Against all odds, Major League Soccer will finish its 2020 regular season this Sunday with its annual Decision Day.
However, this year has an added wrinkle. The league is using points per game to determine who qualifies for the post-season. With a few clubs unable to make up their postponed matches due to positive cases of COVID-19 in those squads, MLS decided to switch to this format.
In doing so, one of Canada's teams – the Vancouver Whitecaps – are already eliminated from contention after the San Jose Earthquakes defeated LAFC on Wednesday night. But two of Canada's teams have everything to play for this weekend.
Here's what's at stake for Toronto FC and the Montreal Impact ahead of Decision Day.
Montreal Impact
Position: 9th in Eastern Conference
What's at stake: Playoff spot
Opponent: D.C. United
Thanks to the revised playoff format, 10 of 14 teams in the Eastern Conference qualify for the playoffs this year. The Montreal Impact is currently in ninth place, level with the Chicago Fire on 23 points (1.05 points per game). Both sides hold a slim lead over Atlanta United, Inter Miami and D.C. United.
Luckily for the Impact, they face D.C. in their regular-season finale. But anything other than a win puts them in jeopardy of missing out. Should Montreal draw or lose, it needs Atlanta and Chicago to lose, plus a Miami draw or loss.
A win-and-you're-in situation is always ideal, but having won just two of their last 12 games, it may not be as straightforward, even against a D.C. squad that's 13th in the conference. Since coach Ben Olsen was fired on Oct. 8, United has lost just one of its previous four matches, posting back-to-back victories entering Sunday.
The Impact are struggling on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. They've recorded 0.92 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes in their last 12 games, along with 1.53 expected goals against (xGA) per 90. Even though D.C. ranks second-from-bottom in xG per 90 this season, per FBRef.com, Montreal's lack of pace defensively, especially in transition, could be an issue.
But the Impact might have the advantage from dead balls. D.C. has conceded nine goals via set pieces this season, with only the San Jose Earthquakes (10) allowing more. Montreal has scored five thus far in 2020, although given their attacking struggles from open play, coach Thierry Henry should focus on corners and free kicks to gain that edge.
Toronto FC
Position: 2nd in Eastern Conference
What's at stake: Supporters' Shield
Opponent: New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC could claim its second Supporters' Shield title, but it is deadlocked on 44 points with the Philadelphia Union, who take on the New England Revolution.
Both teams come into Decision Day with slightly differing form. Toronto has two wins, a draw and two defeats in the last six games while Philadelphia only has one loss over that same span.
That is partially down to TFC's injuries. All of Pablo Piatti, Marky Delgado and Justin Morrow have missed recent matches along with Jozy Altidore, although the exploits of Ayo Akinola have significantly softened that blow.
In fact, Akinola's return to the lineup against Inter Miami on Nov. 1 helped TFC come from behind to win 2-1, with the young forward scoring the equalizer. The 20-year-old is the team's runaway leader in combined non-penalty xG and expected assists (xA), and has nine goals in 14 appearances in 2020. When he starts, there's a stronger chance of a TFC victory.
At #TFCLive, what Akinola and Pozuelo are doing is obviously ridiculous. But Richie Laryea
Data: @fbref pic.twitter.com/086I9zdY9z— Peter Galindo (@GalindoPW) November 3, 2020
The squad will surely have the likes of Piatti and Altidore during the playoffs, but even with some options unavailable, there is a decent opportunity to win a trophy for Toronto.
