Sportsnet’s soccer panel offer their picks, predictions and analysis of the second leg matches from the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League.
Tuesday programming alert: Watch Benifca v Zenit live on Sportsnet and Arsenal v AC Milan live on Sportsnet World starting at 2:30 pm ET.
Wednesday programming alert: Watch Barcelona v Leverkusen live on Sportsnet and APOEL v Lyon live on Sportsnet World starting at 2:30 pm ET.
Benfica vs. Zenit
(Zenit leads 3-2 on aggregate)
Gerry Dobson, Sportsnet: Even though Benfica lost the first leg in Russia they must be confident. Conditions were brutally cold and they still came away with two crucial away goals. There must surely be concern, however, as sloppy defending allowed the home side to conjure up a late winner. Benfica also lost 3-2 to top-of-table Porto in league play Friday and have dropped into a second place tie with Braga. However, they have enough class to eliminate the Russians Tuesday as they’ve won 15 of their last 19 home European matches. Watch out for Osacr Cardozo.
Prediction: Benfica wins 2-0 to advance
John Molinaro, sportsnet.ca: Despite Benfica’s recent mis-steps on the domestic front, you still have to favour the Portuguese to progress here. Benfica is unbeaten at home against Russian opponents in European competition (two wins and two draws with just one goal against). But the most important advantage Benfica has is the two away goals, and it’s hard to imagine them losing by two goals at home where they have proven to be hard to beat in Europe over the past two seasons.
Prediction: Benfica wins 1-0 to advance
Thomas Michalakos, sportsnet.ca: The key factor in why Benfica was able to secure two crucial away goals in the first leg will be on the bench, as Yuri Zhevnov makes room for the return of Vyacheslav Malafeev in the Zenit goal. That alone will be a major turning point in the match on Tuesday. Benfica are also going through their first rough patch of the season, losing to rivals FC Porto on Friday at home, ending their undefeated record at the Estadio da Luz. The Russians also have a healthy Aleksandr Kerzhakov firing on all cylinders, coming off an impressive two-goal performance against CSKA Moscow on Saturday. Benfica are notorious underachievers, and by the looks of it the decline in form is starting in Lisbon. The defensive lapse in the first leg, which led to the winner, will turn out to be the crucial decider.
Prediction: 1-1 draw, Zenit advances
Arsenal vs. AC Milan
(AC Milan leads 4-0 on aggregate)
Dobson: If there’s any consolation for Arsenal from the first leg, it’s the knowledge that they can score goals and launch comebacks. After all, they spotted Spurs the first two goals in a league match recently and stormed back with five straight to win convincingly. The problem is they conceded two right out of the gate. A clean sheet is a must for the Gunners against a Milan side that are unbeaten in two visits to the North London club. Milan is also top of Serie A and has scored far more goals than any other team in the league. They’re coming off a 4-0 thumping of Palermo, in a match that saw Zlatan Ibrahimovic score three times. In total, the Swede has 18 goals in 20 league games — not bad. Arsenal simply won’t be able to keep the Italians off the scoreboard, and that will spell the end.
Prediction: Milan wins 2-1 to advance
Molinaro: There’s no doubt that the Gunners are riding high on confidence after a great comeback win over Tottenham two weeks ago and a last-minute victory over Liverpool on the weekend. The win against Spurs was particularly special, as Arsenal stormed back after going down two goals. But coming from behind against Tottenham is one thing; doing it against the Italian champions is quite another. And it’s not just enough for Arsenal to score five goals — they have to win by five goals. I just can’t see them shutting out the rossoneri, who are scoring for fun lately. Arsenal will likely salvage some pride, but not the tie.
Prediction: 2-2 draw, Milan advances
Michalakos: Unfortunately for the Gunners, this is where their European adventure ends. After laying an egg in the opening leg, five goals will be just too hard to overcome, even with Robin van Persie leading the charge. You never know which Arsenal will show up on a match-day; they are just too inconsistent and unpredictable. Eight years ago, AC Milan did blow a three-goal advantage in the knockout stages against Deportivo La Coruna, but a similar showing is highly unlikely. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is coming off an impressive hat trick over the weekend, and Milan just seems to be in better shape at the moment. But I will not go as far to say it is impossible. If Wenger can take anything into the match, it is that even at their worst they somehow managed to squeak out a victory at Anfield on Saturday, and who’s to say what can be achieved when they are at their best.
