There is a strong argument to be made that Diego Simeone is the best coach in world right now.
What Simeone accomplished last year with Atletico Madrid was nothing short of remarkable. Atletico bested two of the biggest superpowers of European football in Real Madrid and Barcelona to win La Liga, and came within minutes of a Champions League crown—all of this after losing arguably its best player, Radamel Falcao, that summer.
Coming into the 2014-15 season, Atletico were similarly unable to hold onto many key players, losing Diego Costa, Felipe Luis and Thibaut Courtois to Chelsea, David Villa to New York City FC and Adrian Lopez to FC Porto. Yet once again Simeone has kept Atletico Madrid competitive and although repeating as La Liga champions may be just out of reach, the Champions League is a whole different story.
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Los Colchoneros will look to overturn a 1-0 first leg deficit this week when they face Bayer Leverkusen at the Vicente Calderon, which raises the question of whether or not Atletico is strong enough to make it back to the final?
Last year Atletico Madrid’s greatest strength was their defensive record. On course to the La Liga title they only conceded 0.68 goals per game. This year that defensive record is a little weaker with Aleti conceding 0.85 goals per game, but still quite impressive.
Although Simeone’s side is conceding more goals than they did last year they are actually giving up fewer shots. Last year in La Liga, Atletico conceded 9.1 shots per game. This year they’re only allowing 8.3 shots. This trend is also mirrored in the Champions League. Last season Atletico allowed 11.3 shots per game in the group stage, whereas this year they’ve only allowed 9.2 per game in a more difficult group that included Italian champions Juventus.
Unsurprisingly, it’s on the other side of the ball where Atletico Madrid is struggling to repeat their performances of last season.
It was never going to be easy to replace Diego Costa who averaged 0.81 goals and 3.27 shots per 90 minutes last season. Despite not being the most well rounded of players, Costa has continued his blistering goal scoring pace at Chelsea from right where he left off at Atletico. His 2013-14 player radar shows just how impressive his goal scoring contributions were at Atleti.
Since his departure Atletico’s shooting volume has dropped from 13.3 shots to 11.4 shots per game in La Liga. Although a drop off of nearly two shots looks like a red flag, Atletico have actually done a pretty decent job of filling the hole that Costa left at the club.
During the summer the club made two major attacking additions: Antoine Griezmann and Mario Mandzukic, and both have enjoyed excellent debut seasons.
Griezmann is averaging 0.83 goals per 90 minutes this season, which is actually a higher goal-scoring rate than Costa had last season. He is shooting less than Costa did, which suggests that this pace may not be sustainable, but nonetheless it is still an impressive achievement.
As his player radar suggests, Griezmann is also a bit more of a versatile player than Costa.
Griezmann already had experience playing in La Liga and was coming off a very good season with Real Sociedad when he joined Atletico, so it wasn’t a huge surprise that he’s carried that form over to his new club. Mandzukic on the other hand was seen as a bit more of a risk for Atletico.
The ex-Bayern Munich striker admitted that he wasn’t completely comfortable with Pep Guardiola’s approach and had also never been called upon as the focal point of the Bayern attack like he would inevitably be asked to do at times with Atletico Madrid. It turns out these concerns were over blown.
Mandzukic has done quite nicely, scoring 0.63 goals per 90 minutes—0.47 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes—and averaging 2.68 shots per 90 minutes.
The additions of Mandzukic and Griezmann have helped dampen the blow of Costa’s departure, but Simeone still went out looking for another piece during the January transfer window and found one in the shape of Fernando Torres.
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Torres, who made his name at Atletico Madrid before joining Liverpool, has only played a handful of games so far this season highlighted by a couple of goals in the Copa Del Rey. Given his limited playing time it is hard to know exactly what his impact will be going forward. That being said adding an extra forward capable of scoring at the top level can’t hurt an Atletico team looking to get their shot numbers back up to what they were in 2013-14.
So where does this leave the Spanish club in the Champions League? Well they made the final last year off a solid defensive record, and their defence looks just as miserly this season. The problem seems to be going forward where despite adding several exciting attacking players they still haven’t managed to replicate the same shot volume as 2013-14.
For Atletico Madrid to return to the Champions League final they don’t need an explosive attack like Real Madrid’s or Barcelona’s, because their defensive record will make up for that.
But what they do need is more shots and Simeone’s decision to get Torres in the January window suggests he is aware of the problem. The question remains will these additions be enough to take Atletico to the final in Berlin and go that small extra step further than last season?
Sam Gregory is soccer analytics writer based in Montreal. Follow him on Twitter