is taking 3.6 shots per 90 minutes, down from 4.2 last season.
The La Liga campaign isn’t even at the halfway point yet and there is lots of soccer yet to be played, but Ronaldo’s scoring rate suggests this is more than just an impressive season. This could be something truly historic and Messi’s league record of 50 goals in a single season may be under threat.
Ronaldo has well and truly stolen the spotlight in 2014, but his teammates probably aren’t too bothered given that while he isn’t busy scoring he’s still managed to provide them with 0.6 assists per 90 minutes.
Sam Gregory is soccer analytics writer based in Montreal. Follow him on Twitter