The 2019-20 Bundesliga season wraps up on Saturday with two big questions left to be answered.
Bayern Munich has already clinched an eighth straight title, but there are two Champions League spots up for grabs with three teams in contention. RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach are currently occupying the positions, but Bayer Leverkusen is just two points adrift of the top four.
At the bottom of the table, Fortuna Düsseldorf is two points up on Werder Bremen in 16th place, good enough for a relegation playoff against the third-place finisher from the second division. Bremen is set for automatic demotion, but can salvage its Bundesliga status.
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Here’s what you need to know ahead of the 34th and final matchday of the Bundesliga season.
Champions League qualification on the line
As Saturday approaches, RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach occupy third and fourth place, respectively. But Bayer Leverkusen is only two points behind Gladbach for that final Champions League berth.
To make matters more intriguing, Gladbach will likely face Hertha Berlin without its top scorers in Alassane Plea and Marcus Thuram, who are both injured.
RB Leipzig plays Augsburg and is favoured to win, but a draw would be enough to secure Champions League football. Leipzig has a combined 75 per cent chance to avoid defeat, per FiveThirtyEight.
However, FiveThirtyEight gives Gladbach a 91 per cent probability of qualifying for the Champions League, even with the risk of missing Plea and Thuram.
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Losing both forwards would be catastrophic for Gladbach, especially against a resurgent Hertha. Plea and Thuram are the team’s leaders in expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) by a fairly wide margin, per Understat. Breel Embolo could deputize for one of them, but if neither features, that will cause a headache for coach Marco Rose.
Gladbach coped without both players against bottom-of-the-table Paderborn last week, but Hertha is a far stiffer challenge. With Matheus Cunha fit and firing again, the Berliners will pose a significant threat on the counter with the Brazilian’s flair, improvisation and willingness to shoot.
Additionally, Hertha’s defence has been stingier as of late. It held Leverkusen to just 11 shots on Matchday 33 and conceded just 0.68 xG, according to Understat. Even in the loss to Borussia Dortmund on June 6, the Bundesliga runners-up were held at bay for most of the game.
That’s why it would behoove Gladbach to have one of their French talismen from the start. Plea has a stronger chance of playing than Thuram, who could miss the finale with an ankle injury.
Obviously Leverkusen’s fate is out of the team’s hands, but even a draw in Gladbach’s match would help Die Werkself as they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Will Sancho, Havertz play their final Bundesliga matches?
Champions League qualification or not, there will be plenty of focus on Bayer Leverkusen surrounding the future of Kai Havertz. The same goes for Jadon Sancho at Borussia Dortmund.
Both players have been linked to moves abroad in recent weeks. Havertz is supposedly the subject of an offer of around £80 million (CAD$135 million) from Chelsea, per Football-London, with Real Madrid also sniffing around. The 21-year-old could leave Leverkusen depending on whether they qualify for the Champions League, ensuring a much-needed influx of cash during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Like Leverkusen, Dortmund’s revenue streams will be impacted by the pandemic, which could make a Sancho sale very tantalizing. The majority of clubs across the planet are dealing with similar ramifications, and with the English forward rated at around €130 million (CAD$200 million), that price severely limits the number of potential suitors. Manchester United has been heavily linked in the past, but whether they actually cough up the required funds during these uncertain times is a mystery.
Most key passes from open play in the Bundesliga this season:
T. Muller — 71
J. Sancho — 53
K. HAVERTZ — 52@BenMcAleer1 runs the rule over the in-demand Bayer Leverkusen youngster https://t.co/lWdogLcEJ1— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) June 10, 2020
With Dortmund qualifying for the Champions League, that will ensure revenue keeps rolling in. Plus, selling players that are surplus to requirements could bring in more money.
The situation is trickier at Leverkusen. If it fails to qualify for the Champions League, Havertz may want to leave anyways and the club’s hands will be tied.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, Werder Bremen fight to survive
With all of the drama we’ve experienced over the last few weeks in the relegation battle, it would be fitting for another twist to impact the outcome.
Fortuna Düsseldorf controls its destiny with a two-point lead over Werder Bremen. Both sides have seemingly winnable matches against Union Berlin and FC Köln, respectively, who have nothing on the line.
Bremen has one major Achilles heel, and that’s defending in the air. No one has conceded more goals via set pieces this season than Werder (19), via WhoScored.com, which is troublesome given its opponent. Köln has struck 16 times off set pieces, second only to RB Leipzig this year.
Düsseldorf has the edge defensively, having conceded fewer shots per 90 minutes (13.8) and goals (64). The issue is Fortuna’s attack, which ranks dead last in shot attempts per 90 and is practically level in total xG with Bremen.
Luckily for Fortuna, Union Berlin isn’t the most potent team offensively, but that hasn’t stopped Düsseldorf from imploding prior to the weekend.
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