Since 2008, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have each won the Ballon d’Or as the world’s best player of the year five times.
Even when one of the two didn’t claim the award, the other finished second in the voting nine times out of 10. Only Andres Iniesta has broken up the Messi-Ronaldo duopoly in the last 10 years, when he was the runner-up in 2010.
Now, however, there may be a change. Argentina crashed out of the 2018 FIFA World Cup in the last 16, as did Portugal, thus hurting Messi’s and Ronaldo’s chances of winning the award for a sixth time. After a sensational Premier League season with Liverpool, Mohamed Salah couldn’t drag Egypt into the knockout stage of the World Cup.
Might a non-forward, from a country that isn’t considered one of the sport’s superpowers, claim the 2018 Ballon d’Or during Monday’s gala ceremony in Paris?
Luka Modric received the Golden Ball as the MVP of the 2018 World Cup, and rightfully so. There is also a strong argument that he should win the Ballon d’Or as the world’s player of the year, as well.
The bookies seem to agree, too. Due to poor World Cup performances, Messi is not among the leading candidates to claim the award.
Ronaldo, not surprisingly, is trailing closely behind along with Antoine Griezmann of Atletico Madrid and France, who is gaining momentum by the day.
But Modric is the odds-on favourite. Not only did Croatia reach its first-ever World Cup final, the midfield maestro was the team’s best and most consistent player in Russia. Scoring goals is arguably the most difficult aspect of the game, but dictating the tempo in a high-stakes tournament is right up there, too.
No player at the World Cup covered as much ground or logged as many minutes as Modric. He was among the top 10 in key passes per game, via WhoScored.com. Modric attempted an average of 69 passes per match with an 87 per cent completion rate, which helped him shatter a couple of national team records.
Luka Modric has had himself one hell of a #WorldCup…
Croatia's joint-top scorer (2)
Most distance covered (63km)
Most minutes played (604)
Most accurate set-pieces taken (30)
Fourth-most chances created (16) pic.twitter.com/OI6dqixHvM
— TheFootballRepublic (@TheFootballRep) July 13, 2018
When the pressure ramped up as the knockout stage progressed, Modric became more integral to the Croatian cause. Whether he was asked to play direct or keep it short and concise with his passing, the midfielder obliged.
At Real Madrid last season, Modric was crucial to the team’s run to its third straight UEFA Champions League title. He delivered a masterclass in the final against Liverpool, helping los blancos bypass the counter-pressing from the Reds en route to a 3-1 victory.
Anyone who watches Modric regularly sees how consistently brilliant he is in the midfield, be it in La Liga or the Champions League. If not for the Croatian virtuoso, Real Madrid might not have lifted the European Cup this year.
Compare that to Messi. His Barcelona was eliminated in the quarterfinals of the Champions League and Argentina crashed out of the World Cup by the round of 16. That’s not entirely his fault, but voters – specifically journalists – will use that against him.
The same might occur with Ronaldo due to the World Cup. Despite his best efforts, Portugal couldn’t get by stingy Uruguay, and the Euro 2016 winners were sent home in the first knockout round.
Salah, also deemed a Ballon d’Or favourite before the World Cup, unfortunately missed the start of the tournament due to the shoulder injury he suffered in the Champions League final. Salah also hasn’t been as breathtaking this season with Liverpool compared to his sensational 2017-18 campaign.
Fair or not, World Cup results matter, even when determining an individual award in a team sport.
Modric was the best player on a World Cup finalist and was integral to a Champions League triumph. The only player who matches those results is his Real Madrid teammate Raphael Varane. As incredible as he is, it’s arguable that Modric was more influential for his country, and even at Madrid, than Varane.
Ronaldo was the top scorer in the Champions League and has scored 45 goals this calendar year, including four at the World Cup. However, no goals in the semifinals or final of the Champions League, plus his slow finish to the World Cup might hinder his argument.
Griezmann, on the other hand, doesn’t have the club accolades to back up his candidacy. Atletico Madrid didn’t win La Liga and crashed out of the Champions League in the group stage. Los Colchoneros salvaged their European campaign by winning Europa League, although it’s not exactly an equal achievement to Real Madrid’s title.
This only strengthens Modric’s status as the current favourite for the Ballon d’Or.
A version of this story was first published on July 17, 2018.
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