The group stage at UEFA Euro 2020 has concluded, which means the knockout stage is upon us.
All of the favourites are still alive, but they are joined by the likes of Wales and the Czech Republic, who exceeded expectations in their respective groups. Then there's Denmark, who overcame the devastation of Christian Eriksen's collapse in their opening match versus Finland to qualify as the runner-up in Group B.
Every team will now feel confident about their chances of reaching the final at Wembley Stadium on July 11. Here is one key to every match in the round of 16.
The #EURO2020 Knockout stage begins today!
Which two teams do you think will be in the Final? pic.twitter.com/zJHmBRl9vI— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 26, 2021
Wales vs. Denmark: The midfield maestros
If you want high-octane soccer, you'll probably receive that in spades from Denmark and Wales. Both sides are among the fastest and direct teams at Euro 2020 when comparing passes per attacking sequence to the speed of those attacks, per Opta.
The drivers of those attacks have been Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (Denmark) and Aaron Ramsey (Wales). Therefore, it's safe to assume either player will be integral to their respective sides' chances of reaching the quarterfinals.
No other player has created more chances from open play than Hojbjerg, according to Opta. He's also been involved in more attacking sequences that ended in a shot (25) than any other player at the tournament. If the Welsh want to contain Denmark, it starts by nullifying Hojbjerg.
On the flip side, no other Welsh player has a higher expected goals (xG) than Ramsey's 1.64. The partnership with Gareth Bale, who is among the Euro 2020 leaders in most attacking categories, will be vital as well. Ramsey's off-the-ball runs and Bale's vision caused issues for every side in Group A – even the near-invincible Italy – so Denmark will have to be on high alert.
Italy vs. Austria: Italy's left flank
Italy might be the most impressive side to compete at Euro 2020 so far. They've shown an ability to score on the counter-attack, via the high press and by passing their opponents to death. One glance at Opta's team statistics back up those claims. Defensively, the Azzurri have yet to concede, so Austria's task looks impossible.
But Italy appears to have an Achilles' heel.
Leonardo Spinazzola has been integral to Italy's buildup, but there is a trade-off. It leaves the left side exposed to counters. Spinazzola (No. 4) was constantly pushing forward, as seen in Italy's average positioning against Switzerland on June 16, but the Swiss couldn't capitalize on this due to how deep they were sitting in their defensive third.
Austria has the ability to counter incisively and directly, racking up around 10 deep completions per 90 minutes, almost level with Italy's output. That could provide the first proper test for the Italian defence.
Netherlands vs. Czech Republic: Denzel Dumfries
If you had Denzel Dumfries as the Netherlands' top performer through three games, then kudos because he's been the key to the Dutch's success so far.
But it's not just the timely goals, it's the timely runs he executes from deeper positions before bursting towards the box, as seen in the graphics below.
That's why the task facing Czech Republic left-back Jan Boril is immense. He'll need ample cover from one of Tomas Soucek or Jakub Jankto to defend against Dumfries' runs, then if possible, counter swiftly into the open space vacated by the Dutch full-back.
Belgium vs. Portugal: The Belgian defence
The battle between Romelu Lukaku and Portuguese centre-backs Pepe and Ruben Dias is going to be fantastic, but Belgium will live and die by its defence.
Russian striker Artem Dzyuba singlehandedly bossed Belgium's centre-backs in its group-stage opener. Denmark's pressing forced a mistake out of Jason Denayer for Yussuf Poulsen's goal. There were even wide gaps for Finland to exploit, but they didn't have the cutting edge finish to capitalize.
That clearly isn't a bother for Portugal with Cristiano Ronaldo, although Diogo Jota could be equally impactful. Jota's off-the-ball movement routinely pulls defenders out of position and opens space for his teammates, as he often demonstrated with Liverpool last season.
Croatia vs. Spain: Modric vs. Busquets
There shouldn't be much surprise that Spain's best performance of the tournament coincided with the return of Sergio Busquets.
The Barcelona stalwart dictated the tempo and with a tireless Koke partnering him in midfield, Busquets wasn't forced to cover a ton of ground on his own.
Luka Modric is experiencing a similar renaissance for Croatia. Scotland stood off the Real Madrid midfielder at their peril in their group-stage finale as Modric dominated the proceedings with a goal and countless line-breaking passes.
It's easier said than done, but if Modric is man-marked and pinned in his defensive third, that'll behoove Spain. Ditto for Croatia against Busquets, who's become very passive defensively when he's isolated in midfield.
France vs. Switzerland: Pogba and Kante
It's easy to highlight the threat of N'Golo Kante and Paul Pogba, but it's an entirely different prospect to shut them down.
Portugal managed a 2-2 draw on the final matchday of Group F, but the French midfield pivot were equally influential as the previous two matches. Kante effortlessly broke up the Portuguese attacks and Pogba whipped 30-yard diagonal passes with ease. One of those balls led to Karim Benzema's strike.
Paul Pogba attempted more through balls (6) than any other player during the #EURO2020 group stage.
Keep an eye on them in the knockout rounds. pic.twitter.com/bo2vtRyebD— Squawka Football (@Squawka) June 23, 2021
The obvious route past France's midfield is to catch Les Bleus on the counter when Pogba roams further up the pitch. Targeting the flanks in that instance could pay off because Germany managed to create a handful of scoring chances by sending crosses to the back post during the opening match of Group F, but failed to convert.
England vs. Germany: The flanks
England coach Gareth Southgate has been criticized for deploying tactics out of "a fear of losing." But that strategy might benefit England.
The conservative approach has been especially evident with England's full-backs, who are some of the most gifted attackers in the squad. But as Portugal showed in their loss to Germany, being too lenient with defensive duties can be exploited.
Germany's wingbacks, particularly Robin Gosens, consistently targeted the space left behind by Portugal's full-backs and delivered man-of-the-match performances.
Defensively, England has been one of the best teams at Euro 2020. According to StatsBomb, the Three Lions have conceded the second-lowest expected goals at the tournament thus far and haven't allowed a shot via an opposing counter-attack.
Containing those wide areas before breaking forward when Germany is caught higher up the pitch might play into England's hands as a result.
Sweden vs. Ukraine: The Ukrainian midfield
It's no surprise that Ukraine's brightest attacking displays have coincided with Mykola Shaparenko starting in its midfield.
Shaparenko, 22, injects creativity in advanced positions and alleviates the attacking burden off Ruslan Malinovskyi's shoulders. That, in turn, leads to a dynamic and balanced Ukrainian midfield.
Shaparenko Malinovskyi #UKR pic.twitter.com/fCRnBqcW4C
— Between The Posts (@BetweenThePosts) June 17, 2021
With Sweden's discipline off the ball, Ukraine coach Andriy Shevchenko needs Shaparenko, Malinovskyi and Oleksandr Zinchenko in top form to pick a lock that few teams have seldom broken through.