Prediction: Arsenal wins 3-1, Milan advances
Barcelona vs. Bayer Leverkusen
(Barcelona leads 3-1 on aggregate)
Dobson: It will require something of a miracle for Bayer Leverkusen to overturn a 3-1 deficit at the Camp Nou this week. Heck, it would require a miracle to overcome even a one-goal deficit. The Germans are headed into a stadium where the home team has won nine straight matches against Bundesliga opposition. Barcelona is also unbeaten in its last 13 home European matches — and they haven’t lost at home in the league either. They did look suspect without the suspended Lionel Messi in a 3-1 league win over Sporting on the weekend but they also went down a man in that match. They could probably play the entire 90 with 10 men on Wednesday and still prevail. Leverkusen is coming off a big league win over Bayern Munich, but they’re not the only ones to defeat the struggling German giants these days.
Prediction: Barcelona wins 3-0 to advance
Molinaro Barcelona is a distant second in la liga behind Real Madrid, but the Catalans can still upstage their archrivals by winning this competition. Even without Alexis Sanchez (out with a leg injury) and David Villa (long-term injury), Barcelona is still an attacking dynamic force –- they brushed aside Sporting Gijon in the league on the weekend without the suspended Lionel Messi. The Argentine is coming off a hat trick performance in Argentina’s friendly over Switzerland last week, and you just know he’s anxious to run wild on the Germans.
Prediction: Barcelona wins 3-0 to advance
Michalakos: I do not expect this to be a contest at all, but instead a formality for a team going through the motions and hoping not to get embarrassed. The odds of Bayer Leverkusen winning by three clear goals at the Camp Nou are astronomical at best. Barcelona is almost impossible to break down at home and the German club does not possess the necessary tools to get the job done. Had they showed up for more than 45 minutes in the first leg, the situation might have been different. A positive result was needed in Leverkusen for Robin Dutt’s side to have even the slightest chance of progression. It is hard not to be in awe of Barcelona, whether it be by giving them too much respect on the pitch or arguing with your teammates on who will get to swap shirts with Lionel Messi — Leverkusen were at fault for both. Pep Guardiola will definitely give some of his regulars the night off, relying on the Catalan kids to get the job done. However, Messi should be in the line-up after having to sit out over the weekend due to a suspension — the likelihood of the Argentine missing two consecutive matches is slim.
Prediction: Barcelona wins 4-0 to advance
APOEL vs. Lyon
(Lyon leads 1-0 on aggregate)
Dobson: This is a tricky one, especially for the visitors. Lyon did secure a 1-0 victory at home in the first leg, and they dominated that game, but they left in frustration because they didn’t do more to put this tie away. As it is they have to travel to Cyprus, a very difficult place to play. Conceding two goals could spell disaster. They’re also coming off a 2-0 loss to lowly Nancy in Ligue 1. That’s eight away league losses, which doesn’t bode well. It’s their first visit to Cyprus, staring down a team that fancies their chances. This one might come down to extra time and penalties. Let’s hope not. I hate penalties and still think Lyon will prevail.
Prediction: 1-1 draw, Lyon Advances
Molinaro: The French will be feeling a little an uneasy heading to Cyprus after such a close result at home in the first leg. But Lyon still has to be favoured to move on to the next round. APOEL will likely stick to their defensive game-plan, soaking up pressure and hitting out on Lyon on the counter. Look for the French to pour on the pressure and try to get an early goal. If they do, that will force APOEL to switch tactics as they try to overcome a 2-0 aggregate deficit. At that point, it’ll be game over as the Cypriots don’t have the firepower to beat a top team like Lyon.
Prediction: Lyon wins 1-0 to advance
Michalakos: This will be the match I will be focusing much of my attention on Wednesday, as it has upset written all over it. Lyon has struggled to score goals in Europe, and APOEL play an extremely defensive system that will prove to be difficult to break down at home. The Cypriots can achieve the unimaginable by qualifying for a place in the quarter-finals, and they’re capable of grinding out a result with their defensive-minded tactics that looked to frustrate Les Gones in the first leg. Lyon comes into the contest low on confidence, following a 2-0 loss away to Nancy on the weekend. The visitors will need to score quickly to relieve some of the pressure, and force APOEL to open up and attack. The longer it stays goalless, the more it favours the Cypriots. Expect extra-time or even penalties — a major upset is on the horizon.
Prediction: APOEL wins 2-0 to advance