A surging Barcelona has displaced Real Madrid from top spot in the La Liga standings, and the Catalans now have the chance to open up a four-point lead with a win in El Clasico on Sunday.
Here’s why Barcelona is bound to beat Real Madrid at Camp Nou.
Momentum
In sports, as in life, momentum counts for a lot. When some building, unquantifiable force is pushing in your favour, things just fall into place; when that force is against you, watch out. Momentum is on Barcelona’s side these days. The Catalans have won their last six games in all competitions, and have just one loss in their last 18.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, have sputtered a bit of late, with just one win in their last four, and have five losses and two draws in their last 16 in all competitions.
Yeah, this could be one of those opportunities to shift momentum dramatically. But it won’t be. Why? Well…
Injuries
Because Madrid are facing real injury problems. Los Blancos will be without Colombian star James Rodriguez on the weekend, a foot injury likely keeping him out of the clash. Yes, Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo are healthy, but any team feels the loss of a player such as Rodriguez, who’s string-pulling passes and nose for net have earned him eight goals and seven assists this season.
Really, Madrid is just limping out of injury hell, with Sergio Ramos, Fabio Coentrao, Luka Modric, Sami Khedira and Marcelo all being forced off the teamsheet in recent weeks. That partly explains the lack of form, the defensive frailty (see below) and—depending on how healthy you think the patched-up team really is—may hint at struggles to come.
Barca’s offence vs Real’s defence
Barcelona will be willing and able to expose and weakness under which the Madridistas may be labouring. Barca’s attacking trio is as scary a prospect for defenders as there is in world soccer: Neymar (17 goals, four assists), Lionel Messi (32 goals, 14 assists, both league-leading stats), and Luis Suarez (seven goals, nine assists). Sure, Suarez took some time to find his form in Spain, but he’s on it now, with eight goals in all competitions since mid-February.
In all, Barcelona has scored 78 goals, the most in La Liga (one more than Real, by the way) and allowed just 16, the least in La Liga.
Real Madrid, for their part, are weak at the back. Doing the small things poorly—allowing too many shots, making too few tackles and too few interceptions—means they’re doing the big thing wrong: they’ve allowed 24 goals in La Liga. That ties them for fifth-best in Spain. Being only as defensively sound as Villarreal is pretty much a disaster by Madrid’s lofty standards.
Goalkeeping
Time was, Iker Casillas was unimpeachably the best keeper in Spain. The ultimate No. 1. The brick wall. “The Saint.”
No longer.
The 33-year-old has fallen from grace this season, with a series of high-profile blunders and sub-standard performances. He dropped four against rivals Atletico Madrid in February; he dropped another ugly four against Schalke in the Champions League, almost costing Real a quarterfinals berth.
Madrid back-up Keilor Navas hasn’t been much better.
Claudio Bravo, on the other hand, has been solid-to-stellar in Barcelona’s net. Before the first Clasico of the year broke his clean sheet streak back in October, Bravo was on a run of eight goalless games. He’s been playing at a half-goal-a-game rate since. His 15 clean sheets leads the league, as does his 21 wins, ditto his 16 goals against (amongst goalkeepers who’ve played more than 15 games).
Soccer Central podcast: SPORTSNET.CA’s Soccer Central podcast, hosted by John Molinaro and James Sharman, takes an in-depth look at the beautiful game and offers timely and thoughtful analysis on the sport’s biggest issues. To listen and subscribe to the podcast, CLICK HERE.
