The Major League Soccer season is new and the sample size is small, so it’s a perfect time to make sweeping generalizations about inflated statistics.
Well, we’ll try not to do that here, but there are some trendy bandwagons and sinking ships, if not some shiny numbers that have caught the eye only three or four games into the campaign. As teams and players begin to settle into their realistic place and pace, similar to a frantic beginning of an individual endurance race, their strides even this early in the season are significant to their progress.
Let’s begin with where MLS left us in 2015 with the Columbus Crew and Portland Timbers. Both teams’ paths were different leading into the playoffs and eventually the MLS Cup.
Columbus were one of the elite, Eastern Conference teams throughout last year, suffocating opponents through posting absurd passing numbers and possession percentages only to have the tip of their spear, Kei Kamara, finished tied as the league’s top scorer.
The passing and possession numbers are similarly dominant out of the gate in 2016 (82. percent pass success percentage, 56.6 percent possession), but they only have one point through three games for the worst record in the East. Their underlying expected goals numbers, both expected goals for (4.11 xG) and expected goals against (3.83 xGA), speak to their performances improving but it might take some time for them to meet their mean. (Expected goals in a metric that calculates the probability that any given shot will be converted into a goal while taking into account factors such as distance to the goal, angle to the goal, speed of attack and part of the body.)
Portland caught fire at the end of 2015 through formation changes that highlighted key players at a key time, which led them straight to their first MLS Cup. But, they currently find themselves in a similarly dreary area of the table as Columbus while being even more unlucky. The Timbers are putting up a best in the league expected goal differential (3.87 xGD) and expected goals for (7.09 xG), but haven’t been capitalizing.
At the start of the 2016 season I was adamant about Portland’s unlikelihood of repeating their heroic 2015 campaign, and Columbus being the club that has a better shot of repetition. Although I’d like to think that I’m free of such travesties, my pre-season opinion might have rested on an aesthetic bias of wanting a club who prefers to put the ball on the floor and dictate tempo to be victorious. Portland looks dangerous, and Diego Valeri looks like he’s poised to potentially have a career MLS year.
Valeri vs. RSL 3/20/2016 (left), Diaz vs. Montreal Impact 3/20/2016 (right) both consistently picking up balls in dangerous areas and servicing the box.
Let’s talk about the two magicians of the league so far: Valeri and Mauro Diaz of FC Dallas. Sure you could throw Ignacio Piatti, Sebastian Giovinco or Pedro Morales into the wizard conversation, but the cream is Valeri and Diaz.
Valeri is averaging 6.67 key passes per ninety minutes (key pass is a statistic measuring passes that end up in shots). Through three games he has served up 20 key passes without recording a single assist, has the sixth best xG + xA (expected assist) metric in MLS, and his central forward Fernando Adi has a league best 3.17 xG through Valeri’s distribution. He’s bossing the final third for Portland without reaping the rewards, but the final product will come.
Diaz is the best player on what I think is the best team in the league. As always, he’s connecting the phases of the game for FC Dallas in the hardest spaces of the pitch to consistently connect. He is in the Valeri echelon of expected assist numbers (1.63 xA, second best in MLS). If he can stay healthy and play most of the season, he’ll be the MVP (sweeping generalization from a three game sample size).
Amongst all of this goal scoring hoopla to loosely start the season, there have been three clubs who have been the defensive elite in MLS: Sporting KC, LA Galaxy and to some extent FC Dallas.
Yes, yes I know, Houston hammered FC Dallas with five goals in a rout. But, those are the only goals conceded by them, so that game specifically skews their statistics and they’ve looked resolute in the other matches.
The two, real studs across the back line are LA and Sporting Kansas City. Both sides are stubbornly conceding sub 3.1 xGA totals, while KC had only conceded one goal in actuality.
LA has found their stride and is competing with Portland for the two best xGDs in MLS, and the only two sides above 2 in the statistic.
Listen, it’s early and context is important but all of these are strong indicators. The statistical underbelly suggests Portland will get better, Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas will remain good, San Jose might be overachieving, Houston’s a bipolar mess and New England might be in serious trouble.
Take it for what you wish.
Data and xG table from American Soccer Analysis
Passing charts from MLSSoccer.com.
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