GDANSK, POLAND — Leave it to the Dutch and English to provide such contrasting surprises at Euro 2012.
The Netherlands are on the verge of an early exit while England is on the cusp of a quarter-final berth, predicaments that were not exactly certain coming into the tournament in Poland and Ukraine.
England’s come from behind 3-2 win over Sweden displayed all of the characteristics that had been missing over recent years, when it went into tournaments followed by much more hype and talent but without grit, composure and a little fortune.
England’s young stars — Theo Walcott, Danny Welbeck and Andy Carroll — carried the Three Lions to an improbable victory after the usual script looked certain to have been written when it allowed a 1-0 lead become a 2-1 deficit.
England’s youngsters come into a major championship with optimal conditions to succeed: a chance to play, and without the hype and ballyhoo of expectations that always accompanies it and, ultimately, always leaves it disappointed.
The Netherlands, meanwhile, has suddenly lost its mojo following a World Cup final and near perfect European Championship qualifying campaign.
Robin van Persie may be the English league’s top player, but one goal from 11 shots is unthinkable from the Arsenal striker. Arjen Robben’s darting runs are well known and being well defended. Holland’s defence is anchored by two journeymen centre-backs that have been exposed. Plus, Wesley Sneijder and Rafael van der Vaart are coming off unimpressive club seasons.
As coach Bert van Marwijk said following the 2-1 loss to Germany, the Netherlands, for the first time in living memory, doesn’t have enough “lef,” a Dutch word symbolizing nerve, dare, and guts all mixed in together.
The Dutch implosion in Group B leaves either Portugal or Denmark in prime position to scoop up second place while the English challenge upstart France for top spot in Group D.
In terms of the overall tournament, the favorites remain on course for the Kiev final on July 1.
Spain’s 4-0 rout of Ireland marked the return of the Fernando Torres we all love to watch while also providing a springboard for the defending champions’ midfield engine to find its stride. David Silva scored one of the goals of the tournament against the Irish and has a tournament best three assists, while Cesc Fabregas offers another attacking option with the Barcelona forward tied with Torres on two goals. Barring a surprise Monday night, Spain should beat Croatia to finish top of Group C and play either the French or English in Donetsk on June 23.
Italy is counting on Spain to be its lifeline. A victory over Ireland coupled with a Spanish win over Croatia lifts the Azzurri into the last eight. There is fear that Spain and Croatia could agree on a 2-2 draw that would leave the Italians out, as what happened eight years ago, courtesy of that same result between Denmark and Sweden. Many of my Spanish colleagues would love to see Italy eliminated, but I think they will hang on to advance, and will be dangerous foe for whichever team it plays from Group D, although Mario Balotelli’s disappearing act comes at the worst moment.
Germany, the other favorite, is on course for a third straight meeting with World Cup champion Spain at a major tournament. Should the pair finish top of their groups, the Germans have a chance to snap that two-game losing streak.
The Netherlands must beat Portugal by two goals and hope the Germans beat Denmark to advance. Cristiano Ronaldo will have little excuse to offer if he can’t put the Portuguese into the last eight. The Real Madrid superstar, who scored 60 goals this season, has no goals from 11 shots but at least the Portuguese haven’t lost to the Dutch in 20 years.
Greece will need nothing short of a 2004-type miracle to advance.
Giorgos Karagounis will equal the Greek record of 120 caps against Russia, and the standout captain, who scored the opening goal in the Mediterranean nation’s surreal 2004 championship run, will have to guide his country past Russia for the first time in their fourth European Championship meeting. A Greece-Germany quarter-final matchup is the perfect story line amid the Eurozone’s financial crisis, with Greek elections coming on the same day as Germany plays.
Poland should provide at least one of the co-hosts with a team in the last eight as Tomas Rosicky’s likely absence leaves a depleted Czech Republic with too little to make up for too much. The Poles must win in Wroclaw to advance, while the Czechs will go through with a draw as long as the Greeks win by fewer than six goals.
Quarter-final matchup predictions: Russia (1A) vs. Portugal (2B); Germany (1B) vs. Poland (2A); Spain (1C) vs. England (2D); France (1D) vs. Italy (2C).
Paul Logothetis is a Madrid-based reporter who is in Poland and Ukraine covering Euro 2012 for sportsnet.ca. Follow Paul on Twitter.