The last time a Canadian men's soccer team participated at an Olympics, the golden generation of the mid-1980s fell to Brazil in the quarterfinals of the 1984 Games in Los Angeles.
Thirty-seven years later, Canada's under-23 squad will try to break that nearly four decades-long drought from an Olympics as it kicks off its Concacaf Olympic qualifying campaign on Friday against El Salvador.
But unlike most of the teams at the Olympic qualifiers, Canada's senior team will be playing World Cup qualifiers on March 25 and 28. Coach Mauro Biello had a thinner pool of players to select from as a result. A COVID-19 outbreak within Toronto FC's team further limited Biello's options.
Here is an in-depth look at Canada as it prepares for its tournament opener vs. El Salvador on Friday.
How can Canada qualify for Tokyo?
Canada was drawn into Group B with Honduras, El Salvador and Haiti. Two of those opponents trigger some haunting memories for Canadians fans, from the infamous 8-1 loss to the Hondurans in 2012 to the 2019 Gold Cup collapse against the Haitians.
That being said, Canada avoided tournament host Mexico and the United States, who were drawn together in Group A. The Canadians must finish in the top two of Group B in order to advance to the semifinals, where they'll likely face one of Mexico or the U.S., the two favourites to win the tournament.
And here's the tournament format, taking place between March 20 - April 1
Tune in to @onesoccer to watch these games live! pic.twitter.com/CMnZE2qS63— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) January 10, 2020
The winners of each semifinal qualify for this summer's Olympics in Tokyo. It's an uphill battle for Canada, but that's the beauty of one-off games in a knockout tournament: anything can happen.
What are Canada's chances of qualification?
The odds of advancing to the semifinals are decent. Domestically, El Salvador and Honduras are in-season, while Haiti's previous campaign ended in January, so like Canada, the majority of its squad are lacking match sharpness.
Match fitness is clearly a factor for Biello, who called up six European-based players to his 20-man roster. The majority of those should feature considering they have optimal match fitness compared to their MLS and Canadian Premier League-based teammates.
To add to Biello's complications, the likes of Ross County midfielder Harry Paton weren't granted permission to leave their teams in Europe and the COVID-19 outbreak at TFC prevented players from joining the squad in Mexico. That said, there's still optimism about this roster.
"I think I have got a good balance of experienced players," said Biello. "Players that have been in the environment that have men's national team experience. There's also a good mix of players, some youthful players that have done well in the MLS, that have shown some really good recent form last year."
This is undoubtedly Canada's biggest obstacle. El Salvador's players are in mid-season form and eight of Haiti's 20-man roster are based in Europe, so fitness levels will be more optimal in those squads. Then there is Honduras, who has three of its four starting defenders from the 2019 Pan Am Games in its team, along with Douglas Martinez and Kervin Arriaga, who were key players in that side as well.
"For sure that group is not going to be easy," Biello admitted. "There's a lot of things that I've got to deal with in terms of now getting players in their rhythm. Some factors with weather and altitude and all those things. But I'm expecting to grow throughout this tournament and I think if we're able to grow throughout the tournament, it'll give us the best shot to finish in the top two and then take that final game to get us in the Olympics."
How will Canada line up?
Canada's opponents have the advantage in chemistry and fitness, so Biello has to optimize familiarity with the players selected from certain clubs.
Provided Biello opts for a 4-3-3, this is how the team should be deployed for the opener against El Salvador.
Playing matches every three days will lead to some rotation. But with everyone available, this would be a possible 11 based on chemistry and tactical fit.
James Pantemis, Zachary Brault-Guillard and Zorhan Bassong are teammates at CF Montreal. Derek Cornelius, Michael Baldisimo, Patrick Metcalfe, Ryan Raposo and Theo Bair are members of the Vancouver Whitecaps. Therefore, having a midfield trio of players who already know each other would be hugely beneficial.
Tactically, there are question marks. Firstly, Cornelius and Callum Montgomery are left-footed centre-backs, as is midfielder David Norman, who could be deployed as a ball-playing defender.
Luckily for Biello, Marcus Godinho has been deployed as a right-sided centre-back with Zwickau, plus he has senior experience, so he could theoretically partner Cornelius.
But that impacts the full-back depth, hence the late additions of Mohamed Farsi and Diyaeddine Abzi to the squad. Previously, Bassong was the only left-back. Now Abzi can deputize at full-back or winger, while Farsi can do the same on the opposite flank.
While Bassong is a solid two-way full-back, Zachary Brault-Guillard has been routinely exposed in transition by opponents. Brault-Guillard had a 34.6 per cent tackling success rate against dribblers in MLS last season, an indicator that he can be a target for counter-attacking teams.
Given the dearth of right-footed options at centre-back, coupled with York United's willingness to release Abzi for the tournament, it's surprising Biello didn't call up Chrisnovic N'Sa. The 21-year-old was a finalist for the CPL's U-21 player of the year award in 2020, plus he can fill other positions like right-back and midfield. But he's a tremendous defender with strong technique, as seen in his statistical radar below.
In midfield, there's Baldisimo, who is a brilliant orchestrator. Baldisimo's ability to read the game, progress the ball and contribute defensively make him a no-brainer for that role. Metcalfe should provide protection for the right-back when he pushes up while also covering ground centrally. Raposo, or former Toronto FC midfielder Aidan Daniels, would be the advanced playmaker of sorts.
Michael Baldisimo led #VWFC in:
Passes (40/49)
Crosses (1/2)
Take-ons (3/4)
He was second in recoveries (7) and passes in final third (7/10).
I say it again: the fact he doesn’t start more is baffling to me. pic.twitter.com/PYXY2YX3VI— Peter Galindo (@GalindoPW) October 28, 2020
In the final third, Lucas Dias will be the creative spark whilst pressing and harrying opponents on the left wing. Tajon Buchanan should be on the opposite wing as he tries to build on an impressive 2020 season. Bair is favoured to lead the line after an outstanding January camp with the senior men's national team.
Alternatively, Montgomery could be the right-sided centre-back as he's decent with his right foot. Lucas Dias may also stay in his preferred No. 10 role with Ballou Tabla or Charles-Andreas Brym, who's in mid-season form with Mouscron in Belgium, slotting in on the left.
Who are the Canadian players to watch?
Dias could be one of the tournament's most exciting players, let alone on Canada. The 18-year-old plays for Sporting CP's U-23 team and has been sensational ever since his debut.
The teenager loves to progress the ball and press all over the pitch, as seen in the pressure regains category in his statistical radar below.
"This is a young player that we've been following for almost six months," said Biello. "He has rhythm, he's been playing, he's doing well over there. Yes, it's a young player, it's a player that I've had some remote conversations with, gone over some of the tactics. It's a player that I feel could fit in and contribute to this team based on his qualities, as a player that could play a final pass, that could receive a ball between the lines, connect triangles, so we're excited about him."
Buchanan is another name that immediately jumps to mind. The winger had a tremendous season in 2020, showing off his creativity and improvisation with the New England Revolution. If he improves his decision-making, that should limit his high number of turnovers.
Godinho, Brault-Guillard and Meilleur-Giguere are also worth monitoring for the reasons noted in the previous section. But if fans want entertainment, look no further than Buchanan and Dias, who could be key players for Canada as it attempts to punch its ticket to Tokyo.
